Author: Willis Bennett

June Should Trade to May

Daily Continuous

June maintained a slight premium to the expiring May contract, but that premium is likely to eliminated early in June’s life as prompt. The market is developing the Q2 lows and this week will clearly be the first attempt at establishing those lows.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Testing the Lows

Daily Continuation

Can’t get more bearish going into expiration (options today, May on Tuesday) as prices are testing the support zone that has remained firm for a long period of time. A contrarian would suggest that prices may rise. I will remain committed to not trading May but rather look at some summer spreads as prices continue to decline.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Price Headed to Lows Into Expiration

Weekly Continuous

Prompt gas traded deeper into a zone of mathematical support derived from the decline from the February expiration high and has done so by closing lower in six of the last seven weeks (the only exception was week ending 03/27 when prompt gas closed unchanged from the previous week)…and on a continuation basis twelve of the fourteen weeks since prompt February printed $7.827 before going off the board at $7.460. That persistent decline has left the gas market oversold and approaching but not yet closing into its historical EXTREME zone and 26.7% below its 40 – weeks SMA.

A week ago, the consensus of technical indicators, which had been neutral for seven weeks with a fluctuating bias, was negative for the first time since the decline to the Q3 ’25 low. This week with prompt gas falling to the lowest weekly close since August ’24 the consensus improved, back to neutral.

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Support Breaks???

Daily Continuous

After the storage data gave strength to the bears, taking price down to and breaking the zone.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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No Bias Definition

Daily Continuous

No change in the range or the establishment of a bias change. As mentioned add positions on tests of support.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00 $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Headed to Test Support

Daily Continuous

Even with the high close last week, the expectations were that prices would return to declining bias and that is happened yesterday. The question now is concerning how many bears want to take prices back to last week’s low (also the low from Oct,24) just to find a similar result. Take advantage of declines to support as discussed previously.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

In Search of a Low

Weekly Continuous

May was offered through the August 2025 low, to the lowest price traded since November ’24, and into the zone of support mathematically derived from the continuation decline from the February high before recovering to end the week with a gain. While modest, .026…the higher weekly close was the first for the May contract and on a continuation basis since March 10th. The recovery from a lower low to close back above the ’25 annual low had the look of a rejection of prompt gas below $2.60, but rather as probing for a lower price level that was rejected last August. Volume for the week was higher (modestly), and while technically positive (with the rally) comes with a caveat.

The satisfaction of a mathematical objective (test of mid term support), recovery from a lower low to close back above a previous significant low, and the unwinding of “bear spreads” (talked about a couple of weeks ago) are characteristic of the gas market attempting to define a seasonal low (I am just not convinced we won’t see a test of $2.60’s again). Volume over the last three days was significantly less than during Tuesday’s decline to the first daily close below $2.622 (the ’25 annual low)…and even though the prompt managed a close above short – term declining trend line resistance that violation was not accompanied by a volume increase. I would expect a small rally which will likely fail at resistance (numerous places up to and including $3.00), then likely retest the water in the $2.60’s.

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Run Off the Lows

Daily Continuous

After testing the mid-term support zone, prices found a bid to settle the week up (rare as that is). Go into some of the implications from that event in the Weekly section– from a daily technical perspective, I am going to seek some length (using options) on the additional retests of support. We may be running out of sellers in the coming weeks.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $2.92-$3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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No Technical Changes

Daily Continuous

Not much changed from yesterday’s comments.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Serious Support Test

Daily Continuation

The price decline continued and tested the intermediate term support levels. The declines found some bids but not sure how long it last. May be a good time to use options for some lower risk income.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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