Weekly / Longer Term Analysis

Spring Trade Action Similar to 2020 and Last Year

Weekly Continuous

Current patterns are showing some consistency to trade last year and back in 2020, as the market is stuck in a consolidating trading pattern (though at different price levels) during the late winter early spring time period. Prompt gas has a history of finding some support in the spring. From a Q1 low (which traded on 03/26), the ten years average rally is about 50%. Last year from a low traded on 03/29 at $1.944, the successive prompts rallied prices 46%, but it took until late June to achieve that increase. Most of last spring the gas market traded in fits and starts but did trade higher monthly lows in April, in May and in June. Prompt gas rarely trades a lower low during calendar April than it did in calendar March (once since 2016).

Some of the technical indicators have marginally improved in both of the last two weeks but remain negative. Mathematically based momentum indicators (none of which confirmed the April expiration lower low) continue to suggest bullish momentum divergences. Divergences are not critical to a major shift in bias, but ignoring them leaves you at peril.

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