Bumping Upon a Ceiling

Daily Continuous

Still looking at the recent range trade, but I am noticing a trading behavior that seems to want to build on gains and test the “ceiling” of the recent range. This is the behavior of a market seeking to a price to force some short covering. Not saying that it is today with the storage report, but a behavior that should be respected.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Spring Trade Action Similar to 2020 and Last Year

Weekly Continuous

Current patterns are showing some consistency to trade last year and back in 2020, as the market is stuck in a consolidating trading pattern (though at different price levels) during the late winter early spring time period. Prompt gas has a history of finding some support in the spring. From a Q1 low (which traded on 03/26), the ten years average rally is about 50%. Last year from a low traded on 03/29 at $1.944, the successive prompts rallied prices 46%, but it took until late June to achieve that increase. Most of last spring the gas market traded in fits and starts but did trade higher monthly lows in April, in May and in June. Prompt gas rarely trades a lower low during calendar April than it did in calendar March (once since 2016).

Some of the technical indicators have marginally improved in both of the last two weeks but remain negative. Mathematically based momentum indicators (none of which confirmed the April expiration lower low) continue to suggest bullish momentum divergences. Divergences are not critical to a major shift in bias, but ignoring them leaves you at peril.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Tired of Reading About Range Trade?

Daily Continuation

Seems like the market likes to go into a spring period of boredom as I discussed in the Weekly Section. Similarities abound and if you need further evidence bring up a month chart of continuation prices. not much more to add than what was discussed in the Longer term area so not going to waste more of my time. I gather you folks understand my not writing the same stuff day after day is not laziness but there is no way to put lipstick on this pig. — Plod along sell, premium count cash.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.48, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.87, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Resistance is “Resistance”

Daily Continuous

That is why they call it resistance as prices trade between the 50 Day SMA and the 10 Week SMA but does not close above them both on a daily basis. The trader has to believe resistance breaks or holds — your guess is as good as mine.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.87, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
,

Rerun Continues

Daily Continuous

As discussed in yesterday’s Daily– the trade seems to be following a path similar to last month in early March as weather brought some short term support to prices. The same seems to be occurring this month. Wait for for prices to definitively break above resistance– by closing above the near term resistance between $1.85-$1.96 on a daily basis– before entering any serious length. In the meantime, I found the early March rally a good opportunity to sell some premium in the options market.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.872, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Similar to Last Month – Firm to Start

Daily Continuous

Seen this movie before — lets see if the plot thickens on this month as prices start the month off with strength only to fall back after the first week.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59
,