Author: Willis Bennett

Storage Release Tests Support Levels from Last Week

Daily Continuous

The bearish release provided some downward momentum (like last week) only to find buyers similar to last week. Perhaps the market is struggling to send prices down to major support– I will be interest to see if any divergences have developed after the weekly action.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Mini-Range Developing?

Daily Continuous

Looks like the sellers ran out of momentum (perhaps waiting for the next storage report) and now has developed a new small range for trade. Would not be an aggressive seller at these levels as major support just lower is relevant and stopped the declines last week.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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How Far Does Decline Go

Daily Continuous

After breaking down below support levels, prices did not set a lower low on Friday — perhaps alerting traders that the selling enthusiasm may have curbed. Will likely find out this week and be cautious.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Storage Release Breaks Old Support

Weekly Continuous

While the support zone between $3.00 and $3.05 had held the market for the previous couple of months, it was no match for the selling that came in after the storage release. Rather than hold that support…and bounce as expected, prompt gas fell to test the continuation post Memorial Day lows ($2.857 – $2.859, 05/26 & 05/27. This year the pre Independence Day high traded on 06/26 at $3.441. The to date post – holiday low is $2.874…a decline of .567 or 16.5%. The five and ten years average of the seasonal declines are 18.9 % and 15.26% so this years market is close to a historical tendency.

While there have been years that prompt August traded steadily lower for all, or almost all, of its tenure as prompt…’24 is the most recent example (and the only example of the last ten years). Far more often August trades a post – holiday low between the 10th and 20th…even in ’24 the low before the three day bounce, before closing the month lower.

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What More Can Be Said

Daily Continuous

Boring range trade world– due to this range trade and amount — when this market decides to break out or down it will with a vengeance.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Range Trade Supports a Break Eventually

Weekly Continuous

Prompt gas and the August contract remain confined in an increasingly well – defined trading range between $3.000 – $3.050 and $3.375 – $3.440. Friday’s last trade, $3.245 was just about exactly in the middle of that range, Thursday’s close, $3.196 just south of the middle. Recently discuss the seasonal tendency bracketing Independence Day . Currently, prompt gas has declined .290 from the 06/26 pre -holiday high ($3.441 – $3.151) or about 8.5%. While that percentage decline is greater than the declines in ’19 or ’21 it is well short of the three, five and ten years averages (15.3%, 18.9% and 21.6%, respectively). Typically, August gas continues to feel the seasonal pressure when trading resumes before a post – holiday low most often traded between the 10th and the 20th.

The consensus of technical indicators remains neutral, as it did for the entire second calendar quarter. A close above the 40 – weeks SMA and the March/June highs with supporting volume would trigger positive agreement of the indicators. A close below well – defined support between +/- $3.00 and $3.05 would, at a minimum, introduce a strong price negative bias. The weekly MACD, my primary “lagging” indicator, remained positive. The daily MACD, the weekly and daily RSI are all neutral. Given that since May 28th prompt gas has been confined in daily closing range between $3.087 and $3.343, the neutral configuration of sensitive mathematical indicators makes sense. Market internals are also neutral with the suggestion of a price negative bias. Average daily volume fell by more than 20,000 contracts as prompt August traded in narrow range. Open interest increased 43,000+ contracts…which suggests that commercial hedging may be coming in at a lower price level. The total range traded this week was .177, leaving the weekly ATR at .260…that is more than a nickel lower than the August ’25 low…getting closer to a red flag zone. The daily ATR fell to .135. The violated trend line from the ’24 – ’25 lows should be expected to present resistance…as it has for the last couple of months. The value of the trend line for calendar July is $3.360.

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Eventually This Market Will Break

Daily Continuous

The market remained in the recent range and shows little implications of breaking (technically) show what the market speaks — I will listen. Stick with the range for trades.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Was Looking For History

Daily Continuous

Was expecting a little harder push up before the holiday due to historical tendencies. Perhaps it occurs today or before the holiday after the storage report. The Daily will not be published on Thursday but will be back on Monday.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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New Prompt — Same Range — So Far

Weekly Continuation

July has traded the high of its tenure three times in the last ten years just before going to settlement, ’16, ’21 and ’23. Of those three ’23 is most similar to current conditions, but in all three…even in ’21 with prompt gas in a defined uptrend, settlement on the last day of June was $3.373, the calendar August low $3.734. Notwithstanding its well – defined uptrend, the gas market spent most of the summer consolidating before extending a rally into Q4 (in ’23 that high traded during October). July ’26 settled $.191 higher than June ($3.231, the highest settlement since February v $3.040) as expected.

August gas has been range-bound since the last trading day of March…between +/- $3.000 and $3.410 – $3.430. The April and May lows of August gas, $2.974 and $3.001, together with the June low, $3.059 should provide substantial support. Higher monthly lows are technically constructive but expect August to remain confined (with slight expansions due to potential weather implications) in a range similar to July.

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Holiday Has History

Daily Continuous

Prices are going to be running into a historically bullish (limited) period going into or out of the 4th of July holiday. Would still look for the range that has been intact for the recent few weeks to hold but be aware that there may be an extension to the range. I would expect that extension to be to the upside.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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