Author: Willis Bennett

Break Out Confirmed?

Daily Continuous

Will be cautions in hitting the buy button today– While the breakout is solid will be giving it a pause for the end of the week. Four consecutive up days in this market gives me pause for evaluation.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Possible Break Out Extends

Daily Continuous

Coming up on a storage report that may or may not confirm the break out above the resistance levels. Time and trade today will confirm. Keep in mind the idea of selling premium should the rally continue. Not sure what is driving the run beyond the annual trend of price strength in Q2 (concerns about storage into the fall season). Today will bring some clarity of the reasons.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Is This a Breakout

Daily Continuous

Impressive rally took prices to and above the May highs which could be considered a “breakout” from the recent range boredom. Be careful here as that is just step one to conclude whether it is a break out or just a head fake. Volume was up on Monday — open interest — flat. Be patient at these times.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Boring

Daily Continuous

The market provided me a wonderful Father’s Day gift by doing nothing in terms of bias and or price movement. Even the Weekly section is weak on content — play the ranges the market continues to provide by selling premium.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Stalled

Weekly Continuous

What can you say after another week with little or no movement beyond the ranges established. Will note that a higher high than the previous week is a bullish signal but the failure afterward was mitigating. From a technical stand point — nothing to really add or try to embellish from my recent comments. Sell the premium until the market decides on a bias.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Bearish Storage–Prices Decline–Momentarily

Daily Continuous

Price action confirmed the bearish storage report for a short period of time only to spend the rest of the trade day recovering the declines. Time only profits the option trades as price action plays the range.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Nothing To Add

Daily Continuous

Can not add to the previous three Daily’s nor the Weekly on Monday.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

As Expected

Daily Continuous

Not much to add from the last few week as the market seems to be comfortable with the range that the trade has developed. Prices going nowhere slowly– this market needs a fundamental jolt — either way.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

Rambling Through the Range

Weekly Continuous

The new prompt opened higher and immediately rallied to test resistance which was contrary to my expectations coming into the week. From the post – Memorial Day low at $3.098 prompt gas has traded 23.2% higher…exceeding the five, ten and twenty years averages for early June rallies by a couple of percentage points. The anniversary of last year’s June high is on the 11th. It would not be surprising if July stretches the rally a bit during the coming week but as detailed when then prompt June was testing the same zone last month, resistance to a significant extension of the rally is strong. The calendar May high was $3.840. In six of the last ten years (a mixed bag) prompt July has traded through the May high but has done so in each of the last four years. In two of those four July’s it traded the June high of the 8th and on the 11th (’22 & ’24). In the other two the prompt corrected from highs on the 15th and 20th before rallying into expiration. July has not traded through the May high, yet, but if it does and closes there, and above of its 50 – day SMA expect a test of resistance between $4.075 and $4.120.

On a continuation basis, since the high volume daily reversal on 04/09, prompt gas has constructed a trading range just about one dollar wide (between $2.86 – $2.87 (the low daily close has been $2.930) and $3.83 – $3.840 (the high daily close was $3.816 on that 04/09 reversal day). The upper boundary of that range roughly corresponds with the lower boundary of a range constructed between mid – February and early April. The low daily close during that period was $3.834. In the event of a “breakout” by prompt July through the resistance described earlier, the lower boundary of the previous more elevated range will provide substantial resistance. Because of the historical consistency of a mid – June high there is no suggestion for chasing a potential breakout higher.

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Ranging Along — Now Near Resistance

Daily Continuous

Prices started Sunday night a little weaker bu still with in the recent range. The market will need to confirm the recent bullish bias (slightly) this week and would wait to look at buying the bias until confirmed (see Weekly section).

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.46, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

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