Author: Willis Bennett

Expectations Met

Weekly Continuous

I wrote last week —The expectation was the decline to occur on either 07/07 or 08. Instead, August fell $.458 (12.2%) on 06/30 and 07/01…closing the gap and trading just through the low of the first targeted support band ($3.300 – $3.350). Well the declines continued to July 9th and promptly met the expectations for the size of the declines (in fact exceeded them). Once the low was set, prices bounced and returned to with in the range for the July contract and now seemingly the August contract. Folks, this market seems to being going nowhere and at a slow pace.

Understanding the frustration of many of you (for volatility– myself included) but my ideas are to highlight what I see the market is trying to accomplish and clue you in advance of the movement– unfortunately this market is showing no movement beyond the range each successive contract trades within. There may be an occasional lapse in Daily diatribes during these periods.

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Going Where?

Daily Continuous

Didn’t post last Friday as the market is just continuing the range aspect of trade (please see the Weekly section for more information). My comments may have additional breaks in publishing if the prices remain within the tight ranges.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Testing Continues

Daily Continuous

Prices continue to seek the low side of the range with the August contract as prompt. Nothing to mention technically except a failure at a lower low while challenging the May lows with the June contract.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Still Searching

Daily Continuous

As mentioned yesterday — prices are seeking to define the low end of the range which may hold the August contract as prompt. Be patient during this lull in trading.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Defining Low End of August Range

Daily Continuation

Declines tested support before finding a bid. These range tests may continue this week and from a technical standpoint, it will be interesting to see how far they go.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Seasonal Declines Per History

Weekly Continuous

Price action conformed to the historical norms (for the most part) though, last week, I Thought that a 14% decline would more than close the 06/27 gap and test well defined conventional support. The expectation was the decline to occur on either 07/07 or 08. Instead, August fell $.458 (12.2%) on 06/30 and 07/01…closing the gap and trading just through the low of the first targeted support band ($3.300 – $3.350).

It is not unprecedented for a low to trade before the holiday trading break. In ’19 a low was traded on 07/01 before a rally to a mid – July high. In ’13 before a similar rally but there was a minor decline from an 07/03 high to a 07/05 low ($3.700 to $3.577). Both of those pre – holiday lows were later substantially violated during the initial days of the tenure of prompt September.

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Everything on Historical Plan

Daily Continuous

Assuming that the trend from Sunday will continue through the open– expect additional weakness during the week as the Holiday pattern is likely to continue. May be a selling opportunity– but would not hold short positions for very long (or sell premium below). Buyers should be patient currently and let the flow develop.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Declines Challenge Initial Support

Daily Continuous

Declines took price to the high side of the support range ($3.25 topside), failed and then rallied slightly. Trade seems light going into the Holiday so look for anomalies that the thin trade may provide. Doubt the trade will provide any kind of major move but the slow declines may provide opportunities for selling some premium.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Strong Close May Suggest Early Strength

Daily Continuous

The strong close to last week may be suggesting early strength today but the Sunday night market is showing weakness. Discuss the seasonal patterns and historical averages (declines) around the Independence Day in the Weekly section — give it a read. Will be in and out of access this holiday week– but I should be scheduling the Daily tomorrow and Wednesday. Should the declines initiated on Sunday hold — the market will likely be establishing the initial low end of the range for August contract.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Expiration Very Soft

Daily Continuation

Weakness continued as those who had not covered were forced especially after the storage release. The prediction in the Weekly section this week was spot on regarding weak prices around the 4th of July holiday– the question now, which will keep me on the sidelines until next week, do the declines cease or extend.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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