Category: Daily Call

The Holiday weakness declines expanded the 5+% decline, taking prices down, getting near the trend line support (March and April lows in the chart above) that has been mentioned here for a while. The key is a break below that holds on a daily closing basis. A test and rally from will provide additional gains but a break down on a closing basis will likely create a test of the $8.00 area and just below.

Major Support:$8.283-$8.24, $8.12
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance:$8.916, $8.996, $9.60

Friday’s trade provided a little weakness and was extended in the light Holiday trade on Monday. Go into expectations and the upcoming trend that may continue and “rhyme” with the happenings in 2008 as well as other potential outcomes — but this week and next are going to provide some valuable insight as the the early summer action. The declines from the high’s last week ($9.40) down to the low on Friday ($8.285) have already met the average spread surround the Holiday period and with the market opening lower late Monday night– perhaps the Holiday related low has not yet been achieved. Continue to expect market volatility in the upcoming week and would be keeping trade horizons short as recommended for nearly a month.

Major Support:$8.548, $8.32, $8.283-$8.24
Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36,
Major Resistance:$8.916, $8.996, $9.60

Though collapsing at the end of trade– the expiration was well bid as prices were $1.00 higher than last Friday following three up days and only one declining day (expiration day). July takes over as prompt and history leads to the expiration of some sort or retracement before or just after the Holiday. Some how — I don’t see traders selling into the Holiday weekend, but trade is likely to be light regardless.

Major Support:$7.663, $7.50., $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $7.722- $7.69, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.996, $9.60

The trade got they were seeking as prices jumped over $9.00 and got the short covering in the option expiration market. The market could not hold all of those gains during the trade as once the shorts were out — not a lot of buyers remained. Expiration is upon us and who has a clue as to what will happen as fundamentals haven’t changed in 3 weeks and the technical targets just seem to get run over.

Major Support:$7.663, $7.50., $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $7.722- $7.69, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.996, $9.60

Per the commentary yesterday — traders tried hard with the classic (now days) early morning rally up to $8.93 only to retrace when the rest of the trade got into the office. Not giving up on the concept that the trade is going to utilize the history of expiration’s to break above the resistance levels just below $9.00.

Major Support:$7.663, $7.50., $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $7.722- $7.69, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.996, $9.60

Spoke about the trends in the expiration process in both the Daily and Weekly sections– had no clue that the market would further the trend another month (in the first day)– but it seems like that is the idea. Cannot jump on the July or August contract at these levels currently, though. Not enough volume, the ATR (discussed in the Weekly) is in an historical danger area, and the trade around Memorial Day Holiday, has shown weakness either side of the Holiday, historically. That does not prevent aggressive folk from taking a position during the day only to leave at resistance. That said, the move yesterday does provide the question of whether the trade is setting itself up for a break out above the calendar May high, either during expiration or just after as the July contract is trading at an $.08 premium to June. Should a break above occur– let the short covering occur — don’t chase– wait for the Holiday weakness to provide better opportunities (if it does). If it breaks down chose the level you are comfortable with to initiate length.

Major Support:$7.663, $7.50., $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $7.722- $7.69, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.996, $9.60

Was resting during most of the trade day so consider my astonishment when I looked at the screen in the evening when prices are down $.20. Not sure what has changed in the trader’s eyes, but the movements look like they want to test some of the support zones from $7.90-$7.51.

Major Support:$7.50., $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.47-$9.60

Under the weather tonight– can’t even stay awake to watch hockey. Nothing to add no real solid support zones until prices decline into the low $7.00’s.

Major Support:, $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.47-$9.60

Regardless of lack of interest (volume) prices just grind higher. As mentioned yesterday, the movements are not a general consensus of rising expectations prices this summer, but seem to be rather oriented towards a bias from trading funds seeking an outcome. The suggestion remains keep trades on a daily time frame- not leaving position on over the night.

Major Support:, $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.47-$9.60