Category: Daily Call

Discussed the support zones and importance in the Weekly section– need less to say the late Friday afternoon and early Sunday trade point to another test of support early this week. As discussed previously, the market needs to confirm its directional bias and the lack of open interest is not helping the confirmation. The only entities shorting the market are the speculative crowd and they will look to each other to take the lead (yea — ok) as, they increased their positions but fell as the percentage of total open interest, all as prices rallied above $7.00. Stick to the range.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

A little confused tonight as the storage report came in bearish to expectations and is likely the first of a few bearish reports but prices started with strength and held on to a chunk of it throughout the day. The bearish traders should be scratching their heads as that was a a set up made for a retest of support. Perhaps we will get it today or early next week. If you are a bear — then this zone $7.00 – $7.10 looks good for positions. If you are a bull wait for a confirming break out above $7.10.. If you are like me (uncommitted), wait for the break out or break down to re-institute positions.

Nice rally continues after testing the major support. It is still a bearish trade (when prices broke below $7.40) in a long term bullish trend. That correlates to paring positions on the rallies if you are long the rally or adding to short positions on rallies play the game with the expectations of the ranges being tested.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

As discussed yesterday– when prices closed below the 200 day SMA and the 40 Week SMA for two days, prices immediately repudiated with in a day. Yesterday may be a similar response but the market will need to confirm the rebound over the next few days. Until confirmation of the rebound, would be hesitant to add dramatically to length.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

The editor is not allowing me up-load the Daily image for your review — but let me explain that prices closed the day below the key 200 day SMA for the first time since last July. Last July the market rallied off of that test — not sure what happen this time, in July it was repudiated in three days.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Prices settled down last week with lowest Average True Range since earlier in the summer. A bearish storage release didn’t bring the bears out and demand destruction from Ian didn’t extend the losses– not being a fundamental based trader– I have not way to explain. Technical data points look to the market testing support on the expiration of Oct below $6.50 only to see prices rebound– that spells a test of support and support held. Are prices destined to test resistance now? There may yet be another test of support with Nov as prompt — have to wait and see.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Going into its prompt role- Nov had very early (overnight) strength only to loose it all and then some after the rest of the trade folks came in. Was a little startled the the fundamental folks were expecting a big injection (likely why the market was weak going into the release) they got what they were looking for – but could not extend the declines after the release. What is that all about– market running out of sellers??? Full disclosure, the declines were starting to challenge the 200 day SMA and the 40 week SMA at the lows — so perhaps prudence took over.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

That was interesting — prices showed strength on Monday going into the expiration — only to give it up on Tuesday and showed slight strength yesterday. Can’t call it a well-bid expiration, as prices closed last Friday at $6.828 and expired at $6.868. That is all irrelevant now as Nov takes over as prompt and is facing a large speculative short position, demand destruction from Ian, and potential sabotage on the pipelines from Russia to Germany. Be interesting to watch how this all works out. Forgot to mention another storage report which is going to be bearish (according to my fundamental clients).

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

This could b a unique expiration as compared to the last twenty+ monthly expiration. So far the current price is just about where it was when price started the week.– What no rally– not sure yet but a great trade position month after month may be coming to break. Does not mean that the trade behavior is not going to happen next month — just means that it may be subtle this month. We will see.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Prices extended lower yesterday only to find support and rally back slightly, closing the day near the highs of the day. This may be the beginning of the recent trend of expiration’s being well bid. Key for today is the options expiration so expect excitement at $7.00 and $6.75. Directional focus will be shown in the Dec, Jan, and Feb contracts as the market defines its upcoming directional bias.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9