Category: Daily Call

Flipped the price chart over to the Oct contract for the continuous chart. The declines that were expected are occurring but would expect more to close the premium between the Oct and Sept contracts. Prices will all depend on the situation / positions during the expiration process. The fundamental trade will continue to struggle between the ending inventory levels and the current storage levels (projected forward) that is why I will let the fundamental folks define the technical behavior.

Major Support: $2.162, $2.089-$2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527,
Minor Support: $$2.499-$2.43, 2.377, $2.255, $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance:$2.51-$2.54, $2.588, $2.709

Would not expect the quiet day trade of yesterday to continue through expiration. We have options expiration today and then the contract (storage) on Thursday — love it when that happens. Would expect $2.50-$2.60 in play for expiring calls — the put contracts may not get exciting until $2.25. Go back to what I mentioned in the Weekly that the seasonal weakness (week either side of Labor Day) is one of the weakest of the year and if prices don’t go down during this period they are going up.

Major Support: $2.162, $2.089-$2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527,
Minor Support: $$2.499-$2.43, 2.377, $2.255, $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance:$2.51-$2.54, $2.588, $2.709

That is why I maintain hedges as prices ignored what the technical data suggested and went opposite, reversing off of early declines to finish higher. Now we are looking at a key struggle, as the market has a influence of The expectation is that prices should weaken this week — but if they don’t I think the weekly section sums it up well.

Major Support: $2.162, $2.089-$2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527,
Minor Support: $2.377, $2.255, $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance:$2.43-$2.499

So we discussed yesterday that it looked like the market need to take a breath– hey it did. Last week, at this time, the suggestion was made that perhaps more consolidation should occur– what happen– the market trashed my thoughts with a big move higher. I will submit the same analysis as last Friday, that the move in gas need to continue to test support zones from which to build a base to send prices higher. However, this week there was a slight hedge with some calls– just in case kids want to play.

Major Support: $2.162, $2.089-$2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527,
Minor Support: $2.377, $2.255, $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance:$2.43-$2.499

So now what — market is a little over extended but could continue higher, looks like it needs a brief rest back to the low $2.30’s or just below. Perhaps it rallies off the number to the major resistance. The market bias has change over the last 3 weeks and buying the dips has become a challenge in itself, as prices have not conformed to technical support zones.

Major Support: $2.162, $2.089-$2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527,
Minor Support: $2.397-$2.377, $2.255, $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance:$2.43-$2.499
Minor Resistance:

Not sure what information is continuing to feed this bull, but it has to be respected for now. Yes, the technical side is approaching over bought status, but in these situations usually run on there own and technical indicators be damned.. Have talked about support areas over the last couple of days- so will not repeat (just in case the market wants to retreat).

Major Support: $2.162, $2.089-$2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527,
Minor Support: $2.397-$2.377, $2.255, $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance:$2.43-$2.499
Minor Resistance:

After the small explosion in prices last Friday, it was not surprising to watch consolidation yesterday. Starting to hear questions about this rally in the face of the storage surplus which may be an indication of the struggle yet to come as we head into the late Q3. In the mean time, play the mini-ranges that are developing, now in the $2.30’s, and likely to head into the high teens during the seasonal weakness.

Major Support: $2.162, $2.089-$2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527,
Minor Support: $2.255, $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance:$2.377-$2.397,$2.43-$2.499
Minor Resistance:

Was not expecting a break out upward on a Friday– but when prices bounced off the 40 week SMA in the Sept contract the party started. It should be expected that with the reduction of short positions and the hurt feeling associated with the rally event — dips will be bought. Key areas for the dips are $2.28, $2.16 and if it gets back there, $2.055.

Major Support: $2.162, $2.089-$2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527,
Minor Support: $2.255, $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance:$2.377-$2.397,$2.43-$2.499
Minor Resistance:

Was expecting more of a test of support with a slightly bearish report. Instead, prices rallied at the end of the day. Perhaps this is the new range $2.08-$2.28 but I believe that there will be another test of support before the expiration, but this expectation is solely based upon the historical trend of prices during this time of year. Am not suggesting that the $2.05 level will break down, rather that the highs for the September contract are likely established and the lows between $2.02-$2.055 will hold going into expiration.

Major Support: $2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527, $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance: $2.255-$2.284, $2.377-$2.397,$2.43
Minor Resistance:

Declining below minor support, the declines fell short of first initial major support at $2.055 (50% retracement of last week’ gains) and found buyers at $2.085. That is a good start, not convinced that the declines will stop there forming the lower end of the new range. The only reason for suggesting that potential is the seasonal weakness normally associated with the upcoming Labor Day holiday. This period, historically, is one of the weakest periods of the year for natural gas. This trade year though has not followed historical norms with the q2 high in early May and the Q3 low in late June (not even in the q3) so I may have to discount the impact of the seasons. Storage report today which should give us further indications of bias for the week.

Major Support: $2.055, $2.029-$1.937, $1.86, $1.527, $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $2.102, $1.975, $1.719
Major Resistance: $2.255-$2.284, $2.377-$2.397,$2.43
Minor Resistance: