Category: Daily Call

After a ten percent decline what did you expect?— I get a kick out of traders, with the bears astonished that prices did not collapse another ten yesterday. Sorry, declines like that need a time to confirm (or consolidate) and yesterday represented the market taking a moment to breath and figure out the next move. Catalysts that send a commodity market down 10% in a day are not usually followed by the event causing another 10% decline– normally the market needs to digest the first event.

The action has provided a near term support zone (yesterday lows) and a short term resistance area (gap from Monday)– would play that range until we find out if there is another catalyst to be defined.

Was expecting a test of support, but a trap door opened and prices rapidly accelerated downward, declining to the 50 day SMA of continuous prices. This action has now created a gap above, clearly defining resistance, and the old gap below from the Nov contract (taking over as prompt) last October. Entering new positions at this point will provide significant risk as stop levels are extended. Perhaps, a daily position on day trend is warranted for the next day or two.

Major Support: $2.663, $2.657-$$2.637,$2.621
Minor Support:
Major Resistance:$2.82-$2.853, $2.887, $2.98-$3.05, $3.091, $3.151, $3.24,
Minor Resistance:

Prices rallied during last week challenging the trend line of resistance off of the early Oct low. Challenging this trend line four of the five trading days and leaving the market looking for the next catalyst to move it in either direction. Prices opened Sunday night, down $.13 and challenging the Dec 200 day SMA. Will be interesting to see if there is an extension below last week’s low (see Weekly section).

Major Support: $2.882, $2.853-$2.82, $2.789, $2.657-$$2.637
Minor Support:$2.743
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.091, $3.151, $3.24, $3.361-$3.370,
Minor Resistance:

What was gained the day before was eliminated yesterday as prices seem to want to doubt whether they should be above $3.00. Such is life in a consolidation phase or pattern. Mentioned the range we are working within yesterday, depending on the data release today, either end of the range could be challenged.

Major Support: $2.882, $2.853-$2.82, $2.789, $2.657-$$2.637
Minor Support:$2.743
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.091, $3.151, $3.24, $3.361-$3.370,
Minor Resistance:

Interesting day of trading as prices started strong , weakened, then got a solid bid towards the end of the trading day. Not sure what all of the volatility was about — but to the technician this represents the development of a solid base for Dec support between $2.85-$2.82 and now the action should try to define the high end of the range. It may or may not retrace all of the premium afforded to Dec but it is likely to regain some of declines from last week.

Major Support: $2.882, $2.853-$2.82, $2.789, $2.657-$$2.637
Minor Support:$2.743
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.091, $3.151, $3.24, $3.361-$3.370,
Minor Resistance:

Prices got a solid bounce on some sort of news (fundamental data points very similar — so I hear) and ran up into the resistance (previous support now is resistance) zone between $2.98-$3.05. From there, prices declined and settled in the middle of the days range. This type of trade should be expected going into the storage data point on Thursday. I am starting to get a weird feeling about this market as everyone is aware of above normal temps for the next two weeks — but prices run up $.16 ?? whats that all about. Guess we will learn in the coming days.

Major Support: $2.882, $2.853, $2.789, $2.657-$$2.637
Minor Support:$2.743
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.091, $3.151, $3.24, $3.361-$3.370,
Minor Resistance:

Subdued, but effective, were the slight declines in yesterday’s action. This behavior may continue as the Nat Gas European based platforms declined as well. Why do I bring these platforms into the conversation– was looking at some charts and found some similarities to the British and Dutch products and the U S gas contract. There may be more influence from offshore contracts than historically thought.

Major Support: $2.882, $2.853, $2.789, $2.657-$$2.637
Minor Support:$2.743
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.091, $3.151, $3.24, $3.361-$3.370,
Minor Resistance: $2.905, $2.922

What can you say– that was a weekly bearish reversal and all the charts do not look favorable for the bulls. I remember having similar thoughts two weeks ago after the bullish close and the rally off of the large gap from expiration, only to watch the market try to rally — fail– and push significantly lower. Now the same could be said about the market from a negative perspective– it has to expand prices lower– right. While I do not expect prices to drop another $.40 this week– there may be some extensions lower per my conversation in the Weekly section.

Major Support: $2.882, $2.853, $2.789, $2.657-$$2.637
Minor Support:$2.743
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.091, $3.151, $3.24, $3.361-$3.370,
Minor Resistance: $2.905, $2.922

After two days of declines, over $.35 in declines (10%), prices took a day of rest before the storage release. Needless to say, the over bought bias has been mitigated immensely and now it is up to see how the market interprets the first potential withdrawal of the season. Now you know I don’t track this type of information, rather I was told about the potential by a client. If it is a withdrawal — I would think that is a positive for the market — but then again what do I know. From a technical standpoint– the market is at a low risk area to enter length or shorts as the stop outs positions are under dime away – either long or short.

Major Support: $3.047-$2.98, $2.907, $2.882
Minor Support:$2.84
Major Resistance: $3.091, $3.151, $3.24, $3.361-$3.370, $3.423, $3.516