Author: Willis Bennett

Prices Continue to Advance

Daily Continuation

Nice gains off of the rebound — now the market needs to digest the battle between dry gas production vs demand and LNG– commonly referred to as the storage release. Technical data points continue to support the rally, but as the chart above shows the rallies have run into profit taking and a lack of commitment to higher prices.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Trend Line and Moving Averages Hold– this time

Daily Continuous

Discussed the support zones facing the market and on cue prices tested the levels. Still there just a little higher on the rebound — not sure the area will hold all week.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Prices Decline to Trend Line Support

Daily Continuous

Solid test of the support that has basically held the close for the last month (50 Day SMA)– and now we need to watch what price action occurs. A break below will bring addition covering of length, likely expanding the recent range down to $7.00 ish.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Consolidation — Not Out of the Possibilities

Daily Continuation

Prices performed a brief correction last week to rebound and towards the end of the trade week started to behave similar to a price consolidation pattern. We will see this week but the normal Sunday excitement was muted last night.

Major Support: $8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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There May Be a Range Developing

Weekly Continuation

Expiring August booked a gain during the final days of its tenure while last week’s continuation decline to a lower weekly close produced a technically negative weekly reversal bar but with lower weekly volume. The expectation of lower offers when trading resumed Monday was fulfilled by a gap lower being quickly filled, but the stage was set for lower trade and the market was compliant toward targeted support. On Wednesday, September traded to a low of $7.550 (just about matching a 50% retracement of the rally from the July low to the August options expiration day high was $7.53) and the 50 – day SMA of September gas at $7.5494. After a brief test of the mathematical and moving average support prompt gas rallied $.93 in one hour, before fading to close $.56/dt higher, basically offsetting the previous day’s $.577 decline. September lost another $.202 on Thursday and Friday, ending the week $.1650 below the close a week earlier. Do you start to develop a sense that this market in volatile state going nowhere slowly.

Open interest and volume were both marginally higher for the week which is a technical negative for prices in the upcoming week. The decline from the June high to the July low was an intermediate term downtrend within the long – term uptrend. That said, the late July trade to a higher high that intermediate term downtrend has morphed into an exceptionally wide trading range. Rarely if ever has substantial support and resistance been so well defined…or so far apart.

Major Support: $8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

Bearish Storage Number — Prices Hold Support

Daily Continuous

From what I was told by the fundamental folks — the data release was from the bearish perspective ( prices had declined into the release) but prices found support at $8.00. That action continued what I discussed earlier in the week regarding forming a range to trade. This would be a “manageable” range from a trading perspective rather than the wild volatility we have endured in the last month or so. Time will tell should the current behavior continue.

Major Support: $8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Test of Moving Average Holds — Prices Rebound

Daily Continuous

Very rarely do I utilize a moving average test as a serious test of support– but looking at the chart is very evident that buyers com in as prices test the 50 Day SMA since it broke out above last month. The range discussed now has to evaluate the high side as to where to profit, or hold for further gains.

Major Support:$8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

Wild Expiration Week With Potential Ramifications

Weekly Continuation

First off– let me apologize for not providing a Weekly yesterday and this on will be brief as I am still trying to overcome a digestive issue that attacked on Sunday.

Consistent with the strength into expiration of almost every month for the last year and a half, expectations were that expiring August would be well – bid before going off the board. Just no one sent my an email that the trade during the past week trade through the June high. Yikes reminds me of the Feb expiration. Needless to say that the activity (primarily an out side month) created some historical technical issues that I will en devour to update on the importance later this week and into the fall.

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Strong Test of Support

Daily Continuation

Mentioned and apologized in the Weekly section about my lack of data interpretation yesterday — rather just trying to keep my head above bored. Yesterday provided a strong test of support below $8.00 in the late Sunday trade only to find some strong footing during the morning. Trade developing a range environment even it is is nearly $.50 or more. Expect more of the same in the coming month to six weeks as prices develop a “base” for the yet to occur Q4 rally. Major Support:$8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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September Open Weak

Daily Continuous

Prices started with the September contract weak on the open as prompt. Sourcing the reason for the weakness leads to total confusion. Fact is, price seem to want to test support– whether that takes prices down to $7.75 or lower may be defined in the coming period.

Major Support:$8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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