Willis Bennett – Page 109

A Day Closer to Launch

April 19, 2022April 18, 2022

What else can be said after the update in Weekly and Daily yesterday and watch prices up another $.60 yesterday morning– extending the existing over bought conditions. So much fun — but the issues will be coming later when the floor falls out from underneath the buying. Continue to be very careful as the correction will be swift and likely violent. Look for previous Resistance to provide minimal support.

Major Support:$6.538, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.757, $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Blow Off Seems the Game

April 18, 2022April 17, 2022

Spoke last week that the rally looked to be more of a solid run not necessarily headed to a blow off topping formation. I will correct that assessment after last week’s Holiday shortened trade. Historically, dollar plus rallies (the current case 16.5% over four trading days), are characteristic of a speculative “blowoff” phase. Within that context, beyond the February expiration high there is little or no definable conventional resistance distinguishable on the continuation chart and there wasn’t the last week of January either.

An increase of 100,000 contracts during late March and early April brought total open interest back to approximately the same level that existed at or shortly following the rallies in Jan, Feb and Mar. Those rallies were all followed by corrections (Weekly Chart above) expect the same albeit from a dramatically higher price level.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Whoa — Be Careful

April 18, 2022April 17, 2022

The failure of May gas to correct before going off the board would be a departure from the pattern of each expiring contract for more than a year…as would a failure to rally into expiration. Expect both to happen over the next eight trading days. Given the strength into Thursday’s pre – holiday close further extension of the rally should not be a surprise, but traders should be alert for a reversal as discussed in the Weekly area. My guess is that a good chunk of last week’s gains will be shed.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Keeps On Rolling

April 14, 2022April 13, 2022

What can we say, the bullish move continues regardless of the over-bought conditions and now is challenging 3 standard deviations over the 20 week SMA. Notice on the chart below, that prices are approaching that extreme level. Can it get there — absolutely but also notice that it does not stay that exposed for very long.

**Weekly Continuation – Bollinger Bands 2 and 3 Standard Deviations** above 20 Wk SMA

A few of you contacted me in the last week regarding the run and how far it can go– I have tried to explain that it will go as far as the buyers continue to support it — but as I mentioned the last couple of Daily’s, the market will signal the conclusion. Some others have questioned is this the Q2 high– at this point I don’t see this as a culmination of the early summer run – but rather a rally within the med-term bias.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Yet A Higher High — But Failed to Hold Gains

April 13, 2022April 12, 2022

Can not claim that this leg of the run is completed — but yesterday gave a slight idea that the bulls may be running low on fuel. Off to a big gain in the morning, trying to test $7.00, only to spend the last 3 hours giving it all back and developed a bearish daily reversal off of a new high. Daily reversals are prevalent in gas so would not hang your hat on it but the volume on yesterday’s reversal was nearly 20% higher. As mentioned yesterday, the trade though the week’s end is key for the next couple of week’s price action.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.538, $6.757, $7.346

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

That Is What I am Looking For

April 12, 2022April 11, 2022

Big extension yesterday to set a new high, while volume was lighter than Friday (lightest of last week). This may be a market reaching a short term high (for whatever reason) but won’t know until the week is finished from a technical standpoint. There are also very few technical areas at resistance levels as the market blew through them in Feb expiration process.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Market Extends Gains — Momentum Indicators Entering Extreme Levels

April 11, 2022April 10, 2022

The week’s close at $6.278 was the highest since November ’08 . At that time prompt gas was declining from its July high of $13.694. Since 2008 May has settled higher than April in nine of fourteen years and three of the last four.

Volume and open interest increased along with price for the third straight week, during this period prompt gas has traded from $4.478 to $6.538. This week the average daily volume was an estimated 100,000 contracts higher than last week, which was 40,000 contracts higher than the week before. In the last three weeks, the total level of open interest increased more than 58,000 contracts. Volume and open interest moving in the same direction as price is a significant technical positive.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Rock On With Strong Prices — Careful

April 11, 2022April 10, 2022

Last week continued the strength but started to hit some selling. Go into near term expectations for price in the Weekly section, for today I would expect a slight retracement of the buying back up to Friday’s mid zone around $6.40’s. The market should struggle a little in this top area and correct for a more traditional bull rally. The market has not provided any evidence that there will be a “blow off” type of topping process so expect a more stair step run in the coming weeks.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

That Action is Not Consolidation

April 8, 2022April 7, 2022

Spoke of consolidation around the $6.00 area similar to last months behavior around the $5.00 area last month– Well I was wrong as prices exploded on the lightest volume day of the week. That being said, this week’s total volume looks to be the highest in the last month. Higher volume on flat or gaining open interest is supportive to the bullish case. However, this market is starting to reflect an over – cooked bull run in the secondary and primary technical indicators– be very cautious in adding to positions here as prices retreated from testing the early October high. Some folks might advise taking some profits at these highs.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.366, $6.466, $7.346

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

A Second Test

April 7, 2022April 6, 2022

My apologies for a lack of publications yesterday — brutal stomach ailment. Would of mentioned yesterday, and will again today, that the market is having a hard time with”key” levels ($6.00 this month $5.00 last month) and will correct back to the “key” levels. Last month price retreated 10% before rallying into the close. Does the market trade and close below the key level — no clue. Would expect another consolidation day or two around the $6.00 area as the market interprets the fundamental indicators going forward.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )