Spoke last week that the rally looked to be more of a solid run not necessarily headed to a blow off topping formation. I will correct that assessment after last week’s Holiday shortened trade. Historically, dollar plus rallies (the current case 16.5% over four trading days), are characteristic of a speculative “blowoff” phase. Within that context, beyond the February expiration high there is little or no definable conventional resistance distinguishable on the continuation chart and there wasn’t the last week of January either.
An increase of 100,000 contracts during late March and early April brought total open interest back to approximately the same level that existed at or shortly following the rallies in Jan, Feb and Mar. Those rallies were all followed by corrections (Weekly Chart above) expect the same albeit from a dramatically higher price level.
