Daily Call

Wow – Declines Explode and Create Gap

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Not much to say but that is why you use stop loss orders last week. We came in today and prices were below $6 and headed lower. Trading down into the lows from late October, the market will develop the low end of potential new range. We now know that the high end of any range is the huge gap from the weekend which will get challenged, though likely later in the winter or next year.

Major Support: $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.45-$6.48, $6.687, $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

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Bias Switch

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The break down of the trend line (mentioned on Friday) was a clear signal that prices were headed lower. That is why some of these technical levels are so important– they signal break down’s or break out’s. From there the question remained would the break out area around $6.45 hold which it did momentarily before capitulating, opening the door for prices to collapse another $.20. It is clear that the historical trend of weaker prices into early December remains well in place. The consensus of technical indicators had made steady, incremental progress since late October, gave up most of that improvement and retreated to neutral with a price negative bias.

Market internals were mixed during the past week but not nearly as weak as one might be expect given January’s reversal lower, average daily volume was much less than during Thanksgiving week by an estimated 90,000 contacts. Volume is supposed to expand if a substantial price move is sustainable.

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Don’t Look Now — But Back in the Old Range

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Prices have now returned within the range from last month, as prices broke below $6.45-$6.40 on Friday. This now places prices in the range that was discussed here last month which went down to $5.70 and slight extensions lower. Would patiently wait for the declines define the lower end of the range before starting the range trade strategy. The market now has redefined its bias to sell the rally after the melt down.

Major Support: $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.45-$6.48, $6.687, $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

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Declines Continue Below Trend Line

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Price action sent prices below the trend line but the market close above it at the end. That trend line may not hold the declines associated with annual post Thanksgiving weakness. It does not look like a major melt down with this move but with Natural Gas you never know. Would expect some support during the coming week, but keep the stops tight if you are adding length. Bears play your game– but suggest some profit taking.

Major Support: $6.716, $6.547-$6.50, $6.456, $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $7.19-$7.221, $7.498, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

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Solid Test of Support Trend Line

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Prices advanced the declines – testing the support trend line from the Dec lows and the July lows before finding a bid. Now the market needs to confirm the lows and the declines after the storage report that is released tomorrow. It may confirm the from selling rallies to buying the dips (this started with the breakout above $6.45). Keep stops tight if entering length or selling into the new range.

Major Support:$7.00- $6.93, $6.45, $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

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Historical Weakness in Early Dec Continues

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Discussed yesterday about the history of calendar Dec trade and opening with weakness. That history continued with yesterday’s action and now the market will need to define the low side of the Jan contract in the coming days. From a trade perspective, would cautiously enter length on key areas with tight stops in- case the market chooses to re-evaluate the bullish break above $6.45.

Major Support:$7.00- $6.93, $6.45, $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

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January Takes Over

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Prices opened weak for the expiring Dec contract and traded down to $6.50 before expiration at $6.712. The January followed the declines in the middle of the night trade falling below $7.00 to $6.968 before finding support as the majority of traders came to their desks. From those early lows of the day, prices found firm footing and traded at a $.45 premium to the weak December contract. The result of the expiration is a premium to Dec expiration but within the recent range from Dec. The market will need to digest the weather forecasts and confirm the recent range or expand it either up or down. Historically, the market shows weakness in the early trade of the Jan prompt.

Major Support:$7.00- $6.93, $6.45, $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

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Break Out Through Resistance

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As mentioned in the earlier Daily and Weekly writings, the area around $6.45 was key and the action last week confirmed as a rally broke above and sent the soon to expire over $7.00 quickly. Due to the light holiday related trade and the fact that the virus has returned to my chest — I will keep today’s Weekly Comments short. This last week’s exceptional counter seasonal price strength managed to pull the remainder of the winter strip back to and just above its still rising 40 – week SMA. Mentioned “counter” because there is historical evidence that the period around the Thanksgiving holiday is weaker (usually after trading to a pre-holiday high). Perhaps this year will resemble the historical norms with prices weaker during this week’s trade.

The technical indicators…which is heavily weighted to prompt gas, moderated last week and showed improvement this last week. The volume traded during three- and one-half trading days was nearly as high as five trading days last week…average daily volume increasing an estimated 95,000 contracts as prompt gas rallied to and through moving average, conventional and trend line resistance. Open interest declined modestly, suggesting that short covering played only a minor role in the rally—or that new buying was sufficient to offset what was likely a more significant amount of buying to cover contracts previously sold short.

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Expiration With Limited Comments

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December goes off the board today and The virus has returned to my chest — read the Weekly please. Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving.

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As Expected — Retrace to New Support

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Mentioned in the Daily yesterday — I wanted to see a test of the old resistance zone — prices to bounce and rebound. Just about what happened. Want to take this opportunity to wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving and please enjoy or family and friends. First storage with drawl of the winter season in the storage report so lets rock and roll.

Major Support:$6.45, $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

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