Daily Call

Late PM Catches Bid

Daily Continuous

Was listening to the news yesterday afternoon and nothing crossed my eyes that would catch the mark at the end for a $.15 rally. All I read was the the storage number was to be the first injection and a large one at that. Not exactly bullish news. Again, due to the war and impact on Crude (up slightly on the day but well off of its highs) technical and fundamental news can bias the market (volatility) in odd ways.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Been Here Before

Daily Continuous

We have been here before, trading lower testing support, the question this time is the same question remains. Does the market have enough sellers (in spite of the war) to break through to lower levels testing mid-range support.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Energy Complex Quiet

Daily Continuous

Crude and gas markets were quiet yesterday coming off the weekend. Until there is something dramatic in the the crude pit (one way or the other) I would look for gas to remain in the range discussed in the Weekly section.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Crude Leadership Slows?

Daily Continuous

While it is likely that NatGas will follow the rallies and support found in the Crude trade- it is becoming evident that the Crude trade may be “calming” which will limit any dramatic moves in gas. Trade seems to be quiet in the early Sunday night markets in both commodities. While traders looked to the weather report releases a month ago– now we have to watch the news channels. One solid element of trade, with the slowing of volatility — options can provide a lower cost avenue for directional bias.

Major Support: $3.051, $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Gas Continues Shadowing Crude

Weekly Continuous

April gas, likely still bid in sympathy with the rise in crude (which gap-ped higher on the way to the highest trade since 06/15/22 ($119.48), $28.58, 31.4% above last week’s close), went its own way after trading a lower high. Prompt gas finished the week $.055/dt lower, April crude, which goes to settlement on the 19th, closed at $98.71, $7.81 higher. After closing the remainder of a gap left on 02/09 ($3.316 – $3.387) April gas failed at its 40 – weeks SMA well short of the last lower high traded on 02/09 at $3.659.

There is a distinct similarity to the recovery rally following the high volume 02/02 decline and the absence of volume. Between 02/03 and 02/06 prompt March rallied from $3.155 to $3.659 with declining volume (discussed here). On 03/09 March gap-ped lower. Since trading to $2.961 on 03/10 April has rallied to $3.317 (similarly gaining with falling volume). If it is not the same, it rhymes. Unless April can hold a trend line rising from the lows of the last two weeks ($2.775 and $2.867, currently about $3.051 and the trend line from July low & March low) there is an increasing likelihood of a test of the zone between the January and February lows of April gas ($2.604 – $2.775).

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Storage Gives Neither Support or Selling

Daily Continuous

Storage report provided little directional bias and the market responded accordingly. I did find it interesting that the gas market remained flat while the crude market was up over $5.00 (nearly 6%). It seems like the two commodities are separating their relationship and or linking that occurred two weeks ago.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.26, $3.42, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

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Stool Found the Fourth Leg

Daily Continuous

Discussed yesterday that the market lost one of its legs with the declines in the crude market. That analysis was laid to rest yesterday with Gas coming back during a rather tepid run in Crude, It now rests at the initial near term resistance and I will be interested if it continues to run (not sure of the fundamental reason for a rally) or just gives up the gains and returns to test the support side of the range. Today is storage report and perhaps the market will find some bullish inference from the report .

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.26, $3.42, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

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It Was a Weak Stool

Daily Continuous

Suggested yesterday and in the Weekly that any rally associated with the rally in Crude it could on on thin ice should the Crude market correct. Such was the case yesterday and now the market has returned to the support zone that the market has been working for the month. Not convinced that a decline will have the power to break down and below as the market still has to respect the Mid East situation.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.26, $3.42, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

Market Rides Crude Tail

Weekly Continuous

Volume expanded as this week’s rally filled a gap on the April chart left on 02/09 leaving a tiny gap between $2.766 and $2.775 still open.

The absence of volume as the new prompt extended the decline a week ago strongly suggested that the gas market was running out of sellers below $2.900 – $3.000. This week’s rally with substantially greater volume without gas reaching an extremely oversold condition supports that theory. Despite the decisive violation of the trend line rising from the ’24 – ’25 lows on a weekly and monthly closing basis, technically the market remains in a long – term uptrend. Up-trends are defined by higher lows and higher highs in different time-frames and trend lines are a convenient way to monitor their progression. The last higher low on an intermediate – long term basis was the August low at $2.622. It is likely that there will be a lot of support between that low and the to date April low, but expect it will be tested, either during calendar April or August. On a weekly basis the last higher low after a higher high was $3.006 (the January low after the December high) which was decisively violated along with the long term trend line. Last week’s rally was an intermediate term counter trend rally…a “correction” after last week’s lower weekly low and will be followed by a lower high and a test of the previous low. 38.2% retracement of April’s decline from its January high is $3.275 this week’s high was $3.280. 50% is $3.430.

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Trying to Find Its Crude Way

Daily Continuous

Bouncing around the crude trade and Mid- East issues continues to affect Nat Gas. Discuss the Crude impact in the weekly section– but let me summarize here that Crude may have an impact on the rallies in Natural– but should crude fall down on its war rally gas will likely be limited to its its decline.– mid term support.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.26, $3.42, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496