Daily Call

Market Rides Crude Tail

Weekly Continuous

Volume expanded as this week’s rally filled a gap on the April chart left on 02/09 leaving a tiny gap between $2.766 and $2.775 still open.

The absence of volume as the new prompt extended the decline a week ago strongly suggested that the gas market was running out of sellers below $2.900 – $3.000. This week’s rally with substantially greater volume without gas reaching an extremely oversold condition supports that theory. Despite the decisive violation of the trend line rising from the ’24 – ’25 lows on a weekly and monthly closing basis, technically the market remains in a long – term uptrend. Up-trends are defined by higher lows and higher highs in different time-frames and trend lines are a convenient way to monitor their progression. The last higher low on an intermediate – long term basis was the August low at $2.622. It is likely that there will be a lot of support between that low and the to date April low, but expect it will be tested, either during calendar April or August. On a weekly basis the last higher low after a higher high was $3.006 (the January low after the December high) which was decisively violated along with the long term trend line. Last week’s rally was an intermediate term counter trend rally…a “correction” after last week’s lower weekly low and will be followed by a lower high and a test of the previous low. 38.2% retracement of April’s decline from its January high is $3.275 this week’s high was $3.280. 50% is $3.430.

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Trying to Find Its Crude Way

Daily Continuous

Bouncing around the crude trade and Mid- East issues continues to affect Nat Gas. Discuss the Crude impact in the weekly section– but let me summarize here that Crude may have an impact on the rallies in Natural– but should crude fall down on its war rally gas will likely be limited to its its decline.– mid term support.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.26, $3.42, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

Mideast Provides Limited Strength

Daily Continuous

Welcomed my second granddaughter yesterday and of course she is just beautiful and healthy. The market got the initial run in prices with the middle east in war and crude up over ten percent. Now the trade will have to evaluate the impact of the war on the LNG markets and carry forward to the US market and during the evaluation would keep the range from Feb active in your mind for buying and selling,

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136
Major Resistance: $3.02, $2.97-$2.93, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

Starting a New Prompt Same Range

Weekly Continuous

Prompt gas and the April contract traded an “outside” week reversal to the downside to end February below the historically important January low but did so with the lowest volume traded during any week in 2026. The low turnover…which was less than half of the total traded during week ending 01/23, does not nullify the trend line violation (which still needs confirmation) but does suggest that selling pressure necessary to drive April substantially lower is at least to date, absent. Lower price lows on lower volume is a form of divergence.

The technicals are still kind of a mess but are slowly adjusting. A week ago the consensus improved a little…to neutral, this week it forfeited that improvement and reclaimed its price negative bias.: Momentum indicators…both the weekly MACD and RSI are negative with confirmed price negative divergences. Maybe that is indicating another “leg” lower, but the circumstances of the divergences…Feb’s spike higher and March’s whopper of a discount, will likely result in that being a short “leg” and that prompt gas will begin to define the lower limits of an early spring trading range. Still, the inference is that rallies will fail.

Market internals were mixed. Volume fell along with price. As mentioned earlier, a lower price low on lower volume is a form of divergence, in this case a technical positive. Open interest increased indicating an ample supply of contracts offered at a lower price, a technical negative.

Have my second grandchild coming shortly so I will keep tonight short.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136
Major Resistance: $3.02, $2.97-$2.93, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

Interesting Start

Daily Continuous

My daughter is giving birth to my second grand child — short analysis today — work the rang.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136
Major Resistance: $3.02, $2.97-$2.93, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

April Is On the Clock

Daily Continuous

Prices are now off to the start of the April as prompt and starting from the low end of the range established in the last couple of week. No key technical elements to discuss except prices are at the low end of the range- therefore risk in buying prompt is minimal if you keep the stops tight at last months low.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136
Major Resistance: $3.02, $2.97-$2.93, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

Gap Downs — Now a Gap Higher

Daily Continuous

Been talking about gaps lower after the weekend for the last few weeks. This week it turns out to be a gap higher at the time of this writing (likely due to the storm on the East coast). Would not read a lot into this action going into the expiration process but the high side of trading has some well defined resistance from the remaining gaps. The downside has be defined in the last couple of weeks.

Major Support: $3.024, $2.97-$2.93
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

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Smaller Withdrawal Corrects to Low End of Range

Daily Continuous

Mentioned earlier in the week the market seemed to be looking for a fundamental justification for a bias break out of the range. I was wrong as yesterday’s bearish storage number could only take prices back to the low support range- but break down further. Want to analyze the week as a whole for any directional bias but I don’t think there will be any massive adjustment to my thinking as we are headed into expiration next week.

Major Support: $3.024, $2.97-$2.93
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496

Lows of Range Confirmed

Daily Continuous

The three day weekend low was confirmed yesterday but not broken as prices found support just above the Monday low. Seems like the range will continue to hold short of a fundamental issue (storage report) that could potentially adjust bias near term.

Major Support: $3.024, $2.97-$2.93
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086, $4.593, $5.333, $5.496