Daily Call

It Was A Lower High?

Daily Continuous

There was a lower high with yesterday’s trade, but I would of liked a test of $3.55-$3.60 as a solid lower high before the collapse of the gains sending price to a lower low. Guess the storage release has a bearish bias. Lower targets have not changed from the beginning of the week.

Major Support: $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.372, $3.467, $3.554, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

Perhaps Setting a Lower High

Daily Continuous

Suggested in the Weekly section last week that the declines could go straight down but I urged a more structured decline though the process of trading a lower low followed by brief rallies to set a lower high. Looks like this process may be taking establishing this approach.

Major Support: $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.372, $3.467, $3.554, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

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Bearish Bias Likely to Continue

Weekly Continuous

Prompt gas traded to a gap lower to begin the trading year on the second trading day of 2026. February managed to fill that gap after testing rising trend line support (from the August – September – October lows), but could not rally further than the violated continuation 40 – weeks SMA and last week’s close before reversing lower. February’s second test of rising trend line support was a resounding failure-the prompt plunged to the lowest price in eleven weeks, and did so with a substantial increase in average daily volume and open interest.

Looking to test the long – term defining uptrend line drawn from the ’24 – ’25 lows would occur coincident with maturity of the short – intermediate term cycle (and the anniversary of the March ’25 price spike) in mid – March. The current value of the slowly rising trend line is +/- $2.930. The current value of the March contract is currently $.535 discount to the prompt, and is well below that support zone. March is currently testing the continuation August low ($2.622 v $2.634, March’s 01/09 close).

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Bearish Bias Rocks On

Daily Continuous

Define the technical aspect of the price movements last week in the Weekly section. Let me summarize – Bearish Bias and likely to continue though declines may not be quick follow the concept of lower lows and lower highs.

Major Support: $3.16-$3.148, $3.136-$3.024, $2.93
Minor Support/Resistance :
Major Resistance: $3.372, $3.467, $3.554, $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

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Testing the Support Zone

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Weekly section that prices seemed to be destined to check the support zones in the near future. Welcome to the near future as prices melted down to set a lower low but had a brief rally by the end of the day. Market seems to looking at fundamental data coming out at the storage release to add to the bearish bias.

Major Support: $3.57-$3.546, $3.334,$3.16-$3.148
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.489,$3.467
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

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Negative Bias Returns to Gas

Daily Continuous

Go into the many aspects of why the market flipped to a negative bias in the Weekly section — but all you need to see is that prices are down $.15 and challenging support zones in the early Sunday trade. Not sure how this will track (1: an immediate decline during Jan or 2: or a series of lower highs and lower lows) but the market is clearly setting up for the Q1 lows to be established. My guess is the latter with the low occurring next month.

Major Support: $3.57-$3.546, $3.334,$3.16-$3.148
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.489,$3.467
Major Resistance: $3.787-$3.831, $4.063, $4.086

Two Weeks in One

Weekly Continuous

The analysis and comments on the market and its behavior will look at the entire two week period of time from my last Weekly published on Dec 22nd (before the Holidays).

January traded it’s pre – expiration low at$3.797 before nearly a dollar rally into expiration ($4.721) and going off the board at $4.687. Settlement was $.263 higher than December and the highest monthly contract settlement since January ’23 at $4.709. When January went to settlement February was offered at $3.986, creating a $.701 discount. February is typically offered at a discount to January, but $.701 is historically a little excessive. A year ago at January expiration Feb was $.234 discount to the expired prompt. Readers will likely recall that the new prompt gapped higher then retreated to close that gap before surging to a January high of $4.369. After volatile trade…that continued through the end of Q1, February ’25 went off the board at $3.535…a little more than a dime discount to January settlement.

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Wild Price Movements

Weekly Continuous

As expected the price action is hard to analyze from a technical perspective with the lighter trade (volume and open interest) during the Holiday period. One element that should be respected that even with the nearly $.40 discount of February to the January contract the prices have stayed with in the range established in Q4. Would continue to expect this trend to hold during the last day of the January as prompt.

Major Support: $3.82, $3.75 $3.654,
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.095, $4.16

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Not A Lot to Add

Daily Continuous

Discussed the action from last week in the Weekly Section.– Not a lot to add for the Daily

Major Support: $3.82, $3.75 $3.654,
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.095, $4.16

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Price Presses Downward

Weekly Continuous

For several weeks while the market rallied to higher and higher highs the consensus of technical indicators steadfastly refused to acknowledge the price ascent with positive agreement. The last two weeks the consensus is neutral but with a deteriorating price negative bias. Once thing that the decline accomplished was neutralizing the extreme condition of momentum indicators

Volume two weeks ago the high last (the fourth highest volume week of ’25, 3,674,237 contracts) increased significantly (3,972,672). That is nearly 300,000 contracts increase while prices fell indicates that cause is being built to go lower which was confirmed last week. Price may well fall further (especially around expiration). Fun info- volume during calendar November was less than in October while price was higher, which is a volume divergence. That anomaly indicates that the sponsorship for $5.50 – $6.00 gas did not exist yet.

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