Daily Call

Looks Like Some Calmness With Consolidation

Daily Continuous

Price action is holding firm with some tight daily ranges which signals a lack of commitment from the masses. Today may provide additional information on the the near term bias. While the break above $4.00 provided some income in the last week, the storage report will determine the future action in the next week.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $4.16, $4.08, $3.16
Major Resistance: $4.373, $4.461,

Prices Seem to Be Consolidating

Daily Continuous

After gaining in strength for a couple of days, the action started a “consolidation” process yesterday which could be a signal for additions to the gains later in the month. Can’t say the high end of the range for the Dec contract has been established — but would expect a brief retreat around the storage release and that may provide the indication of the high side of the new range.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $4.16, $4.08, $3.16
Major Resistance: $4.373, $4.461,

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Gains Hold and Extended

Daily Continuous

The bullish trend from last week’s storage release and weekly close continued on Monday which is good to see. I have read that much of the bullishness is due to forecasts for the winter which is normal for establishing the run that tops for the annual Q4 high. Before I go all in, I want to see a retracement that challenges some support zone and if it holds — then break out higher. The market will convince me that a strong Q4 run is in place.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $4.168, $4.461,

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Is It a Reversal

Weekly Continuous

Going to keep this abbreviated as I have other issues with higher priority. Clearly, looking at the chart above you expect commentary suggesting a reversal on the Weekly chart. Not so fast — nearly $.50 of that reversal was the premium afforded at expiration. It may prove out to be a reversal but need to witness after challenges to support. Continue to expect December to fail at resistance, specifically the trend line decline from its March and June highs and its 20 – weeks SMA, Expect December’s premium over expired November to diminish but also expect the new prompt to find substantial support between $3.60 and $3.75.

On more technical analysis expect that prompt gas has traded a higher continuation low…the September low higher than the August low, which is an essential characteristic of an emerging uptrend and the October low higher than the September low. Expect opportunities to buy support during calendar November but expect those opportunities to be fleeting.

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Market Has Some Issues to Digest

Daily Continuous

Kept the Weekly section tight and will expand the abbreviated response to last week’s action here.– would suggest you read the Weekly comments.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Nov Contract Ready to Retire

Daily Continuous

Am headed to visit my granddaughter tomorrow and that will prevent my from writing a Daily for Thursday — but no issues as most of you know my attitude about the market either side of expiration. I do not trade the market as it is suspect to trade variances and influence not helpful to technical analysis. What I will leave you with is watch the ranges — especially the soon to develop range in the Dec contract over the next two days.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Dec Premium Reduced

Daily Continuous

Discussed the premium being afforded in the Weekly and the market chose to narrow that yesterday as the prompt rallied and Dec basically went nowhere (down during the morning). For this reason my suggestion is to watch the Dec price action and should it establish a “flooring” behavior build some positions accordingly. If you are negative in bias then play the spread to Jan accordingly.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

Should Be Interesting Expiration

Daily Continuation

For many of the ideas highlighted and discussed in the Weekly section — This week should provide some valuable information on bias how November will trade with the Dec as prompt. Continue to look for the ranges that develop especially with the Dec contract.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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A Slight Bias Moderation

Weekly Continuation

Some reversal earlier in the calendar month (from $3.585 on 10/02 that was confirmed by another reversal from $3.550 on 10/08 for a third time this week’s high was $3.572 and that’s a classic test of and failure at well – defined resistance looks like.

Volume on those three tests of $3.550 – $3.590 has been remarkably similar: 672,699 – 643,006 – 639,225…higher than any other of the trading days during November’s tenure except 10/20 on the gap day. Notwithstanding that a chunk of the 797,173 contracts traded was the result of some folks buying back contracts they had sold short, the gap and the volume spike strongly suggest a high volume low. When November traded into the 10/20 range and tested the 20 – week SMA, (currently the value of that moving average is $3.198, Friday’s low $3.200) it reversed higher, ending the week on a strong note.

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Interesting Trade

Daily Continuous

The market rebounded momentarily and rallied only to collapse over the last few hours– looks like the market stays in the range where it seems to be comfortable.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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