Daily Call

No Charts

I refer to the Weekly section for the Daily as I am unable to download my charts while traveling for the holiday. Summarize, expiration will like test the low side to the range developed during Nov. but the decline in open interest may provide some volatility in the near future.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901,

Limited Expectations

I am traveling for the holiday and I can’t get access this afternoon for my charts so please be aware. I will try to update the charts today and publish them on the website. Due to some limitations, I doubt there will be a Daily on Wednesday continuing through the weekend.

Comments on the price movement last week and going forward through the expiration this week;

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Strength Before Storage Data

Daily Continuous

Startled to see the strong rally going into the storage release but it represents the underlying strength that gas is riding this month. Storage expectations are laying on the first withdrawal of the season. Perhaps, that is the reason for the strength.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901,

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Storage Data Holds Prices

Daily Continuous

Guess the storage data which was what was expected. Now it starts to look to the expiration of the Dec contract as prompt. The majority of the impact will occur early next week before the Holiday when trade will be light — be careful and look for the Jan contract for directional bias.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901,

Range Developed

Daily Continuous

Price decline and started to test the lows from last week. Will the declines break below the lows of last week before another rebound — not convinced either way. Today should set up for the storage release on Thursday and would expect a test of the mid $4.20’s during the week.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901,

A Brief Correction?

Daily Continuous

Not sure of the declines being extended to major support yesterday reminded us that when price become over extended there will be a correction at some point. Yesterday’s decline brought the prices back below 2 standard deviations over the 20 week SMA which is a necessary correction for any further gains.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901,

Still Over-bought But Moderating

Weekly Continuous

The gains continued last week, the decline in open interest…indicating substantial short covering was a significant contributor to the rally, discussed in some detail last week, continued. Until an increase on Thursday, only the second daily increase since 10/16, the total number of contracts outstanding had fallen for ten straight days. Prompt gas closed higher on 13 of those 20 trading days and only once was there consecutive lower daily closes (three straight between 10/22 and 10/24).

The decline to Wednesday’s low total of contracts outstanding brings the reduction to 200,007 contracts (11.6%) while including a significant contribution from the premium of December over expired November ($.439) prompt gas has rallied, on a daily closing basis, from $2.938 to $4.533 ($1.595 or 54.3%). This represents an epic short covering rally.

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Rally Slows Momentum

Daily Continuous

Price positive action with one setback left prices at the high end of the range. Go into some of the underlying technical indicators in the weekly section. Would be cautious in adding significant length until the directional bias becomes better defined.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901,

Developing a Range

Weekly Continuous with Bollinger Band and RSI

The strength in the prompt is challenging levels (3 standard deviations) over the 20 week SMA and the over bought levels in the Weekly RSI. These are levels that are usually met with some sort of brief correction.

Major Support: $4.21-$4.139,$4.122,$4.055,
Minor Support : $3.942, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.394, $4.461-$4.475, $$4.901,

Today Will Be a Test On Highs

Daily Continuous

Prices remained strong, holding the gains of the past few days, setting up for a potential confirmation with the storage report. A bullish release will further support the recent movement, while a bearish release will force some traders to evaluate positions.

Major Support: $4.21-$4.139,$4.122,$4.055,
Minor Support : $3.942, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.394, $4.461-$4.475, $$4.901,

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