Daily Call

No Bias Definition

Daily Continuous

No change in the range or the establishment of a bias change. As mentioned add positions on tests of support.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00 $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Headed to Test Support

Daily Continuous

Even with the high close last week, the expectations were that prices would return to declining bias and that is happened yesterday. The question now is concerning how many bears want to take prices back to last week’s low (also the low from Oct,24) just to find a similar result. Take advantage of declines to support as discussed previously.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

In Search of a Low

Weekly Continuous

May was offered through the August 2025 low, to the lowest price traded since November ’24, and into the zone of support mathematically derived from the continuation decline from the February high before recovering to end the week with a gain. While modest, .026…the higher weekly close was the first for the May contract and on a continuation basis since March 10th. The recovery from a lower low to close back above the ’25 annual low had the look of a rejection of prompt gas below $2.60, but rather as probing for a lower price level that was rejected last August. Volume for the week was higher (modestly), and while technically positive (with the rally) comes with a caveat.

The satisfaction of a mathematical objective (test of mid term support), recovery from a lower low to close back above a previous significant low, and the unwinding of “bear spreads” (talked about a couple of weeks ago) are characteristic of the gas market attempting to define a seasonal low (I am just not convinced we won’t see a test of $2.60’s again). Volume over the last three days was significantly less than during Tuesday’s decline to the first daily close below $2.622 (the ’25 annual low)…and even though the prompt managed a close above short – term declining trend line resistance that violation was not accompanied by a volume increase. I would expect a small rally which will likely fail at resistance (numerous places up to and including $3.00), then likely retest the water in the $2.60’s.

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Run Off the Lows

Daily Continuous

After testing the mid-term support zone, prices found a bid to settle the week up (rare as that is). Go into some of the implications from that event in the Weekly section– from a daily technical perspective, I am going to seek some length (using options) on the additional retests of support. We may be running out of sellers in the coming weeks.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $2.92-$3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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No Technical Changes

Daily Continuous

Not much changed from yesterday’s comments.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Serious Support Test

Daily Continuation

The price decline continued and tested the intermediate term support levels. The declines found some bids but not sure how long it last. May be a good time to use options for some lower risk income.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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August ’25 Lows Tested

Daily Continuous

Prices continued the declines last week with further analysis provided in the Weekly section. On a daily basis would continue to respect the low from August ’25. Due to the increase open interest and volume last week the likelihood of additional sellers to dramatically push prices lower is reduced.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Market Succumbs to Intermediate Support

Weekly Continuation

Prompt May traded through and closed below the continuation February and March lows and did so with increasing volume and open interest, then continued to fall to test the August Q3 ’25 – 2025 annual low ($2.622).

The lowest weekly close during 2025 was 2.692, this week’s close at $2.648 decisively violates the weekly closing support, but lower volume during than the third week of August (2,082,932 v 2,345,182) indicates fewer willing sellers than there were at the Q3 low. Even so, the highest weekly volume total in four weeks (since 2,509,774 contracts traded during week ending 03/20/26) suggests that the initial test of the ’25 low is likely that May will be offered lower during the coming week. This week’s close was the lowest since prompt December ’24 closed at $2.525 on 10/25/24 and volume was also higher as that low was traded.

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Expansion Tests Jan Low of May Gas

Daily Continuous

Storage report gave the bears the chance to break the near term support around $2.70. The breakdown did take prices to test the Jan low of May gas ($2.689) but stopped at the 2025 low of $2.622. Now, do the recent low volume lows continue or are prices going to find a bid off this test.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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I Was Wrong

Daily Continuous

Thought with the bid decline after the cease fire that there would a new range and volatility around the low end of a new range- no volatility after the initial decline just a methodical decline expanding the low range. Have to wait and watch — just like the market players — on how to play the news and posturing.

Major Support: $2.87-$2.84, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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