Category: Daily Call

Prices started rising quickly on the storage release — then promptly ran out of steam. The range for the week is $3.915-$4.205 seems to be holding this week. Fundamental traders tell me that it is hot next week– I am assuming hat has something to do with this weeks rise– how much we will have to see. Still expecting some seasonal weakness but it may not occur until we get closer to Labor Day. What I talked about yesterday, the potential rallies, still exists in this market.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.238

As discussed, prices started strong yesterday but gave up a significant portion of the gains by the end of the day. This is a great example of the consolidation process prices should maintain during the next few weeks. As long as the fundamental information continues to support prices off and on, the market should trade in a good range between $3.84 and $4.06 during the initial consolidation process. The question is what happens when the fundamental information supporting the brief runs starts to evaporates.

Major Support: $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.87, $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.054-$4.094, $4.187, $4.238

Last week’s reversal off of higher highs is significant for trade this week. Discussed the seasonal trends in the Weekly section for your review, the only issue from last week’s action was the decline in volume in achieving the highs and the declines being met with the highest volume day on Friday in the midst of the declines and weekly close. While the market will still provide rallies (it should set a series of lower highs) prices should meet the rallies with additional selling. Key will be the volume in on days of rising prices vs volume on the days of declines. There are some interesting trends with bear spreads discussed in the Weekly section and keep your eyes on them in the coming weeks.

Major Support: $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.87, $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.054-$4.094, $4.187, $4.238

The expiration of Aug tracked a range either side of $4.00 continuing the trend of being well bid on expiration day. Now we look to at the Sept for leadership which will likely trade toward the lower end of the Aug range should the consolidation (starting earlier this week) continues its trend. While Aug tested the minor support area yesterday at $3.87, September may immediately want to test the same support. Should the bulls spark the Sept contract look for the Aug highs ($4.064) as the initial resistance.

Major Support: $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.87, $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.054-$4.094, $4.187, $4.238

After six days of gains for natural gas, prices went down yesterday, hopefully starting the consolidation period I have been looking for the last ten days. Today is expiration so the focus shifts to the Sept chart below:

Not a significant area of support but the area around $3.87 could be significant short term for the September contract either today or when it takes over as prompt. After the recent strength in the Aug contract and the trend of the last few expiration’s (discussed previously) — what happens today in the expiration is anyone’s guess.

I have no clue what piece of information hit the market at 8 am (EDT) but prices started to garner strength peaking about an hour later at $4.187– sending all the momentum analysis to new levels of strength (though still overbought). Mentioned yesterday, that the recent trend of expiration’s has been strength during the process and this month looks to be continuing that trend.

Major Support: $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.054-$4.094, $4.187, $4.238

Went into some of my reasons to doubt the sincerity of this run at this point in the Weekly section and I advise a brief look. Price may continue there ascent, as perhaps the uptrend will continue and add some more cushion before going off the board. The last four expiration months have. I will be on the sidelines in August and continue the downside trades (discussed last week) into the September contract.

Major Support: $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.054-$4.094

Well- prices finally got what they seemed to be thinking and that was trading above the $4.00 point. Now what? The market is over-bought in the extreme zone on both the daily and weekly chart; the market seems to be chasing 3 standard deviations above the 20 week SMA– let alone well above 2 standard deviations; and volume is stagnate. I will not be buying into this leg of the run– as stated numerous times in the last week– it needs to chill. Starting to look at some puts as it continues to get bullish blind.

Major Support: $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198, $3.129
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.054-$4.094