Category: Daily Call

For the third Sunday in a row — prices open weaker after bouncing off the lows during the week prior. Not sure about the trend but I did find it interesting that the Managed Money Short positions (speculative short sector) has increased their positions dramatically in the last couple of weeks (discussed in the Weekly section) and they are required to report positions at the end of the trade day on Tuesday. It would be consistent to the trend to have prices lower today and retest the support areas from last week. Longer term — would think this market may trade in the recent range from the gap $2.56 and the lows of last week during the coming week as there doesn’t seem to be any fundamental reason to impact prices.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Spoke yesterday about the potential for two outcomes from the potential volatility associated with the storage report– the third outcome was the market goes nowhere. We got the third outcome and though there was a good rally off of the initial knee jerk decline, prices just settled back to where they have been the last couple of day. Volume was strong for the day as prices churned during the day-open interest has not been posted yet.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Well, I forgot to load the comment in the Daily so it could be published on time and the Daily did not go out– my apologies. However, the trend lower ran into some buying, reversing the declines of late and allowing prices to rally. Is the market going to provide the range trade that it did in Feb? not sure but the next week will tell. Play the range from a trading perspective.

Support: $2.564, $2.422, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Early trade on Sunday night confirmed the extension of the bearish bias of late with the April contract. The Weekly has some thoughts on where prices may be headed longer to mid-term. For the Daily — look for additional tests at the Jan low of Feb gas at $2.564 down to $2.422. There are some additional areas of support discussed in the Weekly area.

Support: $2.564, $2.422, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Thought that the storage release my bring some volatility to the market – but a $.065 range in the first twenty minutes (never challenged after) seems weak. The range stays in place for now and would not expect any major break down or break out.

Support:$2.65, $2.554, $2.446, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.60, $2.162
Major Resistance:$2.887, $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.724-$2.755, $2.85

Not much to say about yesterday — but boring. We may be headed into some additional days of boredom as the fundamental issues are waning as folks are well aware of ending storage — etc.. From a trade perspective near term support has been defined (last two day lows) so now where does it go?

Support: $2.65, $2.554, $2.446, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.60, $2.162
Major Resistance:$2.887, $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.724-$2.755, $2.85

Prices extended the recent declines down to some of the support zones from the previous month. If you believe the range trade environment then this is a low risk buying area with stops just below in the $2.50’s — your risk level. Most folks know that the fundamentals are well defined for the next month and expectations of storage levels are being developed as you read. Not sure it would be wise to short this market as the opportunity for gains is somewhat limited unless you believe major support is the target.

Support: $2.693-$2.65, $2.554, $2.446, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.60, $2.162
Major Resistance:$2.887, $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.724, $2.85

Was hoping that the lower end of the developing trading range for March would be defined more dramatically than what transpired. Clearly, prices will be supported as the decline under $2.70 — but there is not a significant support areas from the $2.68 of yesterday all the way down to $2.54. Therefore the range is $2.68-$2.89 for now. What happened last month was a rare occurrence and looking for a repeat is not wise.

Support: $2.74, $2.65, $2.54, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.85