Category: Daily Call

When the market opened on Sunday night there was a “mild” correction downward — but when the market opened in the morning, prices just collapsed and went below the previous low from late September. From there, prices rebounded and closed the day back within the recent range. The bias that I have been commenting on since fall ’20 does not die with a break below the $4.70 area but the trend may get adjusted with a daily close below that area. The current trade has a slight positive bias, but since the break below $5.20 the trade is neutral until further definition. This week remains with potential volatility significant– there are two counter forces –weather forecasts vs trends of the last eight months showing strength on expiration.

Major Support: $4.825, $4.728-$4.70, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375,
Minor Support: $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.148-$5.175, $5.339-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

Prices tested major support last week and failed to break below, which will bring an interesting flavor to trade this week. On Friday, there was price strength at the close of Globex trade, and early trade on Sunday has eliminated those gains. Where does it go from here … would expect declines today (obviously) but not sure the recent trend of the last eight months will be broken (discussed further on the Weekly section). There are some potential issues this week with trading times and the days so tread carefully during the week.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.728-$4.70, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375,
Minor Support: $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.148-$5.175, $5.339-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

I guess the area between $4.80-$4.70 is going to be tough to break, so far. Yesterday or today may be the best opportunities for a break to happen. The market has shown the propensity to rally into expiration, be aware that November was the eighth straight contract month to rally into expiration…and that the last five of those have traded their pre – expiration lows between the 16th and 21st before a significant gain. Next week’s expiration will be interesting as the Holiday provides some odd situations as the market will expire on next Friday in a shortened trade day.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.728-$4.70, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375,
Minor Support: $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.148-$5.175, $5.339-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

Mentioned in a previous blog that if price action does not take advantage of the previous decline– it was go to miss a great opportunity. The same can be said for the current declines. Technical indicators are confirming the market is “consolidating” or range trading for the last couple of weeks with open interest gaining last week with volume declining from last week and lower day to day as compared to last week. The momentum indicators are calm — confirming the consolidation.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.728-$4.70, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375,
Minor Support: $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.148-$5.175, $5.339-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

I have to get used to the volatility now in the market — for the last couple of years ten to fifteen cent moves were a big thing — now we trade in a world of twenty and thirty cent moves. Reminds me of the days 5 to 20 years ago when volatility was every day (so it seems in my memory). I digress- but prices did challenge the $5.17 area and went on up to the next mini range before giving it all up towards the end of the trade day. Now What? You guessed it — more volatility and range trading like through the end of Dec contract. Remember the history of the last few months trading on strength during expiration. Too early to tell for Dec but the schedule is rather bizarre next week with the Holiday.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.728-$4.70, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375,
Minor Support: $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.148-$5.175, $5.339-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

Bouncing off of support lows from last summer, prices moved upward in an orderly way. Just as I expected the market to test the lows — I expect the run to move prices back up to $5.175 and test some of the areas of resistance. Time and weather forecasts will identify how far the rally runs. From a trade perspective, I don’t follow the fundamental data points, I will be trading based upon the range and the mini-ranges that develop.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.728-$4.70, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375,
Minor Support: $4.66
Major Resistance:$5.028, $5.076, $5.148-$5.175, $5.339-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

After prices broke down through support zones (some commonly followed) on Wednesday, they rallied back above $5.00 on Thursday only to run into additional selling. The technical break down last week can not be under stated– the only positive technical aspect to trade is the market has not closed below the key support area defined back to the fall (discussed at length in the Weekly section). If prices do not challenge those lows — they will miss a wonderful opportunity to do so. Until that happens the lows should be supportive and the low end of the trading range.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance:$5.028, $5.148-$5.166, $5.379-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

Many of you bears out there will claim that there was a break to a lower low (thereby reversing the recent bull trend) but prices did not close below that level to confirm a break down. Though the push below, the previous low, was impressive, currently it accomplished nothing more that expanding the trade range. I will be gone today so there will not be a Daily on Friday– my only comment is to work the range with tight stops — but the trend of the last couple of months is still in tack but has suffered some technical damage.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance:$5.028, $5.148-$5.166, $5.379-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

A serious technical breakdown takes prices down — trying to break the trend of the last months, prices broke through the 50 day SMA, commonly followed, and accelerated toward the key area at $4.825 only to fail. The area around the 50 day is not as significant (some traders use these areas as trend) but the key to the recent run lays with the higher low after the higher high last month and in early in Oct. A break and settle below that area may have serious impacts on the run since late August.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance:$5.028, $5.148-$5.166, $5.379-$5.40, $5.64, $5.964, $5.996,$6.177, $6.24-$6.493

Have nothing new to add to this range bound market. Perhaps we will tread water for a while until some fundamental data points either in the U.S. or Europe to spur action. The technical element only confirms the continued consolidation of prices.