Category: Daily Call

Not sure what piece of news stimulated the late morning run in prices but the reason is meaningless. The facts are the market is behaving just the way it should after breaking through support earlier. Support has been tested now the prices should test resistance, but the question is where will the test occur– at the high end of the recent range ($4.02) or somewhere in the $3.90’s. It should happen this week.

Major Support: $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $3.968, $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Signals showing the annual seasonal weakness continue with the declines yesterday setting a lower low. Continue to expect some sort of counter trend rally coming before expiration (likely). That rally should stay within the recent range but wherever it goes to — it may provide an area to sell into the rally for later in the fall.

Major Support: $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $3.968, $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Prices extended lower and set a lower low — discussed that this is the pattern that should gradually take prices lower to test support. Will go into some of the targets for the decline in the Weekly area unless they become important prior to the weekend. Prior to that, a new range seems to be developing between $3.82 and $4.00 – play it.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Prices tumble to the mid term support only to find buyers and rallies to initial resistance before melting back during the close. This is the type of activity that should continue periodically over the coming weeks. While this action will develop support and resistance areas for what will likely be a annual rise in prices during the fourth quarter.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Discussed last week in the Daily that I was waiting for the market to decline into some support areas , testing the determination of the bulls. It looks like this period is starting to occur as the volume increased during the declines of last week. The declines should continue to test various levels of support, finding some buyers at each– the trade should follow that when the buying evaporates at a lower highs — selling resumes testing lower levels of support.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

That was a good start of a correction discussed yesterday–we shall see if it is a start of the correction needed to bring elements into perspective. Until the correction goes into full mode down– expect support around $3.87 as the bulls are not done yet.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

As most of you know– I have had a bullish tint to my interpretations since last fall as I discussed the series of higher highs and higher lows that the market had printed (only slight exception was the Feb high). –I will be updating that analysis later this fall–. While nothing has changed my broader view of the technical trade (still remains bullish bias), there is one element missing in the recent 2+ month rally and that is the serious selling that forces my bullish friends to test their intestinal fortitude. Have no clue when the event occurs much less what will cause it — but it is likely to happen. Right now we just happily range trade each week with price range a little higher.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

As discussed the declines from Monday were not to be trusted and the market was likely to find support and stabilize. This is part of a range trade that should relieve some of the readings in the Bollinger study and the RSI studies (both weekly and daily). As mentioned in the Weekly section there are some other strong divergences carried in this price action that will need to be resolved — but it seems unlikely that these issues will be resolved quickly.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Call me skeptical, but I have seen this before. Solid declines with above average volume is a good start — but don’t think its a straight line down to $3.88. Can guarantee you folks are starting to line up to replace purchases sold late last week and yesterday. Let the action from yesterday play out for a day or two.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Prices close higher (further analysis of week’s move in the Weekly section) for another week but are showing divergent signs. The most important to this analyst is the lack of volume increase over the last two weeks as prices have risen. Volume during July as prompt gas rallied to close at 3.914 was significantly lower than during calendar June, which closed at 3.650, this week’s higher high was not confirmed by a higher daily or weekly RSI reading. Watch this week’s gains as prices opened strong on Sunday night, consistent with the last couple of week’s Sunday action, if you want take a more bearish position your may want to take some positions.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.238