Category: Daily Call

Have discussed here for the last week about testing and breaking above $3.00. Last week, prices had a wonderful opportunity but failed, retracing back into the range. Then on a Sunday night prices open above the key resistance area and stay above throughout the day. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Natural Gas had not shown the strength of the other commodities in price action this spring, perhaps it is catching up. If so– this run will likely last into the July trade and perhaps longer– the key is this week setting up expiration. Clearly, the longer term analysis brought forth in the fall regarding the higher highs and higher lows remains in place.

Major Support: $3.001, $2.883, $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $3.12, $3.251, $3.31, $3.396

Prices got an immediate run on the storage release only to fail and retrace back into the comfort range of late. Well, I tried to promote the concept of $3+ prices but to no avail. The technical input suggests that prices will break above that area but, perhaps, the timing will be after the June prompt. History does suggest otherwise. The only problem with this range trade it is a dime in width where before it was $.20-$.25 and better for trading.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

Getting tired of this no trade – trade. May have to update in the future with oil, corn, soybeans or copper as they seem to be taking all the trade oxygen out of the markets. Will continue to update gas but feeling terrible about being uninformative to you folks who pay fees for basically the same analysis day after day. Stick with the ranges and hope Thursday will usher a change.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

Notice the red shaded area and you will observe the huge (tongue in cheek) volatility in the spot contract this month. Nothing changed yesterday either, so consider my thoughts and insights holding for today.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

To the up or to the down is the question natural gas has before because this range is going to break. Go into some of the historical trends for the June contract on the Weekly side — but it is starting to look to this trader that the prices are going to do both events (break down and break above) — but just not sure which is first. Don’t see the break down garnering enough momentum below $2.80 (see the expiration range on the May contract) and the break above is going to banging its head at several areas (discussed in Weekly) if it ever breaks above $3.00.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.08, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

Not sure what to say here but prices seem to be consolidating in the $2.90’s instead of testing mid-term support for the base of the range. We shall see what happens as the month moves on but consistent below average volumes (comparatively) over the last four days and a volatility in range trade condensing, are not consistent technical indicators of a break down or a break out. From there come more consolidation until something happens to steer trader’s actions.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

That small decline is not to be considered a retracement of the recent gains- but rather a slight decline testing near term support. Why the significance? Prices need to retrace $.10-$.15 in order to build a base to launch a serious run at resistance. Yesterday’s declines were not a launching pad for further gains. Keep working the range in trading activities.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

You can clearly say it is trying to break above $3.00 (for the last 5 trade days) and force some shorts to cover — but by the lack of success– the market may be signalling it isn’t ready yet. Continue to sell at the top of the range– keep stops tight and be buying on any declines into the $2.80’s this week.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance: