Category: Daily Call

Ya Baby—Think That is a Well Bid Expiration

5 Minute Tick Chart of Feb Gas

Now that is a “wood shed” moment- The chart above clearly shows what happens when volume is light at expiration and some folks have to cover. The High of $7.346 is unbelievable and well above my closing range high for Feb gas in the Weekly section — That said, prices did return for a few trades with in the range. What is more important is the Daily chart below for March gas that takes over as prompt tomorrow. In the Daily chart below, notice it did not enjoy the same short cover squeeze that prompt Feb endured, rather staying well within the defined range.

Daily Continuous

Take a day or two to let the “froth” in the market to clear define it’s intention by consolidating in a new or similar range. Guess it is cold back East, buy gas now. Let this digest.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Rally Right to Expectation

Daily Continuation

Mentioned in the Weekly Section that a rally might take prices to last week’s high (false holiday rally) and that is exactly where the expiring Feb contract went yesterday. As expected, the summer nor the March followed with such gusto. If you are still in the Feb good luck– for the March and summer months I think this is a good place to sit back and take a few breaths.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522 63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance: $4.18, $4.32 , $4.39, $4.48, $4.73

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Nothing to Add

Daily Continuous

Cannot add anything to what has been said in the Daily and the Weekly– Options expiration is upon us–$4.00 will be important.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522 63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance: $4.02, $4.18, $4.32

Early Weakness –Rally — Weakness

Daily Continuation

Not a whole bunch of directional information from yesterday’s trade, rather than the fact that prices rallied only to find sellers. Summer prices lagged the gains and losses but not by a significant amount. Have discussed the recent 10 month trend of expiration’s in the Weekly section and now the market enters the last three days of trade. Perhaps weakness continues for a day or so, but you can’t bet against the trend until it breaks.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522 63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance: $4.02, $4.18, $4.32, $4.48, $4.73-$4.775, $4.818-$4.825, $5.045

Prices Rebound on Friday

Daily Continuation

Price action rebounded off of the lows from the storage report declines, bouncing off of weak support areas and found support as the day went on. This type of bounce is likely related to some changes in the forecasts and if your desire is to trade these chops then feel free. My concept is to show patience — wait for a strong test of support between $3.70 and last week’s low $3.78 to add to positions. Go into the expiration history in the Weekly section and strongly recommend reading it.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522 63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance: $4.02, $4.18, $4.32, $4.48, $4.73-$4.775, $4.818-$4.825, $5.045

Declines Extended

Daily Continuation

Prices continues lower yesterday testing the near term support at $3.82 which represents the June high at $3.814. This would be a higher low discussed in the Weekly section, but not convinced that the declines are over. The next area for a test lower is the August low at $3.734. A consolidation of the recent $.45+ decline would also be in play for the last day of trade this week.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Consolidation Leads to Break Down

Daily Continuation

Prices broke down below the commonly traded Moving Averages and started to test the support from many of the weekly highs from last December (including the lows from the week ending 12/3). A continuation of the break down will likely find little support until $3.81-$3.73 in the coming weeks.

Major Support: $4.02, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522 63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance:$4.18, $4.32, $4.48, $4.73-$4.775, $4.818-$4.825, $5.045

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Quiet Consolidation

Daily Continuation

Not a ton to write about as prices consolidated yesterday and may very well trade in a tight range again today. It seems to waiting for the next piece of news that will drive volatility. Nothing to do trading wise as prices are in the middle of recent range– hello chop trade.

Major Support: $4.02, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.27, $4.19,$3.82
Major Resistance: $4.32, $4.48, $4.73-$4.775, $4.818-$4.825, $5.045

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Volatile Week Part 2

Daily Continuation

Wrote a Daily yesterday and I doubt anyone read it so I will repeat as prices started strong on Sunday night only to retrace during the quiet trade day. Here is what was written Sunday night….

Discussed in the Weekly section, the tremendous decline in open interest since September had brought with it a potential upside vulnerability. Discussed it last week as more of a fact not a question of if.  This last week, prices all along the maturity curve moved dramatically higher with both volume and open interest increasing substantially (average daily volume by an estimated 200,000 contracts and open interest by the most contracts since the week beginning June 28th) .  I mentioned in Weekly section that February would remain range bound, while still expecting a range bound trade, clearly the levels of the range has changed to higher levels. Last weeks action also strongly suggests a significant intermediate term low may be in place.  Expect price weakness to attract substantial interest at progressively higher levels.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. )

Volatile Week

Daily Continuous

Discussed in the Weekly section, the tremendous decline in open interest since September had brought with it a potential upside vulnerability. Discussed it last week as more of a fact not a question of if.  This last week, prices all along the maturity curve moved dramatically higher with both volume and open interest increasing substantially (average daily volume by an estimated 200,000 contracts and open interest by the most contracts since the week beginning June 28th) .  I mentioned in Weekly section that February would remain range bound, while still expecting a range bound trade, clearly the levels of the range has changed to higher levels. Last weeks action also strongly suggests a significant intermediate term low may be in place.  Expect price weakness to attract substantial interest at progressively higher levels.