Category: Daily Call

Heading into the expiration and some changes in the forecasts leads to some early strength on Sunday night. The last week of the year is historically light in trade volume and subject to volatility. The technical indicators are starting to show some over sold momentum and at the low end of the December range. This week should provide some indications of the upcoming range in January.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.93, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20

While the NYMEX continues to range trade the European and Britain gas contracts have been screaming, eclipsing the highs from early October (same period that the prompt Nov set the high for NYMEX). My concern is that the run over the pond finds its way to the US as it did last fall. So far, the mild forecasts have provided the hedge folks with a good short if long the Dutch contract. That is what bothers me if those shorts are forced to cover due to forecasts changes. Will look at the data from the CFTC over the weekend to find any clues. Until then, will continue to work the range.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.93, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20

The action was quiet and likely to be lighter as the week moves on. Several folks have mentioned that the way the Holiday sets up — folks will be taking time before as well as after the Holiday. In spite of the folks traveling volume was stronger as it has been on the last three Mondays. Expect this type of behavior to continue with this caveat– the amount of open interest (bulls loosing faith) that has left the market during the month, leaves the potential for upside bias and the last nine months being well did into expiration, may eventually run prices.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.93, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20

As explained last week, the market seems to be testing a narrowing range between support and resistance. Last week provided some indication of bias as discussed in the Weekly area. Here we sit at the low (support) side of the range and prices seem to be gaining on Sunday night. Read the Weekly for expectations for the week.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.93, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20

Not much to say post storage release– prices continue to consolidate and some patterns have started to develop during the trade day which I will go into over the weekend. Unfortunately, the prices remain in the middle of the recent range developed. Continue to play the range. Heads up — the Daily will be available on Dec 20, 21 and 22 there will not be a Daily on the 23rd through the Holiday weekend. Will update on the Daily and Weekly report out on the 27th.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.93, $4.02, $4.127, $4.25 $4.61, $4.67, $4.735, $4.825, $5.10

Prices extended to the high side of the range but did not get near the true resistance area. Volume continues to decline during this consolidation phase. It should be considered as a consolidation process after the tremendous declines and need to be digested. The results from this phase will likely define the bias for the near future. Will be discussing the trends of expiration for the last 9 months in the coming week, as we are headed to lighter trade, due to the Holidays, and the market could become subject to volatility.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.931, $4.02, $4.127, $4.25 $4.61, $4.67, $4.735, $4.825, $5.10

The declines tried to test support but could only get down to $3.686 and did not quite get to support before finding buyers. Why did that happen with forecasts remaining bearish through the day (fundamental folks told me)? Guess Mother Nature (or the forecasts that claim they can predict) flipped during the late morning? What ever– you fundamental traders can be delusional at time. Think a nice range is developing here between $3.63-$4.085– play it accordingly.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.931, $4.02, $4.127, $4.25 $4.61, $4.67, $4.735, $4.825, $5.10

On script, the open was stronger, only to run into the selling on the high side of the gap. The declines were impressive considering that both the Dutch and Britain contracts closed at the highest levels since early October (10% daily gains). Perhaps we can put that garbage, surfacing amongst fundamental traders last fall, to rest. Never understood the relationship, as the US has a finite amount of LNG export capacity and has been running near those limits most of the fall (regardless of the Dutch price). Fundamental folks always need some sort of narrative to explain the rallies or the declines– usually a useless effort. Now we have another narrative, this time about the weather– yup — Chicago beaches will be open for the Holidays. Wonder how fast that will change? As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the bias in this market is bearish and selling (or shorting) rallies is critical for economic success. Not saying you can’t buy the dips — support areas– but until the market does something to change the bias this should be the strategy.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.931, $4.02, $4.127, $4.25 $4.61, $4.67, $4.735, $4.825, $5.10

Discussed last week’s action in the Weekly area of the web site so will not go over here. Each day last week after the large Monday drop– prices attacked the gap left from the Monday open and would expect the same behavior today. One of my fundamental traders said something to me last week which was basically– forecasts could not get any more bearish so any changes will likely add to demand forecasts. The remainder of December could get very interesting with open interest low (occasionally, an indicator of a bottom forming) and the summer ’22 strip looking stronger than the winter months (having closed to a meager $.13 discount to prompt) suggests the potential for a counter trend run. Did I mention that expiration of the last nine months have had rallies.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.931, $4.02, $4.127, $4.25 $4.61, $4.67, $4.735, $4.825, $5.10

Prices made another rally at the gap from Monday but to no avail. This week sets up for an interesting open next week as prices could open with a gap up (creating an island reversal) or another hard sell taking prices down and likely putting the Jan contract below the upcoming summer for 2022. The set up will come today as last Friday traded stronger only to give up the gains through the day and telegraphed what the mood was likely to be on Monday. Technical points continue to suggest the mini-range of the week with the high end the gap from Monday. I remain on the sidelines.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.931, $4.02, $4.127, $4.25 $4.61, $4.67, $4.735, $4.825, $5.10