Category: Daily Call

That was a good start of a correction discussed yesterday–we shall see if it is a start of the correction needed to bring elements into perspective. Until the correction goes into full mode down– expect support around $3.87 as the bulls are not done yet.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

As most of you know– I have had a bullish tint to my interpretations since last fall as I discussed the series of higher highs and higher lows that the market had printed (only slight exception was the Feb high). –I will be updating that analysis later this fall–. While nothing has changed my broader view of the technical trade (still remains bullish bias), there is one element missing in the recent 2+ month rally and that is the serious selling that forces my bullish friends to test their intestinal fortitude. Have no clue when the event occurs much less what will cause it — but it is likely to happen. Right now we just happily range trade each week with price range a little higher.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

As discussed the declines from Monday were not to be trusted and the market was likely to find support and stabilize. This is part of a range trade that should relieve some of the readings in the Bollinger study and the RSI studies (both weekly and daily). As mentioned in the Weekly section there are some other strong divergences carried in this price action that will need to be resolved — but it seems unlikely that these issues will be resolved quickly.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Call me skeptical, but I have seen this before. Solid declines with above average volume is a good start — but don’t think its a straight line down to $3.88. Can guarantee you folks are starting to line up to replace purchases sold late last week and yesterday. Let the action from yesterday play out for a day or two.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Prices close higher (further analysis of week’s move in the Weekly section) for another week but are showing divergent signs. The most important to this analyst is the lack of volume increase over the last two weeks as prices have risen. Volume during July as prompt gas rallied to close at 3.914 was significantly lower than during calendar June, which closed at 3.650, this week’s higher high was not confirmed by a higher daily or weekly RSI reading. Watch this week’s gains as prices opened strong on Sunday night, consistent with the last couple of week’s Sunday action, if you want take a more bearish position your may want to take some positions.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.238

Prices started rising quickly on the storage release — then promptly ran out of steam. The range for the week is $3.915-$4.205 seems to be holding this week. Fundamental traders tell me that it is hot next week– I am assuming hat has something to do with this weeks rise– how much we will have to see. Still expecting some seasonal weakness but it may not occur until we get closer to Labor Day. What I talked about yesterday, the potential rallies, still exists in this market.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.238

As discussed, prices started strong yesterday but gave up a significant portion of the gains by the end of the day. This is a great example of the consolidation process prices should maintain during the next few weeks. As long as the fundamental information continues to support prices off and on, the market should trade in a good range between $3.84 and $4.06 during the initial consolidation process. The question is what happens when the fundamental information supporting the brief runs starts to evaporates.

Major Support: $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.87, $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.054-$4.094, $4.187, $4.238

Last week’s reversal off of higher highs is significant for trade this week. Discussed the seasonal trends in the Weekly section for your review, the only issue from last week’s action was the decline in volume in achieving the highs and the declines being met with the highest volume day on Friday in the midst of the declines and weekly close. While the market will still provide rallies (it should set a series of lower highs) prices should meet the rallies with additional selling. Key will be the volume in on days of rising prices vs volume on the days of declines. There are some interesting trends with bear spreads discussed in the Weekly section and keep your eyes on them in the coming weeks.

Major Support: $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.87, $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.054-$4.094, $4.187, $4.238