Category: Daily Call

What an interesting day to trade and I got caught off sides at the beginning as prices declined, only to flip and gain through the day. You all know what the next comment is –“if prices don’t decline on bearish news (storage report) then they are headed up”. Somewhere in this process there should be a test of support between $4.60 and $4.80 but no clue as to when or from where. The market is over bought in the extreme zones but that has happened before and the ending (historically) was not pretty. Be very careful to adding significant positions in this environment.

Major Support: $4.61, $4.378, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511
Minor Support: $4.90, $4.728-$4.70, $4.65
Major Resistance: $5.01, $5.21-$5.39

The CME updated the data from yesterday and it showed a slight increase in open interest — so my theory was incorrect from the Daily earlier.

Not sure what that rally was all about and I am sure that those in the narrative industry have it all figured out (they wish they can explain movements and feel important)– I will rack it up that some folks were expecting the declines from Monday as insight to selling and wanted to catch some of the shorts which is as good an explanation as any. Frankly the “why” is of no interest to me. That activity happens in all commodities on a daily basis. More important to me is the next move– because we have discussed many times, that positive moves based on short covering are not long for life. The CME website has not updated the data with preliminary results from yesterday’s trade so there is no way to confirm short covering. Will update on the Website tomorrow during the day– if interested check in later in the morning. With the move yesterday– the market is starting to be a little frothy again.

Major Support: $4.378, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.65
Major Resistance: $4.904, $5.01, $5.21-$5.39

After last week’s monster run in prices, it was good to see the market consolidate yesterday with a decline. This decline will not likely satisfy the seasonal weakness discussed in the Weekly section — but it is a start. Would expect a brief bounce in prices off of move and would look to see if resistance from last week holds.

Major Support: $4.378, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance:,
Major Resistance: $4.66, $4.706-$4.728, $4.779, $4.904

Not much interpretation needed, prices ended the week near the highs and then in the late market moved higher. On Monday, the Globex platform traded with strength at the start only to give it up toward the end of the shortened day. There is a need for some consolidation in prices (I remember suggesting that at $4.10) and perhaps that will occur in the next week or two (see Weekly section for further analysis) sending prices softer for a while. This will be interesting to witness in the coming week.

Major Support: $4.378, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance:,
Major Resistance: $4.66, $4.706-$4.728, $4.779, $4.904

Compared to some recent days, yesterday proved rather quiet and somewhat uneventful (other than a higher intra-day high) as prices seemed to chill after the recent parabolic move. I hear different reasons as to “why” this move is not over and will explode further from the fundamental folk out there- which quite honestly, I could care less as I focus on the market price moves which entail the fundamental perceptions as a whole not the narrative that some folks are trying to define for what ever reasons (perhaps it is group think– they can’t all be wrong — right?). As discussed, this time of year (Labor Day and the weeks around it) has some historical weakness to it but perhaps this year is different — we shall see. One element I would advise is ignore the narratives out in the market and continue to base trading on technical developments. The market is still not over-bought on a weekly closing basis but is starting to show some exhaustion.

Major Support: $4.378, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance:,
Major Resistance: $4.66, $4.706-$4.728, $4.779, $4.904

Discussed yesterday the old adage “if markets don’t go down when there supposed to, then they will go up”– no doubt about that yesterday. The third quarter low is likely in and similar to last year it was in early July, off of the Independence day weakness. We are now entering another period of historical seasonal weakness (either side of the Labor Day weekend)– but not expecting a major correction like last year (nearly a dollar decline from Aug 28th to Sept 21st). Will discuss the target for the declines later in the week or over the weekend. Want to evaluate the weekly charts on volume, open interest, and the Bollinger bands after this week’s continuation of the break out that started last week.

Major Support: $4.378, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance:,
Major Resistance: $4.66, $4.706-$4.728, $4.779, $4.904

This trade activity is starting to “tweek” me a little. Expected the reaction to IDA on Monday but without a significant amount of new information in the market, yesterday’s rally caught me off-guard. I learned a long time ago that when markets don’t behave like they should something is amiss. A market that gets bearish news on demand (natural gas) and goes up– sends a signal. Not sure what exactly is going on but discussed in the Weekly section, my thoughts on the potential market behavior.

Major Support: $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance: $4.508-$4.485,
Major Resistance: $4.532, $4.66

Price rally suffered slight break down to the close from the last Thursday’s rally off of the storage report. That initial test of support was a likely spot for prices to find. Now we start to evaluate the actual damage and power loss from the storm, which will likely keep prices volatile for the next couple of days.

Major Support: $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance: $4.508-$4.485,
Major Resistance: $4.532, $4.66

This is a dangerous period for the market — Last weeks strong gains were tied to IDA and the expectations associated with it. Now we get the actual news of damage, combined with LNG restrictions and demand destruction. Prices open last night expanding to a new high, but this move was prior to any knowledge of the actual events associated from the storm. If buying looking for additional gains- keep stops tight as the elevator may decline swiftly. If selling looking for a correction, there are not numerous areas for support until you find the storage report lows (last Thursday) after the report was released. That event started this move higher (some might call it parabolic).

Major Support: $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance: $4.508-$4.485,
Major Resistance: $4.532, $4.66