Category: Daily Call

The Warning Came on Monday

Daily Continuous

The trade on Monday sent out a warning shot that prices will head higher, perhaps not all week but for the upcoming weeks, expect a solid test of $10.00. Buyers are coming ahead of support zones and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of sellers at resistance zones. Interesting week we are in– tread carefully.

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Correction Started — Then Got Lost

Daily Continuation

As expected a correction to test support levels below commenced on the open and ran out of sellers by mid morning. Pay attention to that detail over the next couple of days. If prices can’t test some semi-important support levels before buyers come in — my expectations may not be met. This week will prove very important to trade going into expiration and the seasonal weakness associated with Labor Day.

Major Support:$8.04, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Don’t Believe Retests of Support are Over

Daily Continuous

Not sure the market will continue gains — but rather history suggests that this is seasonal period of weakness at the end of August and early Sept. There will be another test of support — but the support level may by higher ($7.50 per the Weekly analysis). Whether it can garner the support from there will remain a question. Sunday night trade suggests additional weakness– but that may just be the normal Sunday noise.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Supply and Demand Near Expectations

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Not too sure what to make of the trade yesterday. The Storage release came well within expectations (according to the press reports) only to go nowhere on the release. Then prices started a solid onslaught of gains through the day– challenging the $9.00 late in the morning. From the tech side — rally to the resistance with a brief break out above only to fail at the next level of resistance and close just above the previous resistance zone — not what I would suggest as compelling rally for higher prices.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Prices Continue to Advance

Daily Continuation

Nice gains off of the rebound — now the market needs to digest the battle between dry gas production vs demand and LNG– commonly referred to as the storage release. Technical data points continue to support the rally, but as the chart above shows the rallies have run into profit taking and a lack of commitment to higher prices.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Trend Line and Moving Averages Hold– this time

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Discussed the support zones facing the market and on cue prices tested the levels. Still there just a little higher on the rebound — not sure the area will hold all week.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Prices Decline to Trend Line Support

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Solid test of the support that has basically held the close for the last month (50 Day SMA)– and now we need to watch what price action occurs. A break below will bring addition covering of length, likely expanding the recent range down to $7.00 ish.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support:$7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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Consolidation — Not Out of the Possibilities

Daily Continuation

Prices performed a brief correction last week to rebound and towards the end of the trade week started to behave similar to a price consolidation pattern. We will see this week but the normal Sunday excitement was muted last night.

Major Support: $8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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There May Be a Range Developing

Weekly Continuation

Expiring August booked a gain during the final days of its tenure while last week’s continuation decline to a lower weekly close produced a technically negative weekly reversal bar but with lower weekly volume. The expectation of lower offers when trading resumed Monday was fulfilled by a gap lower being quickly filled, but the stage was set for lower trade and the market was compliant toward targeted support. On Wednesday, September traded to a low of $7.550 (just about matching a 50% retracement of the rally from the July low to the August options expiration day high was $7.53) and the 50 – day SMA of September gas at $7.5494. After a brief test of the mathematical and moving average support prompt gas rallied $.93 in one hour, before fading to close $.56/dt higher, basically offsetting the previous day’s $.577 decline. September lost another $.202 on Thursday and Friday, ending the week $.1650 below the close a week earlier. Do you start to develop a sense that this market in volatile state going nowhere slowly.

Open interest and volume were both marginally higher for the week which is a technical negative for prices in the upcoming week. The decline from the June high to the July low was an intermediate term downtrend within the long – term uptrend. That said, the late July trade to a higher high that intermediate term downtrend has morphed into an exceptionally wide trading range. Rarely if ever has substantial support and resistance been so well defined…or so far apart.

Major Support: $8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

Bearish Storage Number — Prices Hold Support

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From what I was told by the fundamental folks — the data release was from the bearish perspective ( prices had declined into the release) but prices found support at $8.00. That action continued what I discussed earlier in the week regarding forming a range to trade. This would be a “manageable” range from a trading perspective rather than the wild volatility we have endured in the last month or so. Time will tell should the current behavior continue.

Major Support: $8.02, $7.55, $7.14, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support: $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.95, $8.996-$9.057

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