Category: Daily Call

My apologies for a lack of publications yesterday — brutal stomach ailment. Would of mentioned yesterday, and will again today, that the market is having a hard time with”key” levels ($6.00 this month $5.00 last month) and will correct back to the “key” levels. Last month price retreated 10% before rallying into the close. Does the market trade and close below the key level — no clue. Would expect another consolidation day or two around the $6.00 area as the market interprets the fundamental indicators going forward.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.24-$6.28, $6.366, $6.466

As discussed yesterday, prices spent some yesterday consolidating the gains from recent trade. Longer term technical indicators are not over bought and would still support a test of high end of the range discussed in the Weekly section yesterday. As discussed in the Weekly section, there is likely a brief correction but would not initially expect the retracement to carry far (perhaps $5.25-$5.30). Total volume yesterday was close to the highs from last storage report but lower than last Friday– still support higher prices and continued gains.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.83, $5.97, $6.24

The expiring April extended its rally to $5.653 last week before fading to expire at $5.336 (similar to expiring March contract which traded to $4.944, the high of its tenure as prompt, before going off the board at $4.568). April settled higher than March for the first time since 2018. May (which closed $.006 discount to April settlement, traded lower on its first day as prompt, then reversed higher. Considered an “outside” day reversal with increasing volume left the new prompt at the highest daily continuation close since November 4th (one exception was the bizarre Feb expiration). The last trading day of March ended with another higher close and the first one above the February high. Calendar month closes above the previous month’s high are usually an indication of continuation of the intermediate term trend (bullish).

Volume and open interest increased along with price for a second week. Average daily volume was an estimated 40,000 contracts higher than last week’s +/- 47,000 increase over the prior week’s. Open interest increased a modest 4,000 contracts last week (from Thursday through Thursday). Volume and open interest moving in the same direction as price is a significant technical positive.

Prices continued there gains to test the highs from last November as prices tried to retrace the declines from the late October run. From those gains prices declined and closed just above the Feb high for gas. From here the near term technical data points lean to a slight over bought condition but longer term indications are not at the extreme levels.

Major Support:$5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.572, $5.65, $6.24

While there was a slight rally into the expiration process and prices declined on the expiration day, they immediately regained strength with the May contract as prompt. Does this run eclipse the $5.65 or is there some consolidation period. Short term trade would include the run up to the aforementioned resistance and selling some on the gains. If you are shorting the market –keep stops tight as a break above that level will open you to a $.20 gain on the next move.

Major Support:$5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.572, $5.65, $6.24

Shockingly, the market declined slightly yesterday after last week’s run. The question now is does it move higher on expiration. Not much to do but look for “bizarre” runs or declines and play those with options. Keep trades with tight stops.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.08, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.33, $5.572, $5.65, $6.24

Thirteen consecutive runs during the expiration process– that said, mentioned in the Weekly section that due to the rally of last week, perhaps the run in the last two days may be more muted. The other side of that thought is the Feb expiration which rallied to over $7.00 after showing strength prior to that day. You know my thoughts (like to preserve capital), and will stay away from instituting new positions over the next two days,

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.08, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.33, $5.572, $5.65, $6.24

This market may continue to rally through the next three days (expiration process) but it should be safe to say that the market continues the trend of rallying into the expiration for the 13th consecutive month. I would not expect the market to decline below the Friday close from last week at low from Friday last week below $5.00. How high can it go — unknown (just look at the Feb expiration)– as the market is just now starting veer into over bought conditions.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.08, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.33, $5.572, $6.24

While the early strong gains were impressive, some bulls decided to take some profits in the move. Declines from the high were indicative but not conclusive that future gains will not occur as the those declines were slight compared to the weekly move. This week’s move over $5.00 needs to be confirmed that folks are comfortable over that level which should mean a test below and a consolidation around the key level.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.08, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.18, $5.33