This Week It Is the High End

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Last week the market tested the low end of the range and closed the day just off the lows– this week prices are testing the high end of the range and close yesterday just off the highs. Explained last week that the price action was great for the traders and it continues to be. My only concern is when does the high end break out or when does the low end break down. For now .. it is the potential break out to higher prices.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Price Action Decides to Challenge Resistance

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It didn’t take long for the market to rebound and run a little off of last week’s test of support and start to challenge the the near term resistance. Did not expect the run as quick nor as decisive as it was– but here we are. Find it interesting that some of the pundits have started to adjust commentary to more bullish aspects of the market (heat continuing, Russia cutting gas to Europe and storage still at a surplus to averages — now later has become a concern) but if my suspicions are accurate — you will see a test of last months highs coming.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.754, 2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Range Continues to Hold

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Prices stayed in the near term range (discussed in the Weekly Section) last week and I will expect the continuation of this pattern for the near term. Know it is boring and not a lot of revenue potential but it can provide good opportunities selling premium in the options market.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.754, 2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Trader Heaven

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If you are a trader you have to love this action. Prices decline to test the support level then immediately rebound. My question is where does this rally take prices to– stick with the range and the mini-range from last week for the resistance area just beyond $2.70.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.754, 2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Tests and Closes the Day at Mid Term Support

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Just when I made the comment about the boring aspects of the market it decides to break lower and test the support zone from the middle of June that has held the market since ($2.47). Now what happens — do the bears force declines to the $2.20area or does it find buyers for a short term bounce.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Exciting — Isn’t it

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Does the concept of watching paint dry come into play here.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

Going Nowhere at a Turtle Pace

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Not much to see and little to do as prices remained dormant for the upcoming fall. Not enough volatility to make selling premium a strong option and no directional bias sounds like a recipe to go fishing. This may turn out to be the way the September contract plays out with no strong bias and just in a range. We shall see.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Daily Market Hitting a Inflection Point

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Prices will be feeling out the variance in trader’s perspective in the coming weeks as the weather forecast have provided milder (but strong) demand for early August compared to the recent bullish forecasts last week. Historically, prices decline in general during early August before rallying– leading into the historically weak Labor day weekend. This year will b interesting to watch the outcome of a struggle between the fundamental day trade and the medium term trade (3-6 months).

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Weak Expiration and Separation

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August expired at the low end of the recent range while the Sept contract found some footing and separated to the expiration contract behavior. Would continue to expect that Sept continues the recent continuation range and quite possibly the medium term range between $2.82- $2.45ish for its tenure as prompt. We shall see.

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Little Movement

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I should of gone fishing this week rather that repair my internet theft of passwords and account data. Either way the market seems in no mood to break out or down. Hate to say it but the range trade and selling premium is the way to work this.

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