Category: Daily Call

Momentary Volatility

Daily Continuous

found a brief moment of price movement after the release, likely short covering on the number being more bullish than expected, but then prices just spent the remainder of the day retracing lower. Again, no major commitment in either bias. Snooze along.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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The Beat Goes On

Daily Continuous

Missed the email yesterday, but nothing has changed with the roll over to April as prompt. Perhaps the storage report will provide some volatility, but I am not sure. Everyone knows that we are well supplied with gas coming out of the winter– it is basically the reason we are trading under $2.00. I am still working the call spreads and selling other premium to just keep interested in a very boring market.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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April Takes Over

Daily Continuous

Did not get this out in the mail today, my apologies, but to tell the truth, wasn’t even going to post today due to the lack of action. Market seems to maintain range bound action- so lets see if it challenges the resistance area before the storage data comes out on Thursday.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Consolidation? Not Sure

Daily Continuation

Have no clue if this is a consolidation process or just range trading after testing the higher side of the range. Needless to say, this may just be the market scrambling during the expiration process. My attitude has always been about staying away from the expiration trade. Continue with that thought.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Are Cracks Developing in Bear Cave

Daily Continuous

Not saying that the bear market is coming to a new definition but some of the “divergences” may be starting to develop. A lower low last week , but not confirmed with a lower RSI (lacking momentum), declining open interest (see Weekly) as prices rose, prices manage to close just at (or slightly above) the the 2 standard deviation band. This may be a market that will need time to correct from its condition (see Weekly) but it will and there is likely higher prices and more short covering headed into the game.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Storage Report Brings Consolidation

Daily Continuous

With the recent bearish trade, my expectations that the new headlines regarding production cuts would become history and declines would continue again. To my surprise, declines were held to the previous day’s lows. Time will tell if the operators comments will drive prices longer term. Until then, continue to play the call spreads, mentioned earlier in the week, using the further summer months.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Late Strength Held

Daily Continuous

The late day rally yesterday was confirmed as prices remained strong throughout the day. The rally was based upon news that some operators were lowering production volumes and limited new projects. Not exactly sure what the sellers (hedge funds) were thinking with production being strong while prices were at $1.50 or below at the well head. The only tool the operators have is the amount they produce and drill for. The first salvo has now been fired — and today (storage report) will provide further insight as to bias near term.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Well That Is Interesting

Daily Continuous

Did not see that move at the end of the trade day. Outcry session closed under normal action and then prices jumped $.10 in less than 10 minutes (after hours light volume but significant volume) almost looking like some sort of fundamental news hit the wire. Regardless, that shows the potential impact of a short covering event– not sure if that is the beginning but can guarantee that the slight rally did not have any impact on the short level of open interest. Most interesting to me is the storage report later in the week and how prices react. There is a potential, for some signals that market may give on how prices trade through the rest of the week.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Contrary to Expectations

Daily Continuous with RSI

Several of the reasons that form my conclusion that this current decline may be coming to an end, are found in the Weekly section of the web site, but the market wanted to make sure I may have jumped ahead of myself by extending the declines slightly on the light volume President’s Day. To frank I did mention that the is likely coming just not sure when. Well it didn’t yesterday. Due to the condition of the oversold market the value of some call spreads later in the summer are reasonable.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Bearish Storage Has Little Effect

Daily Continuous

Not sure what fundamental expectations were, but after recovering from some “crab cakes” yesterday- I learned that the storage report was a smaller withdrawal than expected. Prices initially declined, but then during the day, found some buying. My apologies for missing the Daily but in my condition you would not wanted to read my insights. All I can say is “looking for a bottom”.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432
Minor Support :
Major Resistance $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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