Category: Daily Call

Jury Is Out

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While prices were up and down during yesterday’s expiration, I am going to state that the expiration process was well supported, thereby breaking the trend of the previous expiration’s of 2024 which were all well offered during the process. What does this mean?—The bearish bias (all through this year) is starting to take some hits. The first target is the gap remaining from the premium awarded the Nov contract (even though some of that gap was closed during yesterday’s decline). This will be the first test of a confirmation of a bullish bias change.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.618, $3.00, $3.16

November Maintains $.20 Premium

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Today is expiration and the market has not shown a weakness yet, but the verdict is not yet defined. I continue to reflect on what was identified from the trends of ’24 and will expect some weakness.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Some Firming

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Price action declined slightly but did not represent the weakness of the previous ’24 contracts– The jury is still out per my Daily yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Next Three Days Are Key

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Mentioned in the Weekly section: … eight contract months that have gone to settlement so far in ’24 three have traded pre expiration highs on or after the 22nd. May fell hard during its last three days, August for five straight days the others had variations of weakness and timing, Once it became evident that expiring contracts were being “amply offered”…five of the eight have traded contract lows on the day they went to settlement. Have mentioned it before that, a change in that pattern would indicate a change in the character of the gas market. This week we will find out whether that change has occurred.

How do you say the rubber will be meeting the road this week. Be interesting to watch after the gains of yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

High Weekly Close — Bullish

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The market closed at its high last week and the highest since last June. Discussed the impacts of the changes last week in the Weekly section, all that can be said here is the implication of the last 8 expiration’s and the weakness that these have provided. Would expect more of the same until it doesn’t happen.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Struggles

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Market is having struggles breaking out and holding the gains, but with the season’s starting to change and the ending inventories of storage becoming known, I would expect the price to break through to the upside eventually.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Breaking Resistance Takes Commitment

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It seems that there just is not the commitment to send prices above the resistance yet. On the other side of trade, the lack of pounding prices lower is also a significant missing ingredient. Here we sit in a range trade game.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Daily Close At the Highs

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Spending a lot of time and contracts at the resistance area. Looks to this trader that it may break into the $2.40’s which may force some short covering action. On the other side prices may retreat back into the high teens to test support.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Day By Day Verdict For Futures

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Last week showed some resilience as a higher high and higher lows printed. Go into some of the technical analysis in the Weekly area but suffice to say higher highs and higher lows are supportive to a positive trend movement. The next week or so will provide more information to digest. This can be indicative of a trend bias change –stay tuned.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

A Break Above Resistance

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Didn’t see that coming this week- spoke about the YoYo in the market behavior but the string was snapped and price closed above the intermediate term resistance. Looking at the chart above, notice there was a similar breakout in both July and August only to give the gains immediately. Is this one different — tomorrow and Monday trade will define. Would not load up long quite yet but as the Weekly suggested the bias may be changing.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $2.18, $2.26, $1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16