No Such Weakness — Yet

Daily Continuous

Little weakness yesterday as prices firmed after a Sunday night decline. Posting a gain it will be interesting to see if the strength continues through the full expiration process. Discussed the historical aspect of the recent expiration’s in the Weekly section so how the market behaves will provide some insight as to the future of natural gas prices.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

Expiration Should Bring Weakness

Daily Continuous

Have discussed the trends of the last few months at expiration and it is clearly a bearish bias. Should it continue (expect another well offered contract) then prices will continue lower into the sub- $2.60 area.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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Oops — Got Caught

Daily Continuous

Ok, I confess, wrote yesterday’s Daily thinking I would roll it over to today’s — little did I know that prices were going to drop into the low end of the range. — Was not going to update (limited internet sources) but have decided to use my mobile hot spot on the phone. Nothing has changed except that prices declined to the low end of the range regardless of Storage.

Storage release should give us one of two options — if it is bullish to expectations, prices are likely to test the double top of the July contract seen below:

Daily Prompt July Contract

On the other side of the expectation potential will be a bearish report sending price back to the low of the July trading range (down to $2.70-$2.50).

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.944, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

Storage Should Provide Future Bias

Daily Continuous

Storage release should give us one of two options — if it is bullish to expectations, prices are likely to test the double top of the July contract seen below:

Daily Prompt July Contract

On the other side of the expectation potential will be a bearish report sending price back to the low of the July trading range (down to $2.70-$2.50).

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Rocking Slowly to Resistance

Daily Continuous

After testing support earlier this week, prices showed some strength and crawled up to enter some of the near term resistance around $2.94-$3.00. We have a storage report that may effect prices– but I doubt it will have impact on the longer term bullish market bias.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.944, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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Additional Weakness Continues

Daily Continuous

Price action continued its bearish seek of the low end of the trading range yesterday and seems to be seeking the low end of the range for the upcoming period. While there is some variation as history rhymes, prompt gas continues to follow the pattern of the spring/early summer of ’23. A year ago, prompt gas traded the May high on 05/19 at $2.685: this year at $2.924 on 05/23. The early June ‘23 seasonal low traded on 06/01 while this year on 05/29. The June ‘23 – Q2 high traded on 06/28…about $.15 higher than the May high ($2.839…after which expiring July faded to go off the board at $2.603). So far, the June ’24 high has traded $.235 higher than the May high. I am always startled by how a commodity like natural gas seems to follow some of its historical traits. Let the low range become defined as the fundamental input is well established.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.944, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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Market Extends Declines Low End to Range

Daily Continuous

Expected some strength at the end of last week but got further weakness that extended the declines. Was expecting weakness but thought it would come this week. Now were going to develop the low end of the range that will likely carry through the July 4th historically weak period.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.944, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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A Break Below — Mild Response

Daily Continuous

Prices broke below the $3.00 area but the response was rather moot. We may very well be developing a range for prices to trade the month with in. The next week should confirm that with a retracement upward today followed by declines next week. What do I call that — on yea — consolidation.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.944, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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Support Continues to Hold

Daily Continuous

For the second consecutive day, prices tested and held the support (old resistance) zone at $3.00. The storage report will likely provide yet another test today. The longer the zone holds the stronger it will get — so we will have to watch the zone over the next week. History tells us that the current price levels and the June (calendar) high may provide some relief for these tests.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $3.00, $2.944, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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Prices Rally –Support at Breakout Holds

Daily Continuous

Prices continued the gains from the close of Monday and set a new continuous high for natural gas. From the bullish standpoint the holding of support at old resistance ($3.00) a bullish development. From the bearish position the $3.00 level will need to break with a follow down to $2.84.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.844, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$2.94, $2.97, $3.00, $3.16

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