Category: Daily Call

Whip-saw Confusion

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I must admit that from a technical standpoint yesterday is understandable as prices found support from a near term zone. What I get confused about is the weather forecasts have above temps through the Holiday which historically pressured prices in Dec. Stick with the range discussed here several times and be nimble. Seems to be something else in the Natural air.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.307 $3.392, $3.487, $3.527–$3.563

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Declines Run Low on Volume

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The start on Sunday night stated with a big decline and extended those declines in the middle of the night — only to find a gradual support bias that took prices back to where the initial opening decline began the trade. Again, the range has likely been developed during the last week or so. Mentioned it in the Weekly last week. Use the option market for short term gains in the next week as volume based bias is unlikely to present itself.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.307 $3.392, $3.487, $3.527–$3.563

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Prices Testing Lower Range

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Go into the expectations in the Weekly section bu suffice to say, that prices are likely to continue in the recent range that was discussed last week but mentioned again in the Weekly. Prices are starting the Sunday trade lower — so expect a decline lower to the Support zone.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.307 $3.392, $3.487, $3.527–$3.563

Storage Release Brings Bulls Out

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Not sure that the bullish storage release changes perceptions but it is clear that the withdrawal caught a few off guard. Not sure if it was short covering as the CFTC report does not come out until Friday and the open interest data is delayed be one day. Look for confirmation from the trade today and on the open on Monday for a longer term bullish bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.307 $3.392, $3.487, $3.527–$3.563

Trying To Test Resistance

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Prices decided to rally and started to test resistance before the storage release tomorrow. Perhaps some folks have an idea of what is coming. Not sure — I don’t and can only relate that the recent rally in nat gas could be related to the overall strength of commodities as the weather is not supportive to this level.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.307 $3.392, $3.487

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What Can Be Said — Consolidation

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Prices semi tested the low side and now it looks to want to test the resistance area of the range. We’re just going to have to be patient here as price choose the bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.307 $3.392, $3.487

Prices Come Off From Early High

Daily Continuation

After the strong start off of Sunday night, price action was pressured to give up some of the gains, closing in the middle of the range. Would expect additional tests of both support and resistance during the months actions. Quiet range trade environment this month.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.307 $3.392, $3.487

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Off To A Strong Start

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Prices closed the week just off of key support areas and on Sunday night prices are up $.20. No clue what that is all about but so be it. Expect the range developed over the last couple of weeks to hold this week and into the contract expiration (depending on events in the next couple of weeks).

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.307 $3.392, $3.487

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Consolidation Post Decline

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As discussed two days ago, the expectation of prices testing the $2.95-$3.00 zone has occurred and yesterday, after the storage release there was a brief counter rally that took prices up on to have them be sold during the remainder of the trade day. Seem like the market is starting a consolidation process in order to define the upcoming bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.307 $3.392, $3.487

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Developing Low Side of Range

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Last couple of days have sent the market down, setting up the low side of the range for the early Jan contract. Not sure how low the declines will take prices but would expect some buying to support the market around $3.00-$2.95.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.307 $3.392, $3.487