Category: Daily Call

Strong Close to Week–Not Sure Enough

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As we wrap up the Jan trade and put the Feb contract to bed, I am startled at the behavior with strong days of volatility, but over the month prices moved within a $1.00 Range (less than 30%). Must be aging faster than I thought–or the market is changing (both thoughts are accurate). Go into expectations in the Weekly section and will not attempt to give you a expiration range (especially because prices are down $.20 on Sunday night)– I can only recommend that you keep a eye on the March contract pictured in the Weekly section. That trend line may prove important.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,

Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856

Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

Strong Run Into Storage

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Prices rallied on the expectation of a substantial with drawl from storage last week. Some analysts are stating that the report will likely take inventories from a surplus to a deficit against the 5 year average. Perhaps folks bought into the report — now the question will be is there further buying to be had after the release. The range has not change for the Feb contract.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

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Steady Declines

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The declines continued but never really challenged the low end of support. If a buyer– wait for tests of support. The declines in prompt were significant compared to the outer months so you will need to set up range areas for the differed contracts per your risk range. The prompt will fall faster than differed like yesterday — so establish the support area you are comfortable with. Bears have to wait to a rally to establish positions.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

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Holiday Quiet Trade

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Just want to reiterate the comments from yesterday and price action had no change to the comments from yesterday’s comments.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

Friday’s Weakness Likely to Spill Over

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The $.40 collapse in prices on Friday indicates that the run up ran out of steam as prices attacked the $4.30 (and above) area was not surprising as technical indicators confirmed the lack of long term support for higher prices. Today is a light trading day with the Holiday — which presents itself as a potential opportunity to indicate near term bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

Another Close Over $4.00

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Prices close over the key area of $4 again and is starting look like its comfortable at those levels.Perhaps some of the strength is tied to the price of crude or the idea that the storage release should be a fairly strong number (perhaps eliminating a large chunk of the surplus over the 5 year average). Regardless, of where the strength is sourced — it should be respected and traded.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461, $4.75

Rally Short Lived

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The Sunday rally was short lived (less that an hour in the open trade), with prices coming back to the high close last week. That is a daily reversal and now lets watch to see if it becomes a weekly reversal. Gather the forecasts changed which abandoned the bulls from Sunday– such is life when you are playing weather forecasts.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20

Daily Close At the Highs

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Go into the impact of the close last Friday and Daily impacts in the Weekly section but the open on Sunday night challenge some of the thoughts. One thought remains from the price action is the rally on Sunday night will likely run into serious selling at some point, from my perspective trading this rally will require tight stops and remember that the market is over- bought and keep you eyes on Bollinger Band study which has the price action well over the two standard deviation band (Upper band is at $4.10 currently).

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20, $4.378

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Solid Gains on Bearish Release

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Trade started strong and what I thought was bearish storage release, prices stayed supported. That may be a clue in itself for the near term.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.631-$3.681, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20

Comparatively, A Quiet Day

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Compared to some of the recent trade days this year, yesterday have a “calm” day in terms of volatility. Perhaps is is just a set up for the storage data release or think of any thing else you want to. After last week’s reversal off of the high — I am going to stick with the bearish perspective from a general bias perspective — but will take advantage of any volatility that comes my way

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.39-$3.31, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.631-$3.681, $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.20