Category: Daily Call

Somewhat of a Reversal

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The trade yesterday provided a daily reversal (waiting to see the volume data) from an extraordinary Sunday night late rally. The action created an interesting Candlestick pattern the may become relevant if confirmed in later trade this week. Until those and other elements of yesterday’s extraordinary price action come clearer as the week moves along.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.369, $4.212, $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

9

Market Defines Its Bias

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The market doesn’t show its hand much clearer than last week. Starting the week off weak prices rallied, then it provided two more occasions to add to or explore weakness- both of them turned out to be buying opportunities. The old saying of buying the dips in a bull market is successful proved itself evident as each one of the buying opportunities were high volume days and even when the market started to correct, volume went down–low volume days on short corrections is a bullish signal as well. No ideas as to when the buying stops or why but watch the technical indications for some signal. One to consider is a higher high daily (or weekly) reversal.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $4.369, $4.212, $4.00, $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Market Committed to +$4.00 For Now

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Not stating that the market will not decline back under the $4.00 level, but last week, I mentioned that the break above and the several attempts showing strength at and above that level was a key to the bias of the gas market. I am still not willing to commit that the $2.99 printed was the Q1 low but it looking more and more that the market is not interested in visiting those declines. This week’s gains have been on supported by higher volume (through Tuesday) and gains in open interest that suggests that there is more room to move higher. Today, we get storage and it may give us inclinations of gains continuing or a brief correction lower after three solid days of gains.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

Failure At Resistance

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Prices rocked and rolled up to that key area around $4.46 only to fail after venturing to $4.55, setting a higher high trade. This bullishness should be respected for the future, but considering each rally has failed and given up a significant amount of the day’s gains suggests a lack of total commitment to sending prices higher in the upcoming Q2. Seasonally, Q2 is met with price strength and it sure seems this market wants to run but lacks enthusiasm. More important, does it now give up the total gains and reverts to the range developed in the last week.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Rhyming With History — Weakness in March

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Continued the declines on Friday- closing the week on the lows. Not a lot of positive momentum when prices close on the lows of the week (and the week before). This was to expected if you follow the history of natural gas which was discussed here for the last week of so. Question remains though of how far down will the market pursue before finding a base to consolidate around. Go into some of the implication in the Weekly.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Brief Pause

Daily Continuation

Mentioned yesterday that the potential for a consolidation around $4.00 and that seemed to have happened. Time will tell how the folks figure out the variance between fundamental data or the technical implications. We need to sit on the side and let the participants figure the upcoming bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Expiration Just Below $4.00

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The now prompt April contract will likely be me with some softness, continuing the recent trade. The potential exception would be the storage report, should there be a surprise. Short of a surprise, I am expecting a consolidation — low volatility market for the next few days.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

A Brief(?) Rebound

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The market rebounded off of the declines from Monday — some of the gains may have been associated with the options expiring — and we will see today. A rhyme with 2014 — will lead to further weakness — testing support. In 2008, (did not discuss in the Weekly) prices held into early July. In 2008, it is the only year (last 25 years) that prices held the February highs over Jan highs. Market seems to defining it’s near term bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.16-$4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Expectations of the “Rhyme”

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Discussed from a historical perspective the few times the Feb trade took out the highs from Jan and made reference to the current month price action looking similar to 2014 and yesterday confirmed the initial interpretation as accurate. The game is not over yet and the rhyming that was discussed, has yet to finish. Yesterday was just the first phase of the correction if it is to be accurately compared to the collapse in 2014. Look at the Weekly chart from the Weekly section and noticed where prices returned to at the completion of the collapse– 2025 has a ways to go yet.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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First Indications Rhyming with 2014

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Not expecting the Jan high to be surpassed by the Feb high was using history to our benefit. Go into the recent history in the Weekly section — last week’s events have only happened a handful of times and the results are similar (especially in the last 12 years). Sure to the concepts of the Weekly writing — prices opened significantly lower on Sunday night. Won’t be claiming technical victory (got burned in the phases of the 2014 collapse) but will be watching the price movements closely this week.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.16-$4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,