Category: Daily Call

Last week provided a great opportunity to learn about gaps as I discussed in the Weekly Section on Wednesday… It is important to realize that the gap closes, but it is critical that the market confirm that by a daily close beyond and even more important, from an enforcement standpoint, to have a weekly close beyond the gap. Neither occurred last week and we witnessed the market reject the gap closing as the week went on. I want to thank the folks who sent me emails regarding the accuracy of the Weekly update and hope it was a profitable event.

Added to the discussion about the market going into expiration and how the market looks like from a technical standpoint in the Weekly section and will not restate what is already written. Prices have three days left of the November contract and there is still 21,000 contracts open (historically a little high) so there may be some additional volatility. My interpretation of the market remains the same as stated in the Weekly last week– expect the Dec contract to weaken toward the gap area ($3.066) in the coming week. Where Nov goes is anyone’s guess- it may chase Dec but I have to believe there are some option positions around $3.00 that may or may not have been closed last week, ensuring the potential volatility.

The market continued higher during the trade day only to weaken towards the end and close the day at the low side of the gap range. Mentioned earlier in the week, play the range and keep the stops tight. Need to see how this plays out today– may make several technical event today.

Major Support: $2.983, $2.476-$2.446, $2.392,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support:$2.79, $2.638, $2.508, $2.339
Major Resistance: $3.047-$3.053, $3.101, $3.207

Price surprised me as they closed the gap going back to 2019 that sets up a new world (see Weekly section). Key to remember that the market did not close the session above the gap (technical technicality) and therefore has to be questioned. Seems like a good area to sell with stops just above as a low risk area if you are so inclined, but be careful with Dec as it showed some strength but did not join Nov in a new high which brings a certain amount of doubt to the whole daily move.

Major Support: $2.476-$2.446, $2.392,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support:$2.79, $2.638, $2.508, $2.339
Major Resistance: $3.047-$3.053, $3.101, $3.207

Have not discussed the gap that exists to the upside ($2.983-$3.047) that remains in the Daily chart from Jan ’19, because there as not the momentum for a serious challenge. Yesterday gave me pause for thought as a down day had a serious daily reversal. After opening and trading lower on the open, the market reversed and closed up on the day. Volume was a little higher than recent but the activity at the end of the day caught my attention. Respect the range the market has held but keep the stops close.

Major Support: $2.476-$2.446, $2.392,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support:$2.79, $2.618, $2.508, $2.339
Major Resistance: $2.908-$2.928,$2.973-$3.00, $3.047

Prices continued lower from the end of Friday on the open Sunday night. There seems to be a mini-range developed between $2.61 and $2.85 for the last few days. Would play that range with stops just on the other side depending on which way you are playing. Went into expectations of the next few days leading into expiration, in the Weekly area. The differed winter contracts continue to show buying regardless (to a degree) of the prompt action.

Major Support: $2.476-$2.446, $2.392,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support: $2.618, $2.508, $2.339
Major Resistance: $2.789-$2.801,$2.908-$2.928,$2.973-$3.00

The late night declines from Tuesday held all day which signals the weakness to the run early in the week. Prices now sit in the middle of the range developed after the Nov took over as prompt. Do you feel lucky? I have no idea what the storage report will look like – but the market has shown me no substantial support for the short covering rally (early in the week) extending into the future therefore I do not think the declines for the Nov are not over yet.

Major Support: $2.454, $2.392,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support: $2.618, $2.508, $2.339
Major Resistance: $2.789-$2.801,$2.908-$2.928,$2.973-$3.00

Had written the Daily after the close and was going to discuss an additional failure of prices at well defined resistance during the trade only to see a collapse of prices after the close when the market reopened. I can only suggest that whatever fundamental data hit the market on Sunday, was reversed late yesterday. It will be interesting to watch how the trade behaves when it has full market participation, the declines could continue to last Friday’s low $2.618 or does it find support near term.

Major Support: $2.454, $2.392,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support: $2.618, $2.508, $2.339
Major Resistance: $2.789-$2.801,$2.908-$2.928,$2.973-$3.002

Prices exploded in lighter trade on Sunday night, breaking above the near term resistance. Now the question is, do prices close some of the substantial gap that exists in the charts? Should it try, there may be low risk buying opportunities available. See the Weekly commentary for longer term impacts from the recent gains. This rally on Sunday may provide some opportunity for SHORT TERM SHORTs– but can’t stress the need for stops.

Major Support: $2.454, $2.392,$2.258-$2.253, $2.219
Minor Support: $2.74, $2.339
Major Resistance: $2.743, $2.789-$2.801,$2.908-$2.928,$2.973-$3.002