Category: Daily Call

Mentioned yesterday that at the open on Tuesday afternoon some folks sold out of positions on added to positions on the open that sent the price to $1.674 before buyers showed up. From there prices reversed again during the day, shoeing gains. Truly confused, as to the directional bias its anyone’s guess. Middle of the recent rage, radical daily trade and no established bias, hang tough. Today we get some fundamental data that may indicate some bias but in this market — play the patient range.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Not sure what news hit the market when it re-opened yesterday at 6 p.m. EDT – but it sent prices through support and created a lower low this week only to rebound at the time of this writing. Either somebody had to get out of length (immediately- say margin call) or somebody is trying to play with prices, which I remember back 15-20 years ago, by trying to influence a trend when participation was light. Regardless, it is still trading in the recent range– so play accordingly.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

As discussed in yesterday’s Call, the market extended the declines from last week only to find buyers that propelled another reversal. It seems to be evident that declines in the July contract will find buyers at consistent levels. My expectations were for the prompt to trade below the lows of last week and was alarmed when the rally occurred. What does it mean– the range is intact and the market is unable to break below or above. Look at the upcoming convergence of the trend lines– something is bound to happen.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Closing the week below the trend line from the May lows, suggest that trade will be opening the week lower when trade resumes. this week. …but also note the 50 – day SMA just below), that prompt gas will be offered lower when trading resumes likely testing and breaking the 50 day SMA. There is significant definable continuation support below the 50 day and the seasonal tendencies during the second and third weeks of June (see Website Longer term) suggests that weakness is likely to be limited. Loosing a dime would keep prices in the same recent range.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Another quiet day with the range staying with in he previous day’s range as the market continues to consolidate. With tomorrow being the end of week, don’t expect any major moves. Seems like the bias is going to shift based upon production (LNG export) news or the forecasts for summer so this could become very interesting as we head into late June. Still near the middle of the long term range (for three months) play accordingly.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Another low volatility day with tight range and a slight increase in price. Does not look like the market is dedicated to a directional bias and is comfortable in the range that has held for three months. Wish there was some technical indicator that would give us a clue but all I can see is what I have discussed in the long term section of the web site for the last four weeks.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

Quiet day in the gas market as prices stayed within the range of Monday’s trade and spent the day consolidating. Due to this inactivity, comments have not changed. Play the range and we are pretty much in the middle– yee haw.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

History has a tendency to repeat itself and I have discussed the history for early June trade to weaken with the July as prompt. That happened again yesterday as price tried to break below last Friday’s low for July gas only to find buying once again. Seems like a fair amount of struggle is going on between the early morning camp which likes to send price down to support (speculation between 5 and 7 am CDT) followed by the physical delivery folks (between 7 and 9 am CDT). Not sure whats going on there but it is interesting to trade around. Again, the market is in a range trade environment for now and trade it accordingly.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.82, $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.90, $1.974, $2.019- $2.029
Minor Resistance: $1.864-$1.896

After trading down and setting a new low for the July contract early in the trade day, consolidated the declines for a while before prices found buyers and rallied through the remainder of the day. This left prices with a gain for the day. Go into some interesting trends for prices on the web site and encourage all to find 15 minutes to review. As for the daily prices, the reversal on Friday was quite impressive (from preliminary data from the CME) with the movement accompanied by highest volume of the week and gains in open interest.

For the last ten trade days, the market has traded in the range between $1.68 and $1.98 after exploding up to $2.16 before capitulating down to $1.595. Even with the expansion of the range some interesting trends for prices are explained on the web site and encourage all to find 15 minutes to review. With the close on Friday, prices now sit in the middle of the narrow ten day range. Pick your poison.

Spot July Contract

Prices continued the historical trend of declining in early July prompt trade but stopped at trend line support and lows established in March. If that support breaks- then expect trade to decline another dime. The market remains in the range but is starting to attack the premiums of the differed summer contracts, staying with in the range. That is a trading opportunity near term.