Author: Willis Bennett

Declines Occur With Lower Volume

Weekly Continuous

After trading just briefly back above the June high ($2.839, the previous week’s high was $2.863) September gas reversed lower, again failing to close above the zone of resistance between the June and July highs with an increase in open interest. That failure brought a decline further than anticipated but with a substantial decrease in volume. The target suggested last week was $2.60ish but that zone of defined support did not limit September’s fall as the prompt traded to a low of $2.524 before recovering to close at $2.551. Notably, the close was well above the cluster of weekly lows that traded between the end of June and the beginning of August (+/- $2.45 –$2.49) but also below last week’s low. A lower close below the previous week’s low infers additional weakness coming.

Despite modest price erosion of near term gas over the last two weeks, September closed $.026 lower than two weeks ago, but the strips are higher with winter $.136 over the last ten trading days, one – year $.092 higher. Perhaps that’s how the Q3 seasonal pressure plays out this year. The strips are much closer to earlier highs. Prompt gas traded that Q2 high on 06/28, the high daily close of the winter ’23 – ’24 was $3.613, Friday’s close was $3.612. The high daily close of the continuation one – year during the closing days of June was $3.363, Friday’s close $3.307. Maybe my analysis is way off base but seems to me those differences suggest that sponsorship is building for deferred/distant deferred contract months.

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Consolidation With In the Range

Daily Continuous

The storage report provided little or bias impact so prices spent most of the day consolidating in a tight range. As suggested a few weeks ago — this may be as exciting a trade as Natty will give us for a while.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Declines Extend

Daily Continuous

In the Weekly section on Sunday — I expected a decline to be retesting lows around $2.69 — well I missed that decline by more than $.10. Now what – perhaps additional declines to $2.47 may occur but they are likely to be brief. My expectations are that the low end of the new range should be completed (near term)– from which prices will rally back to test resistance.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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OK – Support Zones Tested

Daily Continuous

What can I say — my expectations were a day early and I got my test for support a day later than when I suspected. Regardless, the market is defining the upcoming range that it will likely trade within during the next couple of weeks.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.74, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Working Through the Kinks

Daily Continuous

Prices did not find the weakness I was looking for yesterday — though there was a slight decline but not achieving what I was expecting. They did find a solid bid and ran that into the close and in the late market. Maybe establishing the low end of the new range will take some time in order to work through some support zones. Currently, prices seem to want to test the high end of the range per my Weekly section yesterday.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.74, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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A New Range Likely to Develop

Daily Continuous

With last week’s bias change (see Weekly section for details), it is likely that the market will try and redefine a new near term range for the September contract between $2.67-$3.01. Would trade this range accordingly for the upcoming week or so. Remember that the Labor Day weekend is historically a weak period for prices (either before or just after) so adjust expectations accordingly. Several of you have asked about the upcoming winter prices and hedging ideas – while I don’t publish them in the web site — I may provide some analysis about the winter strip later in the week.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.74, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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A Defining Week

Weekly Continuation

The market has prompt gas construct and remain confined within a tight trading range about a third as wide as the range constructed between the range traded during calendar March for a while. The expectations were that prompt September would remain within that range for the duration of its tenure. Then there were four straight weekly lows between$2.457 and $2.492 (and others in the neighborhood), and the tendency of September gas to trade the low of its tenure in early August, fed the bias is that prompt gas is winding up for a run later into the quarter. Well I did not see was the likelihood of a short covering event the likes of which I can’t recently recall.

Open interest (the total of contracts open in the market) has been falling since a peak of 1,389,864 on June 6th (4 days after the June low at $2.136). As written here many times, when open interest falls while price increases the presumption is that participants buying contracts to offset those previously sold short is a significant contributor to an increasing bid. Since that June low prompt gas had traded as high as $2.839 (the June Q2 high) as the liquidation of open interest remained a more or less orderly process while the weekly closing trading range between +/- $2.47 and $2.80 was constructed. That ended this past week.

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On Cue

Daily Continuous

My discussion and expectations were accurate, as prices retraced the previous gains and tested (closed) within the area of resistance that had held the market gains for last few months. Key question remains does the new support zone (old resistance) hold the declines like it held the gains. My best guess is the the market will be forming a new range with the new support zone being defined in the near term.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.74, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Breakout

Daily Continuous

A little surprised that the break out to the highs from Feb occurred this early in the September prompt (was expecting it after Labor Day) but perhaps that timing will provide the next leg in the current run. Nevertheless, yesterday provided the proof of what has been suggested here for a couple of months – that a series of higher highs and higher lows, is signalling the gradual demise of the bear market in 2023. What is next — storage report will be interesting to watch what occurs after the gains of yesterday — but my expectation is a retracement of the gains during the trade and a test of support provided by the old range.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.836-$2.81, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

This Week It Is the High End

Daily Continuous

Last week the market tested the low end of the range and closed the day just off the lows– this week prices are testing the high end of the range and close yesterday just off the highs. Explained last week that the price action was great for the traders and it continues to be. My only concern is when does the high end break out or when does the low end break down. For now .. it is the potential break out to higher prices.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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