Middle of the Range

Daily Continuation

Just wallowing in the middle of the recent range, getting set up for the next bearish storage report. Here is a tip– it is going to expand the surplus over the 5-year average. Does anyone think different in the industry? Hey bears — grow some love for declines (would of used a different reference— but unprofessional).

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Boring

Daily Continuous

Hate to say it but the run went just short of a key resistance — failed and now we are in boring zone.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Headed North

Daily Continuous

Looks like prices want to test resistance after failing at extending below the support zone. A key for the move will be the 50 day SMA just over $2.32 as the market has only closed over that closely watch trend line once since last Dec.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Range / Consolidation Continues

Weekly Continuation

Not a significant change in perspective from last week when I wrote the following… When trade remains within the range traded during a previous period (whether days, weeks, or months) important support and resistance has been defined (as it has over the last few weeks, the longer the period the more important those levels are.  As mentioned previously, violation of either of the new extremes is usually a trigger for influential traders (speculative hedge funds) who have been and remain significantly net short the gas market. Trade through the April high (this week’s first close over the continuation 10 – week SMA as well as the 50 – day) since the week ending 12/16/22, suggests is the far more likely of the near term directional outcomes.

Last week the trade expanded the June lows into the continuation lows of previous periods before finding support. Don’t have a lot to add from a technical side other than it remains in the range environment and should be traded accordingly.

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Prices Down to April Support

Daily Continuation

Prices extended lower re-testing the lows from April on the continuation chart. Questions remain about a lower extension below $2.00 or a rebound up to late April highs.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Important Period for Near Term Prices

Daily Continuation

Good to see the declines continue to test last month’s lows and now the question remains what about $2.00. Been here twice before and further declines will be interesting to watch. Folks in the press attribute the declines to production and recession fears. Not sure about the latter but according to the EIA report yesterday — Dry gas production continues to be strong. Recession issues will be offset by the power demand that was sighted in the Weekly Summary of the Storage report yesterday. We are at the low end of the range– trade accordingly.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Test Continues — Small Bounce Off of Lows

Daily Continuation

The movement of late is now testing the the lows and giving up the premium afforded the June contract during last months declines. It was interesting to watch the bounce off of $2.11 and prices firmed through the close. This will continue to get interesting as prices are now going to deal with another bearish storage report.Play the low end of the range.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Decline Continued

Daily Continuation

As discussed yesterday, wanted to see the results of a deeper test of support and started to gain a concept of the result as prices bounce slightly off the daily lows. Believe the summer range for price support is being established until the summer forecasts get firmer. There is no reason for the shorts to panic and no reason for them to capture profits only the next month or so will determine as the forecasts provide guidance.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Further Declines Signal Additional Consolidation

Daily Continuation

Prices declined yesterday but did not break below the lows from the June lows at May expiration. Expect further tests of support, declining into the lows of June during April. From there we will get a better sense of what is coming.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Rally Adjusts Perspective (for now)

Weekly Continuation

June fell back to test April’s final day high $2.274) before rallying through the resistance that had limited prompt gas last week and before May’s decline in expiration.  June’s recovery left it with the highest close since March 10th and notably over the continuation 10 – week SMA, for the first time since the week of the December high.  The continuation chart shows a constructive “outside” week with a close above last week’s high.  Despite the relative show of strength after May was off the board June failed just short of the high that it traded a week ago ($2.529 vs$2.543) and for a second week at resistance bracketing its February low ($2.468).  June ended the week just about where it began ($2.410 vs $2.395) but did manage a third straight higher close…the first back to back to back higher weekly closes since the first three Fridays of last July.  The zone of resistance between $2.468 – $2.543 and June’s 10 – week (currently $2.604 and declining) is likely to be a formidable barrier to extending the rally particularly given that volume fell again this week.

When trade remains within the range traded during a previous period (whether days, weeks, or months) important support and resistance has been defined (as it has over the last few weeks, the longer the period the more important those levels are.  As mentioned previously, violation of either of the new extremes is usually a trigger for influential traders (speculative hedge funds) who have been and remain significantly net short the gas market. Trade through the April high (this week’s first close over the continuation 10 – week SMA as well as the 50 – day) since the week ending 12/16/22, suggests is the far more likely of the near term directional outcomes. This will likely extend the rally toward the March recovery high ($2.674, 03/14).

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