So Close — But a Rally At The End

Daily Continuous

Price action was so close to closing below $2.00 but failed on the day but who knows with tomorrow. A slight gain at the end of the trading day kept prices above that level for now– the bears are scavengers so expect additional declines.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.38, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Took An Extra Day But Results Expected

Daily Continuous

The declines discussed on Monday took an extra day to occur but sure enough — just in time for storage the market is back at support with the report looming. Discussed the fact that there is little or nothing that makes current market bullish in the Weekly– so lets see how low do we go this time.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.38, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Surprise Suprise

Daily Continuous

Didn’t see that coming as expectations were for additional weakness on the start of this week. If you are bull settle down — we have seen this behavior on a Monday before on see the declines shortly there after. If you are a bear — got to love $.15 – $.20 more for the declines back to $2.00.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.41, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Price Action Getting Ugly

Weekly Continuous

On Good Friday (I forgot no trading) I wrote the following….Prices dropped below $2.00 and suggested closing below that important area but found some minimal support. A close below that level sill suggest additional declines will be coming. Today will provide some important indications for the May contract and bias objectives going into the historically strong summer (power demand) season. Well — there was no trading on Friday and the market remains at the Thursday close.

There are no technical indications of a positive bias entering or even attempting to enter this market (that in itself leaves me with a positive bias). While total volume has on balanced declined since mid – February, particularly since the March high, average daily volume increased significantly during a period that it typically does not (volume is historically subdued during a shortened week, this past week Thursday was the highest volume day since the 03/21 upside reversal day). Increasing volume as price falls is technically negative.

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My Bad –Happy Easter

Daily Continuation

I wrote this last Thursday, forgetting that the gas market was closed for Good Friday — but the comments remain in affect.

Prices dropped below $2.00 and suggested closing below that important area but found some minimal support. A close below that level sill suggest additional declines will be coming. Today will provide some important indications for the May contract and bias objectives going into the historically strong summer (power demand) season. We shall see. For me still in the range and at the low end.

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Prices Almost Close Below Support

Daily Continuous

Prices dropped below $2.00 and suggested closing below that important area but found some minimal support. A close below that level sill suggest additional declines will be coming. Today will provide some important indications for the May contract and bias objectives going into the historically strong summer (power demand) season. We shall see. For me still in the range and at the low end.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Snoozing Along

Daily Continuation

Wish I could have some enlightening analysis — Not happening

Major Support: $2.127-$2.095, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Quietest Daily Range in A Long Time

Daily Continuous

As much as I would love to thrill you with some startling and creative technical interpretation of the price action– after yesterday — I am concerned whether you will continue to log in. Nothing more to add to the last few installments of the Daily but play the range with patience and stop losses.

Major Support: $2.127-$2.095, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Another Test of $2.00

Daily Continuation

Starting Sunday night, it was clear prices were going to test the $2.00 area and that is what happened. Finding limited support — not sure how far the run goes off of the test — continue the range trade if you are patient enough.

Major Support: $2.127-$2.095, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Weak Expiration — Leaves Bears Growling

Daily Continuation

Prices start off Sunday night weaker, gaping lower and starting to test the $2.00 zone quickly as the May contract takes over as prompt. Trading to a low, rallying and then returning to that prior low and holding, is the primary method of natural gas defining a longer term low. This week prompt gas undercut the first low but failed to follow through to the downside re-defining support as a zone between two monthly lows, ($1.944 – $1.967). Not nearly enough time has passed to draw a definitive conclusion, but new prompt May ended Friday above the continuation 10 – day SMA for the first time since the failure of the rally from the February low, thatvery short – term moving average served as declining resistance at multiple daily highs since prompt April first closed beneath it on March 8th.

Major Support: $2.127-$2.095, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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