Author: Willis Bennett

Seen This Before

Daily Continuous

Been and seen this Monday behavior before only to spend the next two days pounding the gains going into the storage release. Is this run different?– only because it set a new recent high and came close to the 50 Day SMA which has not been sniffed since December. Time will tell if the rally can break above the commonly watched level.

Major Support:$2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.36, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Short Covering Rally at the End

Daily Continuation

After challenging the low, prices seemed to just run out of sellers and showed a solid short covering rally at during the day and at the end. They opened a little stronger last night but no major move as the declines may have hit a vacuum last week but are unlikely over. Perhaps they challenge the high side of the recent range ($2.24-$2.38) before starting additional declines.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.36, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Sellers Running Thin?

Weekly Continuous

Despite an bearish outside week reversal to the downside, selling sufficient to drive the prompt through the lower extreme of the narrow zone did not materialize. The the failure to extend the decline (the low was $1.946) toward the September ’20 low ($1.795) triggered a short covering rally that left May $.103 higher for the week.  That recovery from a test of such obvious and critical, support is a pretty good indication that at least for the near term May may start to look like it is running out of sellers. Technical improvement was also evidenced by the highest volume week since last since last September. Mentioning in previous analysis that weekly volume has been on balance declining since just prior to the February low and suggesting that selling pressure has been starting to dissipate. In addition, total open interest declined 38,702 contracts–the largest one week decline in the total of contracts outstanding since the beginning of the collapse from the August high.

Last week does not “announce” a trend change but rather a potential of a shift. This market’s declines are not “over” and buying dips (on a limited scale) may turn out profitable over time. If prompt gas is able to remain “inside” the March extremes during calendar April and end the calendar month higher than it began ($2.085-which stands to be possible given a boost by June’s current premium over May ($2.305 v$2.114), aggressive sellers may start to re-evaluate their beliefs.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.36, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

So Close — But a Rally At The End

Daily Continuous

Price action was so close to closing below $2.00 but failed on the day but who knows with tomorrow. A slight gain at the end of the trading day kept prices above that level for now– the bears are scavengers so expect additional declines.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.38, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Took An Extra Day But Results Expected

Daily Continuous

The declines discussed on Monday took an extra day to occur but sure enough — just in time for storage the market is back at support with the report looming. Discussed the fact that there is little or nothing that makes current market bullish in the Weekly– so lets see how low do we go this time.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.38, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Surprise Suprise

Daily Continuous

Didn’t see that coming as expectations were for additional weakness on the start of this week. If you are bull settle down — we have seen this behavior on a Monday before on see the declines shortly there after. If you are a bear — got to love $.15 – $.20 more for the declines back to $2.00.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.41, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Price Action Getting Ugly

Weekly Continuous

On Good Friday (I forgot no trading) I wrote the following….Prices dropped below $2.00 and suggested closing below that important area but found some minimal support. A close below that level sill suggest additional declines will be coming. Today will provide some important indications for the May contract and bias objectives going into the historically strong summer (power demand) season. Well — there was no trading on Friday and the market remains at the Thursday close.

There are no technical indications of a positive bias entering or even attempting to enter this market (that in itself leaves me with a positive bias). While total volume has on balanced declined since mid – February, particularly since the March high, average daily volume increased significantly during a period that it typically does not (volume is historically subdued during a shortened week, this past week Thursday was the highest volume day since the 03/21 upside reversal day). Increasing volume as price falls is technically negative.

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My Bad –Happy Easter

Daily Continuation

I wrote this last Thursday, forgetting that the gas market was closed for Good Friday — but the comments remain in affect.

Prices dropped below $2.00 and suggested closing below that important area but found some minimal support. A close below that level sill suggest additional declines will be coming. Today will provide some important indications for the May contract and bias objectives going into the historically strong summer (power demand) season. We shall see. For me still in the range and at the low end.

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Prices Almost Close Below Support

Daily Continuous

Prices dropped below $2.00 and suggested closing below that important area but found some minimal support. A close below that level sill suggest additional declines will be coming. Today will provide some important indications for the May contract and bias objectives going into the historically strong summer (power demand) season. We shall see. For me still in the range and at the low end.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.12-$2.184, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Snoozing Along

Daily Continuation

Wish I could have some enlightening analysis — Not happening

Major Support: $2.127-$2.095, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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