Author: Willis Bennett

Good Effort But No Cigar

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The bulls tried to set up for a break out above $3.00 only to fail after the data release. Not sure how the data was interpreted as bearish to kill the gains but that fundamental information is over my pay grade. The key from my perspective is the market did not “collapse” but rather held the recent range. Take that as additional confirmation that the bias has changed. Play the suggested ranges from earlier in the week.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.00, $3.16

Solid Range Developing

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A higher high that took prices to test the $3.00 only to fail on the first test. That outcome should not be surprising as prices will continue to test the resistance zone. The storage report may bring additional volatility this week.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.00, $3.16

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Nothing Different

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Nothing to add or subtract from yesterday’s comments as the market traded within the same (narrower) range. Keep the same thoughts for establishing or profiting as yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$3.00, $3.16

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Tight Consolidation Day

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Trying to set a base for the next step higher (should it be the result) prices paused and “consolidated” the recent gains (from expiration or what ever) and now seem to be in a consolidation process. From here, would suggest buying dips on the declines and selling over the $3.10 zone.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Bias Change But Hang Tight

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Well that was different. October rallied to trade the high of its tenure as prompt on the same day it went to settlement, the first expiration month this year to do so (actually, the first month since July ’23). As discussed previously, eight expiring monthly contracts have traded their low during the days of the expiration process. While October faded $.105 from its expiration day high, $2.585 was the highest settlement value since July settled at $2.628 (after falling from the June Q2 high at $3.159), was $.151 higher than last week’s close and $.655 higher than September.

The new prompt November contract was awarded $.168 premium over October settlement (vs $.285 at last week’s close) began by narrowing the “expiration” gap to $.030 ($2.690 – $2.720), but quickly followed through to the upside. On Friday, November extended the rally to trade as high as $2.928 and was bid to a slightly higher high in aftermarket trading ($2.932) much like October was last week. Although Friday’s volume was less than either Wednesday or Thursday, the new prompt traded a technically positive “outside” day reversal higher and closed at the highest price since June 18th (July 8th for the November contract).

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New Bias Needs to Create New Range

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The market seems to be changing it’s bias after the expiration last week. Would treat this change with caution until there is solid confirmation of the next and new range.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support :$2.62, $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$3.00, $3.16

Jury Is Out

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While prices were up and down during yesterday’s expiration, I am going to state that the expiration process was well supported, thereby breaking the trend of the previous expiration’s of 2024 which were all well offered during the process. What does this mean?—The bearish bias (all through this year) is starting to take some hits. The first target is the gap remaining from the premium awarded the Nov contract (even though some of that gap was closed during yesterday’s decline). This will be the first test of a confirmation of a bullish bias change.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $2.507-$2.44, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.618, $3.00, $3.16

November Maintains $.20 Premium

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Today is expiration and the market has not shown a weakness yet, but the verdict is not yet defined. I continue to reflect on what was identified from the trends of ’24 and will expect some weakness.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Some Firming

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Price action declined slightly but did not represent the weakness of the previous ’24 contracts– The jury is still out per my Daily yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Next Three Days Are Key

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Mentioned in the Weekly section: … eight contract months that have gone to settlement so far in ’24 three have traded pre expiration highs on or after the 22nd. May fell hard during its last three days, August for five straight days the others had variations of weakness and timing, Once it became evident that expiring contracts were being “amply offered”…five of the eight have traded contract lows on the day they went to settlement. Have mentioned it before that, a change in that pattern would indicate a change in the character of the gas market. This week we will find out whether that change has occurred.

How do you say the rubber will be meeting the road this week. Be interesting to watch after the gains of yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16