Author: Willis Bennett

Nothing To Add

Daily Continuous

Can not add to the previous three Daily’s nor the Weekly on Monday.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

As Expected

Daily Continuous

Not much to add from the last few week as the market seems to be comfortable with the range that the trade has developed. Prices going nowhere slowly– this market needs a fundamental jolt — either way.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

Rambling Through the Range

Weekly Continuous

The new prompt opened higher and immediately rallied to test resistance which was contrary to my expectations coming into the week. From the post – Memorial Day low at $3.098 prompt gas has traded 23.2% higher…exceeding the five, ten and twenty years averages for early June rallies by a couple of percentage points. The anniversary of last year’s June high is on the 11th. It would not be surprising if July stretches the rally a bit during the coming week but as detailed when then prompt June was testing the same zone last month, resistance to a significant extension of the rally is strong. The calendar May high was $3.840. In six of the last ten years (a mixed bag) prompt July has traded through the May high but has done so in each of the last four years. In two of those four July’s it traded the June high of the 8th and on the 11th (’22 & ’24). In the other two the prompt corrected from highs on the 15th and 20th before rallying into expiration. July has not traded through the May high, yet, but if it does and closes there, and above of its 50 – day SMA expect a test of resistance between $4.075 and $4.120.

On a continuation basis, since the high volume daily reversal on 04/09, prompt gas has constructed a trading range just about one dollar wide (between $2.86 – $2.87 (the low daily close has been $2.930) and $3.83 – $3.840 (the high daily close was $3.816 on that 04/09 reversal day). The upper boundary of that range roughly corresponds with the lower boundary of a range constructed between mid – February and early April. The low daily close during that period was $3.834. In the event of a “breakout” by prompt July through the resistance described earlier, the lower boundary of the previous more elevated range will provide substantial resistance. Because of the historical consistency of a mid – June high there is no suggestion for chasing a potential breakout higher.

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Ranging Along — Now Near Resistance

Daily Continuous

Prices started Sunday night a little weaker bu still with in the recent range. The market will need to confirm the recent bullish bias (slightly) this week and would wait to look at buying the bias until confirmed (see Weekly section).

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.46, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

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Bearish Storage Report

Daily Continuous

The market got a bearish storage release, sending prices down, but didn’t pressure the low side of the range before it got a footing and held the declines. Still in the range.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.46, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

Still Working the High End of Range

Daily Continuous

Can’t add anything that has not been mentioned here or in the Weekly section on Monday. Nothing has prompted prices to test the high levels from May at $3.83 but by the same token nothing has made trade interested in selling the recent gains. Perhaps the storage release will provide more interest in driving short term bias.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

Same Range

Daily Continuous

Spoke earlier this week about the actions I would recommend considering the trading range we are enjoying. Prices are now starting to challenge the resistance levels and is the area where action (discussed earlier) may be promoted.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.46, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

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Sunday Starting Stronger

Daily Continuous

Discuss expectations for prices this week in the Weekly Section, working from the historical standpoint– will just add that the Sunday night trade showed a little strength which may or may not continue through the trade day. Trading for me is selling premium as prices trade to resistance and selling premium if prices trade to test support. Seems simple but in a range market (last few months) it has provided revenue.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.46, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

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New Month Same Range

Weekly Continuous

After holding support at the continuation 200 – day when trading resumed after Memorial Day, June tried to rally ($3.511), but could not duplicate the strength into settlement of its two immediate predecessors. June’s last trading day was the opposite of the close of trading for April and May. Expiring June was hammered as it went to settlement, falling from that $3.511 high to $3.152, before settling at $3.204 still $.034 higher than May (which rallied .311 on its last trading day to find that level). Consecutive settlements at +/- the same price level suggests pretty good demand between +/- $3.15 – $3.21…which technical types like myself will call support. Supply, which technical types like to call resistance, has been by the settlement values of March and April, $3.861 – $3.906, hence the range I have been discussing for the last three months.

A week ago, July was bid $.391 premium to soon to expire June, a historically high premium for the mid – summer month. At June settlement that premium was reduced to $.353 but was still the highest in recent years. The last couple of times that a significantly greater premium was awarded to the prompt – in – waiting, the new prompt took off to the upside, it was suggested here that this may not happen. Plus, considering that the low level of open interest, upside vulnerability was may remain a concern.

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Premium Gone

Daily Continuous

Discussed earlier in the Weekly Section that the premium afforded to the July contract would be tested after expiration and the price action closed the gap from the expiration range and the July contract in yesterday’s action. The July contract is now in the range from the June contract. Continue the range trade.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.26-$3.305, $3.46, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501,

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