Author: Willis Bennett

First things first– just a reminder that the Daily will continue free until May 1, 2020 at which time you will need to be a subscriber– please see the website for details.

I wanted to expand on the website Weekly published yesterday, as a couple of you contacted me regarding the significant gains in the Winter strip as compared to the prompt May. I would not advise chasing the winter and the chart above shows why. The strip is over bought and currently in the extreme zone for momentum indicators. It will need to back and fill and test the breakout zone around $2.70 so patience is required. It is becoming clear (with today’s extension) that something is garnering serious support for winter and all of 2021 for that matter. Not immersing myself in fundamentals I am limited as to an opinion but I do read that with the destruction of oil prices and production- some of the associated gas may become an issue. As mentioned– I have no clue– but something is clearly driving interests and the prompt May has nothing to do with it. In fact it remains in the middle of the range discussed yesterday.

Prices closed the shortened trade week with a gain, finishing the week above the highs from the previous week. That is a small element that the bulls can hang their hats on. What is becoming more and more an issue is the solid gains made by the differed contracts (check the abbreviated long term section on the web site). The market, though sending changing bias signals, remains in a range trade environment and the close last week was nearly in the middle of the range ($1.51-$2.00). In the middle of a range like this (coupled with the lack of volatility) I prefer bias bets to be made with options.

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555–$1.519, $1.481

Minor Support : $1.731, $1.833, $1.915
Major Resistance:$1.883, $1.993, $2.029, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437,
Minor Resistance: $1.833, $1.915

All the momentum indications showed a test of resistance but that was not a solid test as prices only got within $08 of the key zone. It was interesting that prices fell to the 50 day SMA and found a bid– but I am more interested in the days ahead, as it may provide a key for the direction near term. Let me take this opportunity to wish all of you the prayers and comfort from the spiritual week. There will not be a publication on Good Friday.

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555–$1.519, $1.481
Major Resistance:$1.883, $1.993, $2.029, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437,
Minor Resistance: $1.833, $1.915

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555–$1.519, $1.481

Minor Support: $1.767-$1.78, $1.833
Major Resistance:$1.883, $1.993, $2.029, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437,
Minor Resistance:

Price broke beyond minor resistance yesterday and are now poised to test the resistance area that has held prices since late January. This will be the third test, which corresponds to the third test of support last week, as prices traded to the lows. As you are aware, I have been a range trader this year between $2.00-$$1.60 and will continue this behavior on this test of resistance. With that said, I am not likely to short the price action on the test as I have twice before. Lets see what happens.

For the third consecutive week prices traded below the key area at $1.61 set a low between $1.519-$1.55 only to give up the losses by the close of the week. Last week, the bids took the prices to the high of the day as the market closed. Extending the declines seems to be exhausting for the bears as last week, the bears could just manage the low at $1.521 before the bids hit the action. Have some interesting comments on the full website that is now up and rolling — please take a moment to review as the web is free for the remainder of the month before it becomes a pay site in May (Daily will no longer be free). While opinions and interpretations may be different, I am more interested in comments about the site.

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555–$1.519, $1.481
Major Resistance:$1.883, $1.993, $2.029, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437,
Minor Resistance: $1.767-$1.78, $1.833

That was a good test of support and now it is time to witness either a breakdown or a run to resistance. Sorry about not providing some clever insight as to the expected breakdown or break out but this type of consolidation trade is very common for nat gas and may continue for weeks. One event is guaranteed is there will be an end to this pattern — just a matter of when and direction.

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555, $1.481
Major Resistance: $1.99, $2.029, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52,
Minor Resistance: $1.728, $1.806, $1.883,

Prices continued to decline and gave a weak test of support with the lows. From there, prices rebounded slightly. Not sure if that was a full test of the support zones between $1.555-$1.519, as there may be a test today on the storage report. Play the range.

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555, $1.481
Major Resistance: $1.99, $2.029, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52,
Minor Resistance: $1.728, $1.806, $1.883,

What the market gained was taken away yesterday. Here we it middle of the short term range and nowhere to go based on fundamentals. Speaking of which, would love the hear of comparisons for receipt point nominations for April vs March– any of you folks that can clue me in to the variance I would be thrilled. Continue to play the range – right now — nowhere to go and nowhere to hide.

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555, $1.481
Major Resistance: $1.99, $2.029, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52,
Minor Resistance: $1.728, $1.806, $1.883,

Prices started the month with some limited strength, but I will be more interested in how the nominations and deliveries coordinate with the month change and season change. For now, continue the range trade between $1.51-$2.00 and we seem to be in the middle currently.

Major Support: $1.611, $1.555, $1.481
Major Resistance: $1.99, $2.029, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52,
Minor Resistance: $1.728, $1.806, $1.883,