Author: Willis Bennett

Not a fundamental based trader like most of you — but I have to ask — With all the heat in the next 30 days, would that not be supportive to prices yet they are down challenging June’s lows. Something is not right here. I understand LNG is off (has been for weeks), production is gaining (you thing they are forward selling strips- will have to check), but the weather guys are saying demand is big this July and August. Oh well, what do I care play the range and we seem to be headed to the low end.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

That storage release provided little directional bias to an already directionless market. The case can be made for the market to roam in this tight range for a while which infers selling premium in the option world. Keep a tight eye on the technical levels if this is your strategy and don’t hesitate to cover.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.722
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

If you are still awake — you will notice that gas found a slight bid going into the storage report, but still is in the middle of the summer range. Technically, this market is setting itself up for a break out or down that is likely to be substantial. Currently, the wise trade is to be patient and sell premium in the options market but the break out or down could put you at substantial risk, so positioning has to be nimble.

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For the second consecutive week, prices attempted to break below $1.70 after lifting above that area around July 4th. That area has held support on occasions since late March, but has not provided this kind of leadership in the past as prices have managed to blow through this area several times. Whatever the reason, discussed in the long term section of the web that prices have been developing a “step” process the last couple of weeks with the range trade and nothing yet has diverted my attention from that analysis.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.722
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Whatever was driving some of the gains last week, I guess there was a reconsideration this week. Below average (daily of the last 11 days) volume drove prices down and are now setting up a test of support. It is interesting that as the prompt declines this month, the Dec contract remains well above recent lows.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.722
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896

Interesting week of trade while staying with in the recent range. Go into a lot of the analysis in the longer term on the web site so I will minimize here. Prices close higher with gains in volume (positive) but declines in open interest (negative). Prices close the week above the 50 day SMA on the continuous chart (positive), but could not manage closing above the 50 SMA on the spot August chart (negative). Prices close just below the declining trend line from the Feb and Mar highs, but well below the trend line from the Nov ’19 and May ’20 highs. Not sure what to make of it but two weeks ago, prices bounced around in the mid $1.60’s to mid $1.70’s, last week they bounced between the $mid $1.70’s and the mid $1.80’s. This market seems to be garnering support for something- perhaps a break out later this summer or another colossal collapse like the July contract. Maybe you fundamental folks have a clue — I believe I do.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.722
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Prices managed to garner enough support to challenge higher levels but could not muster the power to break above the resistance provided from the declining trend line from the Nov ’19 highs and the early May ’20 highs. That level is also matched in the Spot August chart above which has the 50 day SMA at $1.894. Traders found these resistance areas key for selling. Now that the brief rally has failed- we should expect a test of support either side of $1.70 to be tested as the market remains in a range trading environment.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.722
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

When prices move in a dramatic fashion, as the have since July expiration, traders need and seek confirmation that the trades that have been made are based on credible information. Since the beginning of July the market has been hit with different but substantial fundamental data points, as well as some technical issues discussed here. The trade yesterday, looks like a market seeking justification for the recent run and expecting the storage release to confirm. From the tech standpoint we are still trade in a range and should trade with patience and be resolute in respecting that range.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66
Major Resistance: $1.722, $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance: