Author: Willis Bennett

Interesting week of trade while staying with in the recent range. Go into a lot of the analysis in the longer term on the web site so I will minimize here. Prices close higher with gains in volume (positive) but declines in open interest (negative). Prices close the week above the 50 day SMA on the continuous chart (positive), but could not manage closing above the 50 SMA on the spot August chart (negative). Prices close just below the declining trend line from the Feb and Mar highs, but well below the trend line from the Nov ’19 and May ’20 highs. Not sure what to make of it but two weeks ago, prices bounced around in the mid $1.60’s to mid $1.70’s, last week they bounced between the $mid $1.70’s and the mid $1.80’s. This market seems to be garnering support for something- perhaps a break out later this summer or another colossal collapse like the July contract. Maybe you fundamental folks have a clue — I believe I do.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.722
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Prices managed to garner enough support to challenge higher levels but could not muster the power to break above the resistance provided from the declining trend line from the Nov ’19 highs and the early May ’20 highs. That level is also matched in the Spot August chart above which has the 50 day SMA at $1.894. Traders found these resistance areas key for selling. Now that the brief rally has failed- we should expect a test of support either side of $1.70 to be tested as the market remains in a range trading environment.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.722
Major Resistance: $ $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

When prices move in a dramatic fashion, as the have since July expiration, traders need and seek confirmation that the trades that have been made are based on credible information. Since the beginning of July the market has been hit with different but substantial fundamental data points, as well as some technical issues discussed here. The trade yesterday, looks like a market seeking justification for the recent run and expecting the storage release to confirm. From the tech standpoint we are still trade in a range and should trade with patience and be resolute in respecting that range.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66
Major Resistance: $1.722, $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

The gains continued yesterday and were impressive until towards the end. Trying to challenge the late May high but the closer price got to $2.00 the selling began. Still the range I have been talking about for weeks now, but this is starting to get interesting. Whatever information has been getting into the market — how long it lasts is critical. From a technical perspective a range market testing the consistent range. RSI is continuing to gain but not overbought, the Bollinger Bands are starting to get frosty — but could move another dime without getting worrisome. Volume is supportive for additional gains and the open interest shows gains from last week.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66, $1.714, $1.829
Major Resistance: $1.864-$1.896, $1.933-$1.944, $1.974, $1.994
Minor Resistance:$

Looks like the bulls have garnered support near term for advancing. They are now heading into territory held from the June high of continuous prices at $1.896 ( the high when the July contract took over as prompt). July never seriously tested that level again so it will be interesting to watch what happens here– there may be a sea change coming up (no clue why) but the market still reeks of bearish sentiment.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66
Major Resistance: $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Prices seemed to catch a bid last week — though I am sure there is a fundamental reason why. With that support, expect prices to continue to show strength until what ever news supported last weeks gains ends and a retest of support begins. The market is still in a historically bearish period for prices (Q3) and don’t see any reason to doubt this year’s seasonal.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66
Major Resistance: $1.722, $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

The market retraced some of the gains from Monday and softened some of the trend indicators, however, this does not reflect the end to the run. It is likely that trade in July will follow a series of short covering rallies only to fail at resistance levels similar to yesterday’s price action. The range from the last few months remains intact — be patient and work the range trading on the support and resistance areas.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527, $1.66
Major Resistance: $1.722, $1.864-$1.896
Minor Resistance:

Prices extended the gains from Monday and ran into resistance, but closed higher. A key for prices in the week are volume and participation by the traders. Managed Money long positions gained through the 23rd of June (latest CFTC report available) while short positions were flat. The traders buying on the declines last week, may give some indication of what will happen on the shortened week. History shows that weakness surrounds the holiday period, but that does not confirm that this rally is defunct. Stick to the range trade the market has provided for three months.

Major Support: $1.484-$1.44, $1.336
Minor Support: $1.527
Major Resistance: $1.595, $1.611-1.642
Minor Resistance: $1.722, $1.864-$1.896