Author: Willis Bennett

The rally off of a benign storage report took prices back up, nearing the resistance that rejected gains on Tuesday. This looks like a retracement and through consolidation, setting a higher low (near term) which may propel the gains for another test of resistance (likely) at $3.00. What happens there may well tell us of the near term range for prices — whether higher or lower.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

Prices did little to imply a directional bias yesterday and seemed to consolidate the big gains on Monday and early Tuesday. Now it sits just above last weeks highs before they melted down after expiration of the February contract. No solid break out has been confirmed yet but a weekly close above the resistance above the old gap in the March chart (closed yesterday) will have an impact. Other than that event– this is basically a test of resistance –failure– and tests of support likely.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.87, $2.89, $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

So the rally runs into resistance at the Nov highs and then reverses creating a bearish reversal. I would not consider that a confirmation of the bullish bias that developed on high volume and gaining open interest on Monday, but as mentioned yesterday– you need to keep feeding the bull.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.87, $2.89, $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

Spoke yesterday about working the recent range until the market decided to break down or breakout– yesterday’s action (with high volume) could easily be a break out waiting for a follow through today. It is likely that some of the gains are related to short covering as prices came off late last week after Feb expiration. A key near term indicator for this run to extend further will be the volume and open interest – you must feed the bull which translates to volume and open interest gains.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.87, $2.89, $2.92-$2.997, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

So prices ended the week on the lows only to find prices up $.15 on the Sunday open. Discussed here recently, how the market ends the week is not an indicator of how it opens on Sunday. Is what it is — prices continue to churn in a fairly narrow range ($2.80-$2.55) regardless of the prompt month. Trade this consolidation range near term until the market decides to break out or down.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

What do you want me to say except “Range Trade”. Yesterday I wrote that prices rallied well above $2.70 only to retrace and yesterday prices rallied just below $2.60 only to correct and retrace most of those losses. Guess the storage report was neutral. If you are day trading this market— sell the rallies above the $2.70 and buy dips into the low $2.60’s– I am selling premium and going skiing.

Support: $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

The rally extended to the highs from last Fall, but could not hold the gains. Would still consider this consolidation — waiting for the next piece of news to give directional bias. That news will likely come from the weather forecasts. Expect this pattern to continue near term as forecasts will impact directional bias within the technical range being established.

Support: $2.547-$2.566, $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Yesterday had a fairly narrow trading range but extended the range up to $2.688 only to be unable to hold those gains through the day. Would expect these types of daily actions as long as the demand information remains the same (yes, many of you alerted me to the forecast changes over the weekend as the reason for Monday’s gains). Just remember that when those forecasts warm, the market will be down $.15 in a hurry.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.66, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Price action remained strong through the day, confirming the opening dime increase. I am sure there was some reason for the bullish gains, but I am more interested to see if the extension can garner the support to challenge resistance at the 50 day SMA ($2.66). A break above that key average may allow for prices to run up to $2.80 as there was not significant consolidation in the $2.70’s.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.66, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.547-$2.566, $2.806