Daily Call

Early Weakness Finds Support

Daily Continuous

Prices opened Sunday night with $.20 weakness and held that until the full market opened and support started immediately. The rebound took prices to near term resistance and now the market will have to prove the support accurate and carry the gains further. Fundamental issues will have little impact (barring tropical) as the winter forecasts are in place so the impacts are built into the price action.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.32, $8.45, $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Declines Baby

Daily Continuous

The price action on Thursday and Friday was just brutal (to the downside) as folks figured out that rail strike was not going to happen and then the bears wanted to punish the rally on Friday. Sure looks like prices are headed to $7.00 but not just yet (perhaps after winter becomes defined). If you want to be long the winter into the Q4 — this gives a great chance to establish positions.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.32, $8.45, $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Price Collapse

Weekly Continuous

Prices declined off of the “fake” rally on the rail strike and closed the week down. The “outside” week range with the close approximately equal to the previous week’s low is a significant technical negative. The coming week will be critical for October. Given the weekly reversal, weak close, the first close under the continuation 20 – week SMA since the week of the July Q3 low, the technical odds favor further testing of the last two weekly lows. Violation of that recently support would suggest an immediate test of the August lows $7.532 – $7.550 (the August low of October gas was $7.536).

Market internals continue to provide little support for any continuation of the uptrend…and not much more for extension of the decline from the August high. This week open interest declined as prompt gas rallied to close higher from Thursday to Thursday…a neutral indication at best. Open interest has remained in tight range all summer . Average daily volume was just about unchanged even though volatility increased– neutral.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Give and Take

Daily Continuation

Hope none of you folks got sucked into that concept two days ago that the “rail strike” would impact gas. The strike was never going to happen as all the powers in Washington were going to see to that event did not happening. The market is basically back to where it was before the rail issue surfaced. Prices are dancing around the 50 day SMA, so that will provide no insight on the future movement– I could see declines to $8.00 and can also suggest prices to $8.50 so no unique technical insight here except the seasonal which historically shows a price rally into the Q4.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $8.325, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$ $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

So Much For Consolidation

Daily Continuous

Not exactly sure what hit the market (news) in last hour+ of trade but it got some folks excited. Prices rumble through $9.00 with out much issue and now it seems that prices look to want to test the highs from mid August before the Labor Day decline, I just don’t see the $10.00 level in the immediate future. This is still (for the last year+) a bull market trend so positions should reflect that trend.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $8.325, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$ $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Market Acts Like a Consolidation Phase

Daily Continuation

Yesterday’s $.30 range in prices was one of the lowest of late and was well below the 14 day Average True Range (ATR) which is currently $.52 in the daily charts. Perhaps, the market is pausing in both directions to evaluate the next round of fundamental information. Until the market decides, work the market with some options as the volatility declines, cheapens the cost of the options.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Solid Rebound

Daily Continuous

Solid rebound for prices yesterday and have no fundamental reason for it so I will rely on technical data points showing prices a little oversold on the Daily RSI chart and not confirming the break down with extensions lower after testing support.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Prices Look to A Rebound

Daily Continuation

After a “consolidation” period for trade for three days last week, perhaps prices are ready to start a rebound higher or an extension lower in the coming week. Needless to say that the historical momentum for lower prices remains (but dwindling) and the market is heading into a bullish period associated with the fourth quarter.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.205-$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Near Term Support Holds For Now

Weekly Continuous

Prices extended their decline on the return of trade after the weekend. As discussed, this period of the year is one on the most bearish periods for trade during the year. The declines last week sent price below the 50 day SMA for a close below that zone for the first time since mid-July . The zone between the 50 – day SMA, this last week’s low, and the August low ($7.532) is serious support for October and for the intermediate term uptrend that began following the July low.

With a consolidation pattern developing, the technical indicators typically fluctuates between neutral with a price positive bias and neutral with a price negative basis while a trading range is being constructed. Open interest was steady as the market fell to close lower (a slightly technical positive, but that was offset by increasing volume) . Volatility remains historically extreme with this week’s range $1.375 was greater than the 15 – week average ($1.300). Before the gas market is ready for another leg up daily and weekly ranges tend to compress as buyers and sellers approach a balance forming an equilibrium of a sort.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Consolidation After Major Declines?

Daily Continuation

Prices tried to extend the declines after the report but each attempt into high $7.80’s found buyers. Perhaps the market is starting the consolidation process after loosing over $2.25 since the highs last month. Time will tell as the market remains in the historically bearish period of the year.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance: $8.22, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.