Daily Call

Last week continued the strength but started to hit some selling. Go into near term expectations for price in the Weekly section, for today I would expect a slight retracement of the buying back up to Friday’s mid zone around $6.40’s. The market should struggle a little in this top area and correct for a more traditional bull rally. The market has not provided any evidence that there will be a “blow off” type of topping process so expect a more stair step run in the coming weeks.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.366, $6.466-$6.53, $7.346

Spoke of consolidation around the $6.00 area similar to last months behavior around the $5.00 area last month– Well I was wrong as prices exploded on the lightest volume day of the week. That being said, this week’s total volume looks to be the highest in the last month. Higher volume on flat or gaining open interest is supportive to the bullish case. However, this market is starting to reflect an over – cooked bull run in the secondary and primary technical indicators– be very cautious in adding to positions here as prices retreated from testing the early October high. Some folks might advise taking some profits at these highs.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.366, $6.466, $7.346

My apologies for a lack of publications yesterday — brutal stomach ailment. Would of mentioned yesterday, and will again today, that the market is having a hard time with”key” levels ($6.00 this month $5.00 last month) and will correct back to the “key” levels. Last month price retreated 10% before rallying into the close. Does the market trade and close below the key level — no clue. Would expect another consolidation day or two around the $6.00 area as the market interprets the fundamental indicators going forward.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $6.24-$6.28, $6.366, $6.466

As discussed yesterday, prices spent some yesterday consolidating the gains from recent trade. Longer term technical indicators are not over bought and would still support a test of high end of the range discussed in the Weekly section yesterday. As discussed in the Weekly section, there is likely a brief correction but would not initially expect the retracement to carry far (perhaps $5.25-$5.30). Total volume yesterday was close to the highs from last storage report but lower than last Friday– still support higher prices and continued gains.

Major Support:$5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.83, $5.97, $6.24

The expiring April extended its rally to $5.653 last week before fading to expire at $5.336 (similar to expiring March contract which traded to $4.944, the high of its tenure as prompt, before going off the board at $4.568). April settled higher than March for the first time since 2018. May (which closed $.006 discount to April settlement, traded lower on its first day as prompt, then reversed higher. Considered an “outside” day reversal with increasing volume left the new prompt at the highest daily continuation close since November 4th (one exception was the bizarre Feb expiration). The last trading day of March ended with another higher close and the first one above the February high. Calendar month closes above the previous month’s high are usually an indication of continuation of the intermediate term trend (bullish).

Volume and open interest increased along with price for a second week. Average daily volume was an estimated 40,000 contracts higher than last week’s +/- 47,000 increase over the prior week’s. Open interest increased a modest 4,000 contracts last week (from Thursday through Thursday). Volume and open interest moving in the same direction as price is a significant technical positive.

Prices continued there gains to test the highs from last November as prices tried to retrace the declines from the late October run. From those gains prices declined and closed just above the Feb high for gas. From here the near term technical data points lean to a slight over bought condition but longer term indications are not at the extreme levels.

Major Support:$5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.572, $5.65, $6.24

While there was a slight rally into the expiration process and prices declined on the expiration day, they immediately regained strength with the May contract as prompt. Does this run eclipse the $5.65 or is there some consolidation period. Short term trade would include the run up to the aforementioned resistance and selling some on the gains. If you are shorting the market –keep stops tight as a break above that level will open you to a $.20 gain on the next move.

Major Support:$5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.572, $5.65, $6.24

Shockingly, the market declined slightly yesterday after last week’s run. The question now is does it move higher on expiration. Not much to do but look for “bizarre” runs or declines and play those with options. Keep trades with tight stops.

Major Support:$4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $5.08, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $5.33, $5.572, $5.65, $6.24