Daily Call

New Prompt — Same Range — So Far

Weekly Continuation

July has traded the high of its tenure three times in the last ten years just before going to settlement, ’16, ’21 and ’23. Of those three ’23 is most similar to current conditions, but in all three…even in ’21 with prompt gas in a defined uptrend, settlement on the last day of June was $3.373, the calendar August low $3.734. Notwithstanding its well – defined uptrend, the gas market spent most of the summer consolidating before extending a rally into Q4 (in ’23 that high traded during October). July ’26 settled $.191 higher than June ($3.231, the highest settlement since February v $3.040) as expected.

August gas has been range-bound since the last trading day of March…between +/- $3.000 and $3.410 – $3.430. The April and May lows of August gas, $2.974 and $3.001, together with the June low, $3.059 should provide substantial support. Higher monthly lows are technically constructive but expect August to remain confined (with slight expansions due to potential weather implications) in a range similar to July.

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Holiday Has History

Daily Continuous

Prices are going to be running into a historically bullish (limited) period going into or out of the 4th of July holiday. Would still look for the range that has been intact for the recent few weeks to hold but be aware that there may be an extension to the range. I would expect that extension to be to the upside.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Nothing Technically New

Weekly Continuous

While traveling over the last few days and during the weekend, I realized that there is nothing new about the range and any other aspects of the market so while I have internet while driving — will recommend to play the range.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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See the Weekly

Daily Continuous

Nothing new — just play the range

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Well Look Nothing New

Daily Continuous

Still in the recent range nothing new in yesterday/s trade.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Volume Consistent

Daily Continuous

Volume has been consistent this week and last as prices have maintained the mid-range. Below last week’s average as prices fell but no impact from the range trade of the six trading days. Continue to play the range and if volatility remains dormant– selling premium is always an option (nice play on words).

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Seems Like a Test of the High End of Range

Daily Continuous

Not a whole lot to add to the title as prices rebounded and want to test the high side of the range from earlier in the month. Just before those highs is the 200 day (SMA) and / or the 40 Week (SMA) so we may get some inference at those levels.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Not Much To Write

Weekly Continuation

Another quiet week in a market that seems very content to stay in a range. The consensus of technical indicators is neutral. The technical indicators have now been neutral for fifteen of the last sixteen weeks. That’s pretty typical for the consensus during the construction of a trading range. A close above the 40 – weeks SMA with rising supporting volume would trigger positive agreement of the indicators. A close below the trend line rising from the April and May lows would likely result in negative agreement.

The weekly MACD, our primary “lagging” indicator, remained positive while the daily calculation is negative . The weekly RSI is neutral – negative. After stalling at a lower higher ten days ago the daily RSI is neutral. Market internals have been mixed for four straight weeks. Average daily volume was higher as the prompt fell…a technical negative, but on the other side -open interest fell 31,000 + as the prompt fell…a technical positive. Last week the total range traded was about half of the week before. This week that range continued to contract, from .297 to .218. The weekly ATR fell to a lower low .311 v .328. While it has not always been so, that is considered at least neutral. The daily ATR increased from .148 to .153

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No Startling Announcement Here

Daily Continuation

Go into what little last week provided us in the Weekly section. Really have nothing to add but it will be interesting to watch the gas markets in relation to the likelihood of volatility in the crude market. Stick with the ranges established.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Storage Brings Selling

Daily Continuous

The storage release brought some selling to the price action but could not break down through support. There may be an extension to the declines today, but any further declines, testing support zones, should be met with buying at support for short term gains.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736