Category: Weekly Detail

New Prompt — Same Range — So Far

Weekly Continuation

July has traded the high of its tenure three times in the last ten years just before going to settlement, ’16, ’21 and ’23. Of those three ’23 is most similar to current conditions, but in all three…even in ’21 with prompt gas in a defined uptrend, settlement on the last day of June was $3.373, the calendar August low $3.734. Notwithstanding its well – defined uptrend, the gas market spent most of the summer consolidating before extending a rally into Q4 (in ’23 that high traded during October). July ’26 settled $.191 higher than June ($3.231, the highest settlement since February v $3.040) as expected.

August gas has been range-bound since the last trading day of March…between +/- $3.000 and $3.410 – $3.430. The April and May lows of August gas, $2.974 and $3.001, together with the June low, $3.059 should provide substantial support. Higher monthly lows are technically constructive but expect August to remain confined (with slight expansions due to potential weather implications) in a range similar to July.

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Nothing Technically New

Weekly Continuous

While traveling over the last few days and during the weekend, I realized that there is nothing new about the range and any other aspects of the market so while I have internet while driving — will recommend to play the range.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Not Much To Write

Weekly Continuation

Another quiet week in a market that seems very content to stay in a range. The consensus of technical indicators is neutral. The technical indicators have now been neutral for fifteen of the last sixteen weeks. That’s pretty typical for the consensus during the construction of a trading range. A close above the 40 – weeks SMA with rising supporting volume would trigger positive agreement of the indicators. A close below the trend line rising from the April and May lows would likely result in negative agreement.

The weekly MACD, our primary “lagging” indicator, remained positive while the daily calculation is negative . The weekly RSI is neutral – negative. After stalling at a lower higher ten days ago the daily RSI is neutral. Market internals have been mixed for four straight weeks. Average daily volume was higher as the prompt fell…a technical negative, but on the other side -open interest fell 31,000 + as the prompt fell…a technical positive. Last week the total range traded was about half of the week before. This week that range continued to contract, from .297 to .218. The weekly ATR fell to a lower low .311 v .328. While it has not always been so, that is considered at least neutral. The daily ATR increased from .148 to .153

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Seasonal History Remains

Weekly Continuation

Soon to expire June extended its rally to test the continuation 20 – weeks SMA (and its own 20 – weeks average) before reversing lower from an historically consistent mid – May pre Memorial Day high. In eight of the last ten years that short – term seasonal high traded between the 12th and 23rd. Last year the pre – holiday high printed on the 12th (Memorial Day was the 26th) this year on the 20th (Memorial Day is on the 25th. A lower weekly close…after opening above last week’s high ($2.994 v $2.982) with a volume increase (average daily volume increased nearly 70,000 contracts) and a closing short – term uptrend violation indicates that prompt gas will be offered lower before going off the board on Wednesday. Following June expiration the new prompt almost always falls toward a late May/early June low before a rally (which more often than not peaks either side of 06/15 and can be, historically, more often than not the Q2 high.

There is little reason not to believe that prompt gas is likely to continue to adhere to seasonal patterns/tendencies as it has since the blowoff into February expiration. It has been suggested that gas is in the process of constructing a trading range between +/- $2.50 and $3.25 – $3.50 and may continue for much of the remainder of ’26. Gas may test either side of that range while premiums awarded to deferred and distant deferred contracts diminish.

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Bias Change Receives Some Confirmation

Weekly Continuation

Trade during May is an example of a price supportive seasonality that historically emerges during Q2. Prompt gas had closed above the April high during May in 16 of 20 years. On a continuation basis prompt gas closed below its 50 – day SMA every day since 01/29 (the first day of March’s tenure as prompt)…until Monday 05/11. On Friday the June contract followed suit, closing above its 50 – day for the first time since 03/12.

Although occasionally June rallies into expiration (’18 & ’22), typically during May the prompt trades to a mid – month, pre Memorial Day high. In eight of the last ten years that short – term seasonal high traded between the 12th and 23rd, before a decline through the holiday to an end of May – first week of June low. A year ago the May high traded on 05/12, the post – Memorial Day low was a little earlier than usual, on 05/28 (Memorial Day was the 26th).

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Still Churning

Weekly Continuous

This week looks a lot like last week in terms of technical insights. The consensus of technical indicators remains neutral for the third week, before that it was neutral for seven of eight weeks. Typically, the consensus will remain neutral when prompt gas is attempting to define a trading range, with a bias that fluctuates between positive and negative. Despite incremental improvement there is no discernible bias at present.

Market internals, volume and open interest, were neutral. Both increased with prompt gas little changed for the week. The view is that increased open interest while a short – term trade range is defined suggests accumulation ahead of a Q2 rally.

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Trying to Turn to Seasonal Bias

Weekly Continuous

During calendar April the May contract closely followed the tendency to weaken into the period immediately before settlement. May ‘26’s lower low on the last day of its tenure before a modest recovery most closely resembles 2024. May ’24 traded to $1.482 (which in that case happened to be a perfect test of the March Q1 low at $1.481) before going off the board at $1.614.

Similar to this year volume was drying up…suggesting that prompt gas was constructing a significant low, but there was a notable difference in the premium afforded to the new prompt. June ’24 opened its first day as prompt at $1.923, leaving an “expiration” gap between $1.628 and $1.916. This year the gap is $2.578 – $2.592. That difference likely says something about fundamental expectations but I have no clue.

A purely technical view of the spring of ‘24 is that June’s premium enabled it to close above the March high on its first day as prompt, this then became support. This year prompt June is looking up at, and Friday began to test resistance presented by the March ‘26 low ($2.803 v June’s post expiration high of $2.821 and close of $2.780).

The takeaway may be that the gas market traded a traditional spring low coincident with May expiration as it has in a number of other years …expect something similar to those other years during spring and early summer ’26.

With the assistance of June’s premium, prompt gas traded an “outside” week reversal higher and ended the week above last week’s high. Reversals from lower lows have long been the gas market’s preferred method of communicating that an unsustainable low had been traded…the fly in that ointment is that the volume to confirm that reversal was miss.

Given the expectation of seasonal strength but the lack of volume prompt June will likely discover sponsorship well above the May expiration low while trading sideways to a little higher for most of its tenure as prompt.

A week ago, the consensus of technical indicators improved back to neutral (where it had been for seven weeks) after one week in negative agreement for the first time since the decline to the Q3 ’25 low. This week the consensus continued to improve.

Last week the primary momentum indicators, the weekly calculations of the MACD and RSI were in negative agreement. This week there is no agreement. The “lagging” MACD is negative for a thirteenth week. The “leading” RSI improved to positive without ever reaching its extreme zone. Daily calculations ended positive…the RSI after closing with an extremely oversold reading, the MACD turned higher with the potential bullish momentum divergence mentioned in the last couple of weeks.

Market internals, have gradually improved over the last two weeks were mixed. Volume fell a little week over week, but that decline can be attributed to only 252,472 contracts changing hands as May traded to a lower low before going off the board. Even with that, average daily volume of +/- 356,500 contracts was only about 4,500 lower.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Price Headed to Lows Into Expiration

Weekly Continuous

Prompt gas traded deeper into a zone of mathematical support derived from the decline from the February expiration high and has done so by closing lower in six of the last seven weeks (the only exception was week ending 03/27 when prompt gas closed unchanged from the previous week)…and on a continuation basis twelve of the fourteen weeks since prompt February printed $7.827 before going off the board at $7.460. That persistent decline has left the gas market oversold and approaching but not yet closing into its historical EXTREME zone and 26.7% below its 40 – weeks SMA.

A week ago, the consensus of technical indicators, which had been neutral for seven weeks with a fluctuating bias, was negative for the first time since the decline to the Q3 ’25 low. This week with prompt gas falling to the lowest weekly close since August ’24 the consensus improved, back to neutral.

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In Search of a Low

Weekly Continuous

May was offered through the August 2025 low, to the lowest price traded since November ’24, and into the zone of support mathematically derived from the continuation decline from the February high before recovering to end the week with a gain. While modest, .026…the higher weekly close was the first for the May contract and on a continuation basis since March 10th. The recovery from a lower low to close back above the ’25 annual low had the look of a rejection of prompt gas below $2.60, but rather as probing for a lower price level that was rejected last August. Volume for the week was higher (modestly), and while technically positive (with the rally) comes with a caveat.

The satisfaction of a mathematical objective (test of mid term support), recovery from a lower low to close back above a previous significant low, and the unwinding of “bear spreads” (talked about a couple of weeks ago) are characteristic of the gas market attempting to define a seasonal low (I am just not convinced we won’t see a test of $2.60’s again). Volume over the last three days was significantly less than during Tuesday’s decline to the first daily close below $2.622 (the ’25 annual low)…and even though the prompt managed a close above short – term declining trend line resistance that violation was not accompanied by a volume increase. I would expect a small rally which will likely fail at resistance (numerous places up to and including $3.00), then likely retest the water in the $2.60’s.

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Market Succumbs to Intermediate Support

Weekly Continuation

Prompt May traded through and closed below the continuation February and March lows and did so with increasing volume and open interest, then continued to fall to test the August Q3 ’25 – 2025 annual low ($2.622).

The lowest weekly close during 2025 was 2.692, this week’s close at $2.648 decisively violates the weekly closing support, but lower volume during than the third week of August (2,082,932 v 2,345,182) indicates fewer willing sellers than there were at the Q3 low. Even so, the highest weekly volume total in four weeks (since 2,509,774 contracts traded during week ending 03/20/26) suggests that the initial test of the ’25 low is likely that May will be offered lower during the coming week. This week’s close was the lowest since prompt December ’24 closed at $2.525 on 10/25/24 and volume was also higher as that low was traded.

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