Category: Daily Call

Well that was a brief extension upwards, but the declines on Sunday/Monday down to $2.70 need to be re-confirmed. Thought yesterday may bring that but so much for my thoughts. This area needs to be traded cautiously as no defined floor has been established but many areas of resistance ($2.92-$3.00) are evident. Sometimes it is prudent to sit back and wait for the market to paint the picture.

Support:$2.764, $2.74, $2.65, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.85

The first two (almost three) weeks of February gave us consistent ranges to trade gas and provided some decent revenue. Will wait patiently to see if March provides the same opportunity. Will need to see where the support is (here or below down to $2.65) to bring out some low risk buying. Already know the high end of near term range is $2.85-$2.94 up to $3.00. Now we need to find where the low end resides.

Support:$2.764, $2.74, $2.65, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.85

Prices continued to decline on Friday making lower prices in four of the last five days. Testing the support zones during the day, prices bounced and rallied during the day trade. Would correlate that action to testing the support and garnishing the support to rally from. Play the ranges until the market tells us different.

April as prompt traded in an $.08 range yesterday– the struggle between the bullish storage report and the recent down trend turned out to be a quiet event. Doubt there will be anything dramatic going into the weekend but with natural gas — you never know. Long term analysis will be updated over the weekend but nothing has changed from the action of calendar February.

Support:$2.764, $2.74, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

It is likely that the losses from yesterday may continue into today but with the expiration on Wednesday- would not look for any major collapse. The movements have taken prices back into the range that they traded for a significant part of February and the April contract is right with the expiring March. Work the range (similar to the first two weeks of Feb) through expiration.

Support:$2.98-$3.05, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

Last week’s explosion was rejected short of the highs from last November and retreated to the resistance area from where they broke out. As discussed, the rally was suspect as the gains were primarily in the prompt month and the summer differed contracts did not gain near the same pace. Only problem was the summer strip did not capitulate and closed near its highs. March is heading into expiration and the area between $2.90 and $3.10 are likely to bring volatility to trade.

Support:$2.98-$3.05, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

Discussed yesterday about the March contract seemed to be “going it alone” in the recent run. As discussed the summer strip was not as enthusiastic for higher prices and remained calmer. Perhaps yesterday’s action confirmed why, as a significant storage number was sold into and after the release. Next week’s number will be higher (according to some who track) and while yesterday’s release put current levels at a deficit to last year next week’s release may show inventories at a deficit to the 5 year average. That is all the fundamental stuff I hear but from a technical standpoint– depending on how tomorrow closes several technical considerations may come into play.

Support:$2.98-$3.05, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172