Category: Daily Call

You can clearly say it is trying to break above $3.00 (for the last 5 trade days) and force some shorts to cover — but by the lack of success– the market may be signalling it isn’t ready yet. Continue to sell at the top of the range– keep stops tight and be buying on any declines into the $2.80’s this week.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

Nice quiet day doing nothing which we all know is a market consolidating for the next move. Is it building a base for the next run upward or is it defining the the top end for a collapse downward. Put you money where you want– I think both are in order with a slight decline to test the mid $2.80’s but there is no technical area there for support– not until $2.783- as prices just rocked through the $2.80’s on the way up. From there the $3.00 area is the target.

Support: $2.78, $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.876, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

A higher weekly close for six of seven weeks can be interpreted as bullish but would not rule out a challenge to the support between the $2.87-$2.82 zone. Key area for price action near term as prices may look for support and should they garner the power to trade above $3.00 then it will adjust the summer strip picture.

Prices declined and closed the premium from the expiration quickly, now the issue becomes do the declines take prices down to test support levels as the rally to resistance is secure. Would expect additional probes lower today going into the weekend.

Support: $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414
Minor Support:$2.890, $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.12
Minor Resistance:

One of my old time clients called me yesterday and asked when this type of cross commodity run had happened and how did it effect natural gas. I mentioned it would take me some time to put the charts for the other commodities and if I am bored over the weekend, I may just do it. Regardless, he and I agreed that neither one of saw this kind of melt up on the May expiration coming- it will be interesting to watch as I got cleared on May’s with options and contract yesterday and now want to see how June takes over on storage Thursday. As mentioned in a couple of articles this week — if June holds the gains from expiration then this summer may provide volatility in the Q2 trade we have not seen for a few years.

Support: $2.71-$2.70, $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.897, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:

Been a while since I have seen this type of commodity tear across the board and the continued gains are quite unreal. Not sure if you have been trading them, but corn, soybeans and copper have presented opportunities that are remarkable. Getting a little frothy now, but perhaps gas is trying to catch the tail wind as it continues to hold support and show positive trade each day. With the general commodity run — it may become more difficult to find a good resistance area and would not try picking a top or shorting at this stage– safer to play the ranges in the small increments that the ranges have provided. Just not convinced that gas will not be swept up into the run of nearly all commodities.

Support: $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.897, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

The market provided a break out signal with the action breaking and closing above previous resistance– but did so with some caveats as volume and open interest declined. Discussed those events in detail on the Weekly analysis and won’t repeat here. Three days left in the May contract and my expectations are weaker but the support holding into expiration. Should the June contract maintain strength through the process — then that will have implications for the upcoming summer.

Support: $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.897, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

The storage report supplied some juice to the trade as we got a $.122 range in volatility yesterday. Guesses are that surprised some of the fundamental trade folks. Volume was slightly higher but nothing significant– so now the market is signalling more gains (not sure what data point will drive it) and we will have to watch where this rally subsides as it will likely be the initial resistance for the next month as well.

Support: $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

I could not resist one of my readers sarcastically mentioned that the run looked like it was consolidating the gains from Monday – needless to say I kept the chuckle between us. One other client mentioned that the market looked tired (again I took it as sarcasm) – really?– its been doing nothing but range trading between $2.69 and $2.50 for over a week– if that tires a market out then traders should seek a new job. What can be said about this market is it seems to seeking a “new mini-range” all within the greater range from last fall and will likely define the key resistance in short order (my bet on Thursday). This form of quiet time in natty is a great time to sell premium.

Support: $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806