Category: Daily Call

December started off as prompt with declines back below the $6.00 level. Not sure of the reasons for prices having issues with the $6.00 level, but it is clear that the market is not comfortable with prices remaining above that level for extended periods of time. Trade should respect this issue near term or until the trend and behavior changes. The general range has not changed from last month from $5.30 to $6.00.

Major Support:$5.655, $5.275, $5.17, $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92
Minor Support: $5.489, $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $6.008, $6.24-$6.493, $6.28,$6.466

For the eight consecutive month, expiration was met with strength in prices. So strong was the Nov expiration that it the price drove through the Dec price that now takes over as prompt. Now prices sit over the $6.00 threshold which seemed to present problems during the previous runs. All during the excitement in October, there was only one daily close above $6.00. How does this strength play out. Look to add to length on retracement– if your shorting this market for longer trade positions — re-evaluate strategy– there is not technical indication that this strength (longer term) is abating.

Major Support:$5.82, $5.655, $5.275, $5.17, $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92
Minor Support: $5.489, $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance $6.24-$6.493, $6.28,$6.466

Prices started higher last night and would speculate that there is some weather related issue causing it. From a technical standpoint, the failure of the test of support (50 day SMA) and then a rebound (discussed in the Weekly), suggested that prices would start the week stronger. The other bullish factor is the seven month history of strength during the expiration process. Would continue to expect strength the next few days.

Major Support:$5.275, $5.17, $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.40, $5.489, $5.655, $5.822

Prices working just as they should — testing support then correcting and now we will see about the run and how high it can go. The key is the expiration and the trend of the last expiration’s showing strength through the expiration. Perhaps, there is some weakness today or early Monday. Continue to buy dips and the sell resistance areas, though they are so variant in price (due to the large daily gains in Sep and early Oct) so pick your points accordingly.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.17, $5.275, $5.395, $5.489

As discussed yesterday, a positive run in prices was likely after the test of support. This run should bring us some information as to the interim resistance area and the storage release should be instrumental in leading the developing high end of the near term range. The over-all market is still realizing the demand/supply imbalance for the upcoming winter, however, the forecasts are not yet supporting the runs from late September and October. Stay tuned.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.17, $5.275, $5.395, $5.489

Declines continued and took a run at the lows from the post Labor Day lows. Breaking below, in the early morning trade, the low extension could not hold and prices gained strength during the trade day. The initial decline has now presented a new area of support for prices to test in the coming weeks. Would expect a rally to define the high end of the range this week and perhaps expiration as the trend has been for strength through the expiration process.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.17,

That was easier than I had expected as prices declined through the intermediate support zones and close below $5.00 for the first time since late September. Will be interested to see how far the declines continue as nothing has changed regarding world wide supply and demand balance that I was told driving the gains. U. S. demand going into November looks mild but again that was not the catalyst (so I was told). How much with the fundamental kids take prices lower before they get interested in supporting price again. I care not as my trades have always been based upon the technical side of price action– funny how all that fundamental crap means little to levels and trends.

Major Support: $4.88, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.17, $5.34, $5.63- $5.68

Prices weakened on Friday (per expectations) and now look to test the support zone at $5.17 and then stay above the critical $5.00 level which has not been broken for a month. Not sure the bears have the power or commitment to break that level as the general supply and demand imbalance situation has not modified in the last week. Hence, continue the range market that will control prices near term.

Major Support:$5.416, $5.341, $5.17, $4.88, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.63- $5.68

Prices ran up to the high side of the new range and promptly failed. This is now trading like a “normal” commodity behavior instead of the rocket ship we enjoyed last month and early in October. Would expect prices now to test support area established earlier this week before next week’s storage report. On the other hand, the market seems to be correlated to other gas futures in Europe, Great Britain and Asia– so not having a license for those contracts, leaves me cautious at best.

Major Support:$5.416, $5.341, $5.17, $4.88, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.63- $5.68, $5.876, $6.24-$6.49