Category: Daily Call

Mentioned in the last couple of Daily’s about the last 6 month expiration behavior being supportive to prices– Yesterday was a re-enforcement of those concerns as prices rallied slightly after the the storage release only to add to the gains into the close with strong support trade on the close. Are we headed back to the September highs?– probably not with the Oct contract but later in the fall, expect a test of those highs at the least. Perhaps the trend of the last six months of expiration strength will be broken but not going to bet against the trend (especially in a long term bull market trend).

Major Support: $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.24, $5.486, $5.65, $5.93

Was curious if the declines would extend below the $4.72 area and was not surprised the the selling ran out of momentum. Just a solid day of price consolidation after loosing nearly a dollar (16.5 %) decline. Still expecting declines but have to respect the last 6 month trend of expiration rallies. Strategic times in this area for setting up final winter positions.

Major Support: $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.24, $5.486, $5.65, $5.93

The discussion yesterday was having a test of $4.75 and that challenge is now completed — the next challenge will be testing the $4.66 area and my thoughts on that are muddled with the history of the last six expiration’s ending with rallies. Not convinced that the area from the Dec ’18 highs will be tested with the Oct contract. Prices have declined for four consecutive days — it is likely we will see a bounce.

Major Support: $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.24, $5.486, $5.65, $5.93

Prices started lower on Sunday night (similar to recent weekend prices) only to find support on the open of the outcry which took prices up to $5.17 before the selling resumed. Unlike the previous Monday’s, prices retraced and settle the day down. As discussed yesterday, the market should build a consolidation period to launch into the Q4 run that will be coming later this fall. Would expect a test of support somewhere between today’s low and $4.75 during the near term. The only caveat to that expectation is the history of expiration rallies for the last few months.

Major Support: $4.879, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.90, $4.728-$4.70, $4.65
Major Resistance: $5.24, $5.486, $5.65, $5.93

I can waste your time by outlining all the reasons why the market should continue to correct, but in the last month , the declines that the market has provided are nothing more than an area for bull to reload and rock on. I am bullish on prices during the next month or so — but having it happen in this form becomes problematic for this trader. I care not about the reasons why the market is rising — but have been expecting it since last fall– I care more about the way the run is occurring– PARABOLIC. No clue as to when the market will decide but perhaps it is starting to show it’s hand. You fundamental folks are likely not to notice but there may be some technical indications of a brief change. We shall see and if my suspicions are right then I will post in the upcoming Weekly section. The trend has been to come in and watch the market scream upward.

Major Support: $4.879, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.90, $4.728-$4.70, $4.65
Major Resistance: $5.486, $5.65, $5.93

Not a lot more to say than yesterday’s trade brought about a little different action. Prices have been opening significantly higher in the early trade (guess the folks in Europe and the far East need some more fun beyond their markets) and the gains have been held on to for most of the day. Yesterday, trade bought about a significant reversal that severely reduced the gains. From there, prices rebounded, and left the market with a solid gain. Not sure what all the early morning action is about– except that is when the cash markets across the nation are trading, which may have an influence with some of gulf production down– but now I am going down that ugly fundamental road so I will cease before I show my limitations. Hot hand continues — play on.

Major Support: $4.879, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.90, $4.728-$4.70, $4.65
Major Resistance: $5.486, $5.65, $5.93

Wow — look at that Daily chart over the last three weeks- rocket ship / brief consolidation; rocket ship / brief consolidation; rocket ship / waiting on brief consolidation. A very impressive run and if you were in Vegas it would be a hot hand– keep playing. Bear in mind though — there may be a brief consolidation yet this week. Can’t even consider using the term “correction” as we haven’t seen one lately.

Major Support: $4.879, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.90, $4.728-$4.70, $4.65
Major Resistance: $5.21-$5.39, $5.486

Prices opened strong and held most of the gains throughout the day. No consolidation, rather stronger gains as prices set a new higher weekly high. These gains continue for fundamental reasons which this analyst cannot confirm nor deny. The only analysis provided here, is the gains will continue until the buyer’s momentum ceases. Just be aware of what will happen eventually as discussed in the Weekly section.

Major Support: $4.879, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.90, $4.728-$4.70, $4.65
Major Resistance: $5.21-$5.39, $5.486

What more can we say but the market printed a higher high each day of the week last week. Go into the longer term indications of this activity in the Weekly area so take a look. If you remain bullish, trade carefully with tight stops, but entering later after the potential retracement may be a more advantageous for adding to positions.

Major Support: $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722,
Minor Support: $4.90, $4.728-$4.70, $4.65
Major Resistance: $5.01, $5.21-$5.39, $5.486