Category: Daily Call

Early Sunday night strength melted during the early day trade only to be revisited during the remainder of the day trade. Market seems to be testing resistance at the new range that was developed during the trade last week. Would not consider the highs from the short covering expiration as the high end of the range but where prices trade to this week as a better indication.

Major Support: $4.19-$4.186, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.73, $4.52, $4.38
Major Resistance: $4.876, $5.088, $5.81

Explained in the Weekly section about an issue with my charting software and not being able to chart the run on the expiration day of Feb gas. Will look to correct this week. Regardless of charting software– the market did not give up the gains in Mar gas and the open on Sunday night confirmed the strength on Friday. The Weekly section discusses the history of Mar gas after Feb expiration and trading in early February and recommend reading as it highlights what to expect this week. Due to the volatility around the expiration and Sunday night– I will be sidelined until the market has a chance to define its new ranges — that said it seems that the bullish bias to trade is back and that dips will likely be bought.

Major Support: $4.19-$4.186, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.52, $4.38
Major Resistance: $4.73, $4.876, $5.088, $5.81

Now that is a “wood shed” moment- The chart above clearly shows what happens when volume is light at expiration and some folks have to cover. The High of $7.346 is unbelievable and well above my closing range high for Feb gas in the Weekly section — That said, prices did return for a few trades with in the range. What is more important is the Daily chart below for March gas that takes over as prompt tomorrow. In the Daily chart below, notice it did not enjoy the same short cover squeeze that prompt Feb endured, rather staying well within the defined range.

Take a day or two to let the “froth” in the market to clear define it’s intention by consolidating in a new or similar range. Guess it is cold back East, buy gas now. Let this digest.

Mentioned in the Weekly Section that a rally might take prices to last week’s high (false holiday rally) and that is exactly where the expiring Feb contract went yesterday. As expected, the summer nor the March followed with such gusto. If you are still in the Feb good luck– for the March and summer months I think this is a good place to sit back and take a few breaths.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522 63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance: $4.18, $4.32 , $4.39, $4.48, $4.73

Prices continues lower yesterday testing the near term support at $3.82 which represents the June high at $3.814. This would be a higher low discussed in the Weekly section, but not convinced that the declines are over. The next area for a test lower is the August low at $3.734. A consolidation of the recent $.45+ decline would also be in play for the last day of trade this week.

Prices broke down below the commonly traded Moving Averages and started to test the support from many of the weekly highs from last December (including the lows from the week ending 12/3). A continuation of the break down will likely find little support until $3.81-$3.73 in the coming weeks.

Major Support: $4.02, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522 63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance:$4.18, $4.32, $4.48, $4.73-$4.775, $4.818-$4.825, $5.045

Not a ton to write about as prices consolidated yesterday and may very well trade in a tight range again today. It seems to waiting for the next piece of news that will drive volatility. Nothing to do trading wise as prices are in the middle of recent range– hello chop trade.

Major Support: $4.02, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.27, $4.19,$3.82
Major Resistance: $4.32, $4.48, $4.73-$4.775, $4.818-$4.825, $5.045