Category: Daily Call

Prices gaped open on Sunday night then retraced during the morning to close both the Daily and Weekly gaps then spent the remainder of the day rebounding off the declines to close the day with a solid gain on strong volume. Now the market will decide to expand on the runs or consolidate the momentum change for a couple of days. Expect a retest of the $4.00 area and perhaps a run at yesterday’s high.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance: $4.02, $4.127, $4.20, $4.278

Went into some of the technical / market internals that may be starting to change as prices have remained range bound while open interest has declined in the Weekly section. Needless to say there will be damage to the technical bearish bias if the gap open on Sunday night remains in place. It would be wise to wait for confirmation of the Sunday night run today before establishing substantial positions.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $3.82
Major Resistance: $4.02, $4.127, $4.20, $4.278

No Daily yesterday as the market had not achieved anything to write about and just stayed with in the recent $.40 range. The storage release came out bearish and prices initially fell only to rebound as the morning went along. The range is what it is and should continue.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.827, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20, $4.278

I wish I could make some intriguing technical assessment of the current market — but I can’t. The range is rule so play it. The range does seem to be narrowing as the market sets lower highs and higher lows (daily basis) — so perhaps that will facilitate a break out or break down.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.827, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20, $4.278

After discussing all the history around the “gap” events at the first of the year — the market decided to make a fool of me again by having one of the calmest openings to a new year in quite awhile. Now the price action remains in the “old” range trade and is chasing the high end of the range. Continue to work for the $.25 margins provided well within the range.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.827, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20, $4.278

Hope all had a great celebration entering the new year and a wish for success in the coming year. Price retraced back to support as the Feb contract took over as prompt. Before that, the expiration process continued the last ten months trend of strength. Go into some of the history of price behavior around the first of January in the Weekly section so please take a moment to review. This week and this month has a strong impact on upcoming year (Weekly). Techs have not changed — range trade and after setting a lower low last week, prices rebounded off the extension. Perhaps this behavior will continue until traders get a better indication of how the winter will leave inventories.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.827, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20, $4.278

This will be the final Daily for 2021 — I hope you enjoyed as strong a year this last year and hope to repeat it in 2022. Not much to say about prices except that it looks like the tenth consecutive month that has been well-bid into expiration. Am thinking about writing an article about an odd historical activity that occurs around the fist of the New Year — so check the web and your email on Thursday or Friday. Good Luck in 2022.

Heading into the expiration and some changes in the forecasts leads to some early strength on Sunday night. The last week of the year is historically light in trade volume and subject to volatility. The technical indicators are starting to show some over sold momentum and at the low end of the December range. This week should provide some indications of the upcoming range in January.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.93, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20

While the NYMEX continues to range trade the European and Britain gas contracts have been screaming, eclipsing the highs from early October (same period that the prompt Nov set the high for NYMEX). My concern is that the run over the pond finds its way to the US as it did last fall. So far, the mild forecasts have provided the hedge folks with a good short if long the Dutch contract. That is what bothers me if those shorts are forced to cover due to forecasts changes. Will look at the data from the CFTC over the weekend to find any clues. Until then, will continue to work the range.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.93, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20

The action was quiet and likely to be lighter as the week moves on. Several folks have mentioned that the way the Holiday sets up — folks will be taking time before as well as after the Holiday. In spite of the folks traveling volume was stronger as it has been on the last three Mondays. Expect this type of behavior to continue with this caveat– the amount of open interest (bulls loosing faith) that has left the market during the month, leaves the potential for upside bias and the last nine months being well did into expiration, may eventually run prices.

Major Support: $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $3.91-$3.93, $4.02, $4.127, $4.20