Not sure what fundamental news forced price up to $7.872, but that is what happened last night on the open. Refer to it as light trade silliness with trade trying to force some sort of reaction when the trade is light and easily effected. Was provided some interesting analysis from a good friend that was put in the Weekly section– going to give you a choice of what will be occurring in the near future.
For over a year every prompt contract has weakened around mid life as prompt in its tenure– perhaps that’s what we saw this week. May fell 28.5% from the 05/06 high to the 5/10 low. That was the most since the January contract fell 34% just after December expiration. March fell 22% after the spike into February expiration to the earliest pre – expiration low of the last 14 months (02/11). Expect prompt June to continue the trend of supported prices into expiration. There may be some additional losses prior to the historical monthly prompt trend, expect those to be short lived.