Category: Daily Call

Well, off of a rally on the Holiday light trade, prices retreated yesterday to (basically) where it closed last week. Should trend of rallying into expiration been met– not really– but this is an interesting twist that should be respected. I will be stunned to see the short covering rally similar to the Feb expiration in the March rally but some trader’s expectations surprise me (why has a rallied happened in the last 12 expiration’s except for short covering). Today is options expiration — and lets see what it provides for future movements.

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.48
Major Resistance:$4.664, $4.735, $4.825 $4.879, $5.088

The four day run in prices reversed yesterday after the storage report was released. Though prices did not really collapse until later the morning when folks realized there weren’t a bevy of buyers out there. Unless the folks are going to use the Europe situation as support for the US market (rather bizarre at this point for reasons already discussed) then prices are likely headed to test support. BTW– the Dutch and UK futures market are showing gains yesterday around 7% last time I checked. This is after declines the previous days. Depending on how any conflict is interpreted by the players — expect a test of support $4.25-$4.15 in the near future.

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.48, $4.168
Major Resistance:$4.664, $4.735, $4.825

Not surprised that the gap closed yesterday, but was a little stunned that the gains held though-out the trading day. Now being short, will need to establish stop positions which will include the Dec high of $4.664, Sept low $4.735, or the Oct low $4.825, depending on my risk tolerance. This run is not building on volume as the volume this week (daily basis) is the lowest of the month with the exception being last Feb 1st. Open interest has gained slightly this week but not looking like a large break out of new buyers through out the prompt and upcoming summer. Remaining patient.

Major Support:$4.38, $4.26, $3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support: $4.48
Major Resistance:$4.664, $4.735, $4.825

Discussed earlier that this area around $4.381 seemed, from a technical standpoint , like a reasonable area to enter with shorts or puts. If this rally chases the gap from a week ago, then that also could be considered a reasonable area to enter. If the market fails to close or challenge the gap then you have further evidence (similar to last week) that prices are like headed back to support.

Major Support:$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $4.26, $4.381, $4.46-$4.48

Crude was up, Gas was up guess there are some geopolitical issues that the markets have to define. Putin loves higher crude prices — US producers are loving it and now it has spilled over to the nat gas market— OK– my comments from last fall should come into play about the limitations of LNG cargoes in the US — the again I am a technical analyst not a fundamental guy. Watch the highs from last week to enter from the short side.

Major Support:$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $4.26, $4.381, $4.46-$4.48,

Went into some of the technical analysis from last week’s decline extension in the Weekly Section and am confused as to why prices are higher in early trade on Sunday night. Perhaps it is the same light trade game that has occurred of late on Sunday night. Be careful not to chase to far for there is likely more downside to occur before establishing new length.

Major Support:$4.057-$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $4.46-$4.48,

Guess we’re going to throw the Mar contract under the buss but the up-coming summer strip is not showing the weakness that the prompt contract is. What’s that all about– perhaps folks know that the winter is going to end with the storage well below the 5-year Avg, additionally with the lack of significant new drilling (production) coupled with the LNG demands continuing — perhaps the upcoming summer will provide the potential for stronger prices. There I go again diving into fundamentals– I would look for prices to consolidate in this area ($4.00) before a new directional bias develops.

Major Support:$4.057-$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $4.46-$4.48,

Was startled that the gap was never really challenged yesterday when prices proceeded to bounce higher in the early morning trade. Still expect a challenge to the gap area but the action seems to want to push prices lower. Prices are in the middle of the recent range so sometimes its better to sit on the sidelines and let the momentum develop and define itself.

Major Support: $4.20-$4.186, $4.057-$3.972, $3.734, $3.63, $3.584-$3.522
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $4.46-$4.48, $4.82