Category: Daily Call

Went into the near term trends associated with last week’s reversal in the Weekly section for your review. Even with the $1.00 decline off of the highs on Friday — the marker remains with a bullish bias (last week closed significantly higher even with the decline). While strength on the open may occur — prices are headed for some consolidation and Friday does not reflect consolidation – rather profit taking. For well more than a year every prompt contract has weakened around mid month in its tenure, the earliest was March that traded its pre – expiration low on 02/11; the latest was May which fell from a 04/18 high at 8.065 to a 04/25 low of 6.345. Expect this June’s role as prompt to remain consistent with that pattern.

Major Support:, $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.47-$9.60

So prices reverse on Tuesday only to reverse on Wednesday another $.70+ gain from the lows on Wednesday. Anyone else beginning to smell something fishy associated with this run. Though it was still a higher high, regardless of the cod, and there doesn’t seem to be any price that is not worth buying from a risk standpoint. Pardon me, do it with your money as I will continue to intra day position and be out by the end of the day.

Major Support:, $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $8.47-$9.60

A reversal yesterday after prices rallied above $8.00 to set a new high in this series of higher highs that the market is performing. Now — what — for the reversal to be more significant, the declines will need to continue and not find as many buyers at support (say $7.00). Wait and watch this week– play the day to day game and would not leave positions out there for several days.

Major Support:, $7.00-$6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.536, $8.065

One would have to think that the $8.00 level is in the couple of days trade. This time, the market may not be as over-bought as last time, but the price is already over the 2 standard deviation bollinger study but the previous attempt, prices were over 3 standard deviations over the 20 WK moving Avg. Still have $.50 to go but it is likely that the market will be at similar over-bought levels should it move there. Would keep trade expectations on a “daily” basis as holding for longer term may provide significant risk (see early April).

Major Support:, $6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.536, $8.065

It is not surprising after the 10 minute — $.20 run in prices on late Friday morning (discussed in Weekly section) that prices are showing strength in the early Sunday night action. Wouldn’t think that the “kids” would miss an opportunity like that. Ran all the way to the resistance that prices could not over-come last week– perhaps they will this week. A daily close above that high will bring $8.00 into target.

Major Support:, $6.855, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.422, $7.536

In reference to the Daily yesterday the price movement looks more like the action from March rather than April. Would not be looking to pound from a short side and as the market remains with a bullish bias currently. If you want to be short — look down to $6.66 (April low on Continuous chart) — if you want to be long look to yesterday’s high as an initial target for gains.

Major Support:, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

Yes, I realize it is May but wanted to show the choices that the market has for near term direction. When the April contract took over in March as prompt there was some early softness into a brief rally only to have prices correct back and in the middle of the month retest and consolidate as the low end of the range (short term). Calendar April (with May as prompt) had no such silliness and just took off to higher ground setting a series of higher weekly highs until prices got so over bought, that the $1.40 correction was imminent. What does June do– if it replays last month’s action — rest assure that the $8.00 area is in focus. Should the trade copy March — a retest of the mid-$6.50 area may be coming.

Major Support:, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

What do we say — never bet against a solid trend and the rally into expiration is now rocking along. Have no clue to the range today but I did see that the June contract closed some of the differential while prompt chased over $7.00. Not sure what that is about as the differential to July ended back over $.20.

Major Support:, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536

Mentioned in the web site that the market would have to decide between the weakness from last week’s action or the historical trend of rallying into expiration during the period. Yesterday gave a good early indication of the intentions for expiration. My interests are more focused on the summer contracts (I use July) and they currently are running with the May contract (either side of $.20 differential since the second week in April). It will be interesting to observe the June and July contracts during the May expiration and the initial phase of the June as prompt.

Major Support:, $6.411-$6.392, $6.247-$6.278, $5.27-$5.199, $5.001, $4.40-$4.26, $4.187, $3.972, $3.734
Minor Support: $6.00, $5.063, $5.04, $4.88, $4.60-$4.557
Major Resistance: $7.346 , $7.427, $7.536