Category: Daily Call

This could b a unique expiration as compared to the last twenty+ monthly expiration. So far the current price is just about where it was when price started the week.– What no rally– not sure yet but a great trade position month after month may be coming to break. Does not mean that the trade behavior is not going to happen next month — just means that it may be subtle this month. We will see.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Prices extended lower yesterday only to find support and rally back slightly, closing the day near the highs of the day. This may be the beginning of the recent trend of expiration’s being well bid. Key for today is the options expiration so expect excitement at $7.00 and $6.75. Directional focus will be shown in the Dec, Jan, and Feb contracts as the market defines its upcoming directional bias.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

There was significant technical damage last week and go into the results in the Weekly section. The damage does not end the bull market bias dating back to 2020 but it will make rallies beyond the now well defined resistance very difficult. We are headed into expiration and it is well documented that the market has a tendency to be well-bid.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Prices quieted down yesterday and only traded in a $.34 range from high to low. Mentioned yesterday that the impact of fundamental information may be diminished during this shoulder season. Does not mean there may not be volatility but yesterday provided a brief hiatus to this summer’s radical levels and there may be additional quiet days coming.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.32, $8.45, $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Prices opened Sunday night with $.20 weakness and held that until the full market opened and support started immediately. The rebound took prices to near term resistance and now the market will have to prove the support accurate and carry the gains further. Fundamental issues will have little impact (barring tropical) as the winter forecasts are in place so the impacts are built into the price action.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.32, $8.45, $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

The price action on Thursday and Friday was just brutal (to the downside) as folks figured out that rail strike was not going to happen and then the bears wanted to punish the rally on Friday. Sure looks like prices are headed to $7.00 but not just yet (perhaps after winter becomes defined). If you want to be long the winter into the Q4 — this gives a great chance to establish positions.

Major Support: $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.32, $8.45, $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Hope none of you folks got sucked into that concept two days ago that the “rail strike” would impact gas. The strike was never going to happen as all the powers in Washington were going to see to that event did not happening. The market is basically back to where it was before the rail issue surfaced. Prices are dancing around the 50 day SMA, so that will provide no insight on the future movement– I could see declines to $8.00 and can also suggest prices to $8.50 so no unique technical insight here except the seasonal which historically shows a price rally into the Q4.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $8.325, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$ $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Not exactly sure what hit the market (news) in last hour+ of trade but it got some folks excited. Prices rumble through $9.00 with out much issue and now it seems that prices look to want to test the highs from mid August before the Labor Day decline, I just don’t see the $10.00 level in the immediate future. This is still (for the last year+) a bull market trend so positions should reflect that trend.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $8.325, $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$ $9.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98

Yesterday’s $.30 range in prices was one of the lowest of late and was well below the 14 day Average True Range (ATR) which is currently $.52 in the daily charts. Perhaps, the market is pausing in both directions to evaluate the next round of fundamental information. Until the market decides, work the market with some options as the volatility declines, cheapens the cost of the options.

Major Support: $7.956, $7.55, $7.14, $7.078, $6.88, $6.754,$6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $7.35, $7.41, $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$8.299, $8.58-$8.61, $9.021, $9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.98