Category: Daily Call

Over the last 10 trading days the market has traded in a $.35 range and have little or no interesting in breaking out or down. Where is the love (especially considering the time of the month). What are we going to do here? Discussed in the late Weekly diatribe that the market seems to be “basing” — built into that term is the concept that from this period prices rally. The other term to use is consolidation for this trade — not insinuating the upcoming move is up or down. I believe that price are consolidating but could be basing if the shorts don’t develop the power to extend.

Major Support: $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.67, $3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

Thanks for all the kind wishes over the last couple of days– gas, really, did nothing to catch my attention from bed. Still in the range from last week — but the market does seem to be “basing” here (see the Weekly Update) for some additional tests of resistance. It was informative that the declines on Monday were reversed on Tuesday and the selling ran out of follow through. Seems to be developing a new range near term– for the longer range thoughts bring up today’s Weekly.

Major Support: $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

Tuesday was a higher volume day and was matched yesterday, Now lets look at the storage release and the reaction to it. Would be a buyer on support tests, going into the football weekend,

Major Support: $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

Well– the RSI (weekly) jumped to the lowest level in the last decade– but some traders are irrelevant of that fact and are confirming to some that prices are headed under $2.00 — yee haw. Must admit that this level of bearishness is not to be taken lightly nor relevant to future prices — as the market is setting itself up for a significant short covering episode.

Major Support: $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

That is the mantra for the speculators currently– Over-sold ??? Who cares keep selling. Have to admit one element that has been accurate three of the last four weeks is anticipating bearish storage reports beget more selling which has proven profitable on a day basis. Its been the theme for the month of January and Feb started off singing the same tune. These little tendencies are good for a quick position but would never hold over night due to the general over sold bias discussed of late. Did a look into the nature of who (segment) is selling since the Nov highs and hope to share with you over the weekend.

Major Support: 2.68, $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

Was somewhat startled to see the rally on expiration– almost brought back memories of 2022 expiration’s. The rally to the close up to $3.109 but the March contract was left for dead $.25 lower. Now the market opens on Sunday night and prices are wanting to extend the declines to yet a lower low. Will not say that won’t happen, as natural gas always goes to extremes both up and down. Go into a lot of the technical considerations on the Weekly section– but due to the current condition of the bias would not be adding to bearish positions except on rallies back above $3.00.

Major Support: $2.761, 2.68, $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948